How to profit from Betfair horseracing

[jd_fortune]

Here's how to make money in Betfair horse racing, or other sports. Never take the back or lay odds that are on offer. Those are all sucker prices. Wait til it gets close to start time and then piggy back onto the best back or lay offers available at the time. You want people to take YOUR sucker prices rather than you taking theirs. I wouldn't try to get ahead of the other offers, that will only drive the price closer to the true odds. You want nice crappy odds for people to take, so why not simply piggy back onto the best current offers, assuming they have enough overround in them? Granted, if there's a large amount of money already on that price then you might not get to have your money accepted because you're last in line, so just don't use that particular selection. Just choose another one that doesn't have a huge amount of money on it yet. Look for ones that have a fair amount of spread between the back and lay prices, these will usually be in the longer shot range. You won't get much overround in on a favorite, but 3rd, 4th or 5th fav you probably can. With prices from about 2 to 10 (decimal) you would want about a 1 point spread, like 5 as the back price and 6 as the lay price. 10 to 20 you'd want more like 2. As long as it's enough to cover your commission payments plus a little more it's worth getting on board. It doesn't matter whether you choose a back or lay offer to make, though whichever has more overround in the market would be the best candidate. It's probably best to switch back and forth between the two, because you don't know exactly which selections are more off from the true odds in backing or laying. So by switching back and forth between back and lay offers you can even things out more and get a more steady return. It's always nice if you can get back and lays accepted on the same selection, thereby "greening up". There's no way to control that though. It doesn't even matter in the long run. The greening up thing just smooths out the wins and losses fluctuations. In the end it doesn't make any difference in how much profit you make. It would just come in small amounts all the time rather than big lumps here and there. The only thing that really makes any difference is whether the price you offered out and was accepted was the true price (true odds) or not. If someone took your price and it was an overround price (enough to make up for the BF commission and some extra), as they all are in Betfair markets, you can't possibly lose over any significant amount of time. Conversely, if you take any of those prices offered instead of putting your own sucker price in and waiting for someone to take it, you will lose massively. I know, because I tried it. Doesn't matter what horse you take one of those offered prices on, or whether you take a back or lay price, you will just bleed money. Nobody EVER offers a fair price on Betfair, unless they're insane. It's largely bookmakers using Betfair to hedge their books. No bookmaker is going to offer fair prices. So you just do the same as them. Put your money in with their sucker offers and hope yours gets taken along with theirs. This is my view on how to make money in Betfair. I suggest that the only way to succeed at it is to have people take your crappy prices and for you to never accept anyone else's prices, because they will never be fair. The site should actually be called "Betunfair", because that's what it's all about, clipping the suckers just like the bookies do every day. If you ever just click on one of those prices on offer then YOU are the sucker.

[mileni4uk]

Re: How to profit from Betfair horseracing Utter dross!

[Rayzor]

Re: How to profit from Betfair horseracing I think he has made some fair points, actually. But it would be good to give some examples as to how this works in practice.

[richard-westwood]

Re: How to profit from Betfair horseracing i have to admit it sounds like an express train to the poorhouse to me .firstly .....you have no idea of the amount of money that is going to be bet on any particular race so if the punters arent there to start with then your sunk ,and 2nd it presumes you can "true odd" a horse better than every other punter and bookie in the country i.e if you go to betfair and see 2.3 ...how do you know that that 2.3 isnt already the true odds of that horse and your just piggy backing onto an already bad price ?. if you watch on here for a while you will see how you make maoney on betfair i.e you find a horse that has excellent form and a great chance and then you have to place faith in the punters of this country being able to read form ( they are pretty good) and back it at the highest possible price you can find in the country (either betfair or bookies ) then you wait and before the off and if youve done your work right the price will contract when the general population go into the bookies and spot it amongst the poor horses in the race .....then your 10/1 early morning price is no available to lay at 7/1 ....5 mins before the race .if someone lays a price of 7/1 ....hes not a sucker ..hes a champion in this situation and if you come along and back it at 7/1 trying to piggy back the price youve got no where to go as its reached its true price and your just hoping the market fluctuates in your favour .its a nice idea on paper but its what 80% of the punters on betfair already do --try to find differences in prices and get prices taken .....you need to be ahead of the punters ......not in the middle or behind example : saturday the horse i posted had great form and good collateral formlines with other horses in the race .....available with one bookie at 13/2 i thought great once the punters latch on he'll be around 5/1 (my estimate of his true price was 7-2 -4/1 ) before the off he had been bet into 2/1 ....meaning my initial bet of 13/2 was now trading to lay at around 5/2 !!!!(i could quite easily have layed and made a nice profit but decided to let it run )that 5/2 was 2pts below what i estmated his true price to be and if you had come along and backed at 5/2(piggy backed ) then your already well below the true price(and your taking mysucker price to start with) so on an express train to the poorhouse ....the secret is to get the value before everyone else .... thats what happens with the pricewise selctions .......people who get in early and get big prices know that when the papers drop through the doors next day and people back.....the price will contract .....but only until reaches a certain level ...then if you try and back your getting a poor price therefore ...youve got no where to go in essence you trying to second guess the fluctuations in the market and everyone ive seen try has failed

[Machine]

Re: How to profit from Betfair horseracing Cant wait for part 2 :eyes :eyes

[richard-westwood]

Re: How to profit from Betfair horseracing lol......im not saying it cant work .......its just the idea seems flawed to begin with