Rupert's Cheltenham

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Might as well keep all my runners in one (probably miserable) place. I posted my 5/2 ante-post on Sprinter Sacre in the other threads (had posted that up back in Jan), which I hope is not a problem, but I'll leave it out here, and only stick in those with current prices available. I sincerely hope it's a good week for us all (as long as that definitely includes me!) Tuesday 1.30 Cheltenham - 2pts win Tetlami @ 12/1 (Hills) I sincerely hope I am not going to regret switching my allegiance at the last minute for this one. I always thought I would be on the side of Montbazon here, but I've been quite impressed with Nicky Henderson's supposed second-string(!). Not a bad hand in the race for him, and despite Darlan looking to have a big chance, I can't have him at the price without seeing him complete last time out. Despite travelling supremely well when coming down in the Betfair hurdle, strong-travelling types have fallen foul here so many times, and when he did complete here, he had to work extremely hard for the narrowest of successes behind a horse you would hope to beat much more comfortably. Despite not having to do too much when winning at Taunton the time before, again the race hasn't worked out, so without seeing him finish to a great degree last time (surely would have had to come off the bridle), I couldn't have him at 5/1. I always preferred the Montbazon/Vulcanite/Mono Man (not entered) formline to the Steps To Freedom/Prospect Wells one, so I'm happy to sidestep Jessie Harrington's charge, and I find assessing Irish form difficult. The ground concerns me for Trifolium, whose sire is 8-31 on heavy (7 others placed), but has mustered up gradually worse strike rates as the ground gets better, with just one 3rd from 8 runners on good-to-firm. Tetlami appears to have the key characteristics you want to look for in the Supreme Novice. He's got speed, he jumps slickly, and sees his races out strongly. He won a listed bumper race here in January 2010, before presumably something was amiss at Aintree in April that year, causing him to miss around 18 months. He travelled well in a decent-looking hurdle race on his first run after this absence, and on his first start over hurdles, at Sandown, and stayed on powerfully to score by 5l. He was not stopping at the finish and it was a top effort with fitness and inexperience against him. The form worked out, too, which is a bonus, as the runner-up won next time out, as did the 3rd, and the 4th lost narrowly before making no mistake last time out. The form I'm really interested in is his effort at Kempton next time. This is where his form ties in with other hopefuls, as he gave 5lbs to Vulcanite. He didn't put the race to bed until between the last two flights in reality, but again he galloped on readily late on to forge 3 1/2l clear. It is difficult to assess my selection against Montbazon here, with the latter winning by 7l (level weights) from Charlie Longsdon's horse last time. Vulcanite was having his first run over hurdles at Kempton, but was getting weight, and connections claim he was ridden too prominently when finishing 2nd last time. On balance, the track perhaps suited Vulcanite better at Kempton too - so on the whole I think I prefer the effort of Henderson's. Since then, Tetlami warmed up for this with a pretty facile win in a jumper's "bumper" at Kempton on the all-weather. He showed his qualities again - travelling strongly before quickening and staying on well to win nicely from a 130-rated rival in 2nd. He's clearly in good order, and the ingredients add up to a big run. Much like last year, however, there are many of these who can come and surprise up the hill, so nothing too radical, but I am fairly keen on this one's chances. 2.40 Cheltenham - 3pts win Our Mick @ 10/1 (Hills) I do like Quantitiveeasing as a horse, and this trip should be perfect for him, but he has to shoulder a lot of weight, and the winner of this race hasn't won off a mark of 150+ for 29 years, so I will sidestep him here and praise his effort should he manage to carry his burden weight to victory. On the contrary, no winners in the last 12 years have won off a mark higher than 143 (the last four winners rated 142 or 143). This doesn't quite bring Our Mick into play, but I won't avoid him for the fact he runs off 144, as he's definitely carrying around the right weight you typically want in this contest. He's still inexperienced at the age of 6, and in his first season chasing, but he's really impressed with his progressive nature over these larger obstacles, and based on his effort last time, his winning may not be done with just yet. Despite this being a competitive handicap chase over 3 miles, novices have won three of the last eight renewals of the race, and this one has had 6 runs over fences so far, and touch wood his jumping can be sound enough here. He's not faultless in that department, but it hasn't held him back, so I just hope he doesn't put in one error too many. He has been really progressive since switching to chasing, and he ran up to his new mark of 142 at Newbury last time over 2m4f. It was the Grade 1 Scilly Isle's chase so he ran off level weights behind a couple of horses higher-rated than him. He kept on doggedly up the straight, rallying to finish just 3l behind the winner, For Non Stop (rated 151), and 1l behind the runner-up Michael Flips (145). Based on this, returning to handicaps, his mark of 144 doesn't necessarily look beyond him. He looks like he may well improve for the extra half-mile here, but he will have to jump well over this longer trip. He's a half-brother to two chasing types - Our Jasper, rated 125 at best, who perhaps didn't quite get home over 3 miles, and Our Jim, rated 116 at best, but won over 3m2f, and my selection here has a more similar pedigree to the latter, as the former was by a sprinter, and therefore I feel the extra trip won't be a problem for McCain's runner here. He looks to have a very solid