Flat Racing 5th March

[chris34]

Off to sunny Southwell tomorrow for a good competitive card with 3 runners for the http://rodmillmanracingclub.co.uk 2.10 Southwell Desperately weak affair to kick things off. Royal Crest is lightly raced for a 6yr old and does have course form but in no great order when last seen and off the track for 571 days a big worry although Fanning an eye catching booking so will be interesting to see what he looks like in paddock. Tenancy has been well beaten recently but goes well here but something to prove at present. Similar story for Mnarani aswell and although blinkers refitted today has something to prove. Bonnie Prince Blue has been in rapid decline for this yard at present as is his mark which does offer some hope but all recent wins have come in sellers and claimers and again has a lot to prove at present. Sopran Nad is a rare runner away from Wolves for this yard and that is probably because he does handle the surface well, but disappointing when seen here in december and no better next time out at Wolves on 1st run for this yard. Odd Ball has found some form again recently but they have come in some desperately weak affairs and he isnt the most straightforward individual often races lazily and likes to come off the pace which is often hard work around here and crept up 2lb for latest finishing effort at Wolves and step up in trip might suit. Fearless Poet looked a horse to follow on this surface having won a nursery here last december but generally disappointed and found it hard to win in slightly stronger races but did step up last month to take a 7f handicap at Kempton off a 4lb lower mark has been running as if still in good form last 2 runs when doing too much in front, should go well returned to this surface in a weak race. 3pt win Fearless Poet 2/1 vc 2.40 Southwell A competitive flying 5f sprint over Southwells famous straight! Scott Dixons pair both warrant respect but yard very quiet all of a sudden after a good start to his career, Suddenly Susan won on penultimate start off a 6lb lower mark but unlikely to get a soft lead here and all wins have been over 6f. La Capriosa is VERY dangerously handicapped but well out of shape this winter and stall 1 far from ideal and is now eligible for lower class races than this. Dancing Freddy just keeps finding a few better treated at present and been kept very busy this winter. Love You Louis ran with some credit on seeasonal reappearance over CD, similar run last time out but does have a good record fresh so may not go on from that and draw not helpful today. Punching has had 24 runs at this trip without a win and recent form figures come in course seller/claimers in 6f races where he was warranted to finish 2nd, not badly treated but hard to see him winning over this trip against proven performers. Shawkantango is a CD specialist with 4 wins from 8 runs, scored narrowly away from this venue last month at Wolves went up 3lb for that and now requires a career best off a 1lb higher mark than he has ever won off over a track that might not quite be running to suit with so much rain but has to be respected around here. No Mean Trick is of interest returned here, he beat Shawkantango in a photo the last time the 2 met over CD he is 1lb worse off today but excused latest 2 runs when getting away slowly and unable to get to the front, could be capable of more around here if breaking on terms. Wreningham is another respected back here, making it 2 from 3 over CD end of last year for new yard easy to excuse last run when race more off the pace than usual, has been given a short break since and if fully wound up after a couple months off could still be open to improvement on this surface from a good draw in the middle. 1pt win Wreningham 7/1 bet365 1pt win No Mean Trick 13/2 pp 3.10 Southwell Not the most interesting race, Transonic has been well below his best this winter a despite looking well in here on his OR. River Ardeche has it all to do off a top weight but does go well here. Clara Zetkin has a chance at the weights but well held on last 3 starts and now has it all to prove aswell as handling this surface. Should be straightforward for Standpoint who won a course handicap last time out proving his well being and porbably just about bets treated on OR's so hard to look elsewhere. 3.40 Southwell We have Irish Jugger running for the http://rodmillmanracingclub.co.uk and although well handicapped on his best form he hasnt exactly shaped as if about to win and can only be a small interest bet just incase first time blinkers have desired effects. Ace Serve has shown promise in maidens to date including around here last time out but will need to come on for the run to take a hand in this sort of race. Magic Millie has progressed well on the surface this winter with 2 wins, excused latest effort here in a selling handicap when racing well off the pace but still ran well, went to prove that next time out at Wolves over this trip winning, set a tough ask in conditions race last time out disappointing to see her run quite as bad as she did though and yard very quiet at present with a career high mark to contend with. First Rock handles the surface well but been disappointing last 2 