chance, fitting the trends, and doesn't look impossibly handicapped. He can resume his winning trend here, and therefore gets a fairly chunky win bet on his back. 4.00 Cheltenham - 2pts win Balthazar King @ 12/1 (Bet365) I've read a few bits and bobs which suggest the Hobbs yard are reasonably confident that this horse is going to run well, and is one of their better chances of the week, and therefore looks worth a nibble at a double-figure price. This isn't a race I tend to get too involved in, but with the dominance of Garde Champetre coming to an end it seems, it gives opportunity for some others to come to the fore, and I'll look to a bit of value, despite conceding that those at the head of the market are likely to be bang there. It's possible that Balthazar's King would have been swamped late on anyway when the runners took the wrong course here in December, but he was keeping on in 2nd, and that race came just a fortnight after the Hennessy at Newbury, and he certainly was running well enough to be of interest the next time he faced the unique challenge. He's clearly been prepared for this race, having not been seen since, and his record fresh is also very good. 12111 is his record after a decent absence from the track, and he's also a horse who needs quick ground - as seen when galloping on relentlessly here off 3lbs lower after a break last October, on the conventional course. He stays well, which is obviously a positive in this race, and I really think he has a big chance if the Hobbs yard aren't still in the doldrums. Everything is in his favour with regards to freshness and ground, so I will take a chance at a nice price that he can mix things up and get involved. 4.40 Cheltenham - 0.5pts e/w Kells Belle @ 33/1 (SJ) The only way to play this one is find an each-way bet it seems, and I'll side with Nicky Henderson's mare. Obviously she has plenty to find, but she's a big price, and I think conditions will suit. She stays this trip well, and Cheltenham will play to her strengths I feel, having been outpaced at Kempton two starts back. She's a galloper rather than a glamour horse, which should bode well here. She showed plenty of promise last season before running very well on her return from the summer off when 3rd here in a competitive handicap - staying on well. She was outgunned by a 125-rated animal who used all of its pace to never see another rival, and that sort of race doesn't suit this mare. She wants a good pace at a testing track, and she's got a much better chance of getting that here, and she should be staying on up the hill, but her position at the time is the potential question mark! However, having been outpaced, yet still a decent 4th of 17 at Kempton, she stayed on dourly to beat a nice type of Kim Bailey's at Sandown last time. She had 7lbs to find on that rival, but still won by nearly 2 lengths, and it was an encouraging warm-up for tomorrow's stiff exercise. The runner-up had readily won her previous two races, and the pair were well clear of the rest of the field. She looks the best each-way mare for me at the prices, though nothing silly, obviously. I fancy her to run well, and I hope she sneaks into the frame at a decent price. 5.15 Cheltenham - 2pts win Going Wrong @ 11/1 (Hills) This, quite simply, must be the hardest race of the Festival, in my eyes. I could still be sat here at 5.15 tomorrow and still not have a stronger opinion on it, I reckon. However, I do quite like the profile of Ferdy Murphy's horse here, for the stable who won the race 12 months ago. The fact this one is towards the head of the weights, it doesn't look as concerning as normal, with the field very tightly packed in the handicap (12-0 to 11-4 covers all the runners). You can give sound chances to many of these, but Going Wrong doesn't look impossibly treated on his novice hurdling form from 2009, and has shaped as if he's not lost too much of his ability since returning to the track. He beat Wymott in one of those novice races, a horse now rated 148 over hurdles and 139 over fences, with the pair clear, before going down narrowly to the recently ill-fated 146-rated Bygones Of Brid. On this, a mark of 139 isn't too bad, and he's shown a fondness for chasing this year. He's a typically sound jumper, which always is a big benefit around here, and appears to stay well. The testing nature of Cheltenham should bring out the best in him, and he should be staying on well at the death. His form this year may not be as flashy as some, but after a promising chase debut after 2 years off the track, he scored by 5l at Sedgefield over this trip. Arguably he was held by the leader when that one came to grief at 2 out, but the way my selection finishes his races suggests to me that there was still a fair chance he would have got back up. He wasn't given a hard time between the final two flights, quite readily keeping those behind at bay, and when asked after the last, he kept on strongly. He looked held by a horse who would have won all 4 starts in his career had he stayed on his feet, next time, but stayed on dourly under pressure over the insufficient 2 mile trip to get up close home. He gave Nicky Richard's nice type 7lbs also on that occasion, with the pair clear. Going Wrong looks to be going the right way, and should be fully fit for this, for a yard who thrive in these sort of handicap chases at Cheltenham. He's had a couple of months off, but it does not concern me, and things should really play to his strengths here. The fact he beat a nice type last time, giving weight away, with conditions against him pleases me, and a good pace around here should see him staying on doggedly up the hill, hopefully in first place!

[ExpectTheUnexpected]

Re: Rupert's Cheltenham There's a fantastic trend for Going Wrong, can't recall exact details but inclined to say the trainer has a 40% strike rate in this, despite it being so competitive. Classic bit of skim reading costing me dear when I need to actually remember it. Would expect it to go off at single figures anyway.