runs, and although only 2lb above last winning mark he may have just gone over the top at present. Storm Hawk could bounce back from a disappointing effort last time out and has to having won back to back handicaps here in december but a 7lb rise in the weights may have been what found him out. Mediterranean Sea could well be very hard to beat on a surface he relishes and appears to be going from strength to strength on this surface, winning over a shorter trip than ideal last time out a further 4lb rise in the weights of course makes things harder but this isnt that strong of race for the grade and could well continue to defy handicapper in current mood around here. 0.5pt win Irish Jugger 10/1 vc 2.5pt win Mediterranean Sea 9/4 bet365 4.10 Southwell Weak affair again, and another runner for http://rodmillmanracingclub.co.uk with Mustajed who appears to go well for Pat Millman having travelled well in a race run to suit last month, not so good under a penalty in a race which wasnt run to suit so can be excused perhaps but with age he has become inconsistent but this race might just be run to suit with several of the ones running out of the handicap have made the running before and with Kingaroo and Yours in the lineup should assure a good gallop and if bouncing back from disappointment last time out could go well. Kingaroo is potentially well treated on her best form but hasnt travelled with any fluency in recent races and attitude now called into question for me. Magic Haze has been running in stronger races than this but hasnt exactly looked like a winner waiting to happen when weakening out of it last time out and has dropped to last winning mark but would like to see a little more. 1pt win Mustajed 7/2 bet365 4.40 Southwell Mcconnell in good form in seller and claimers but will need to be right back to his best off this sort of mark back in handicap company. Great Expectations would be dangerous to dismiss, he travelled really well in a weak 6 runner maiden over 7f around here on only 2nd career start that was a dreadfully weak affair and on the face of that a mark of 75 could be a little harsh but a lot to like about the way he travelled but may just find these battle hardened handicappers a little too much on just his 3rd start on this surface facing the kick back. Colour Guard would hold every chance return here after last weeks apprentice handicap win having escaped a penalty, but this race is a lot stronger and given he was held in this grade previously (did blow start slightly but otherwise no obvious excuse) does dampen enthusiasm at 5/4 for me and there is clearly value elsewhere. Masai Moon is http://rodmillmanracingclub.co.uk final runner on a busy afternoon and he would hold every chance had he not been drawn in the worst stall of the lot over this in stall 1 over a mile. That said he should go well at a very tasty looking EW price he travelled extremely well last time out over 7f at Kempton before only just narrowly being beaten, only up 2lb and given the way he travelled and the way they pulled away from a decent field means he probably isnt handicapped out of things and still 5lb below last winning mark, does find winning hard these days but good record around here and clearly in good heart at the moment and looks a good EW bet if overcoming the death box go on James get him off that rail ;)!! Beautifal Day is returning from a short break from a yard that has been a little quiet recently although did manage a 7/1 winner in a maiden last week which looked well in itself so perhaps turning the corner and their runners often go well at this track. He pulled 7 lengths clear under a penalty last time out having made him 3 from 4 around here and looks a specialist, 10lb rise is perhaps a tad harsh given the lack of strength in depth of the races he won but even so he remains unexposed on this surface and could go on if returning in same form. 1pt win Beautifal Day 4/1 vc 1pt e/w Masai Moon 10/1 vc 5.10 Southwell The get out stakes, and nothing to get excited about! Tamino has return to some sort of form recently but isnt the most consistent and would be no sure thing to back up recent efforts returned to here. Transmit is another that has become frustrating having come to late on last 2 starts on poltrack failed to build on those efforts returned to this surface last time out, 2lb lower again today but fear is he'l find 1 or 2 pinching too much out of him. Bond Blade is one of the more interesting runners given his record on this surface and relatively lightly raced, won a seller at 20/1 last autumn over 5f, shaped much better last time out over CD although still well held and must now back that up off a 1lb lower mark could well do so but hard to win from off the pace around here. For me Itsthursdayalready could well get back on the scoreboard, went well on return to here on penultimate start when staying on behind the unexposed/well handicapped Silly Billy they pulled well clear of the rest of the field that day and that was a more competitive race than this and a 2lb rise doesnt look that harsh, easy to forgive run last time out on polytrack never been so good and return here off last winning mark should go well. 2pt win Itsthursdayalready 4/1 bet365