FLAT RACING WEDS 29TH FEB

[richard-westwood]

6.35 KEMP : not much out tomorrow and this a toughish little race to weigh up valmina 87 the wee chief 84 yankee storm 81 sermons mount 88 any of the above could potentially win this so need to narrow it down ......valmina has been running well but is 5lbs above last win and drawn 10 so double negative .the wee chief won lto takes a -6 weight and +4 hcap so could still be competitive ? yankee storm met trouble in running (78) and finished well so could be dangerous but 9/2 looks a bit cramped which leaves me puzzled as to sermons mounts chances against the above horses .....he ran a good race over 6f at ling .....then didnt do brilliantly lto but was running well up to the 6 pole (faded last furlong over 7f) so could be forgiven ....takes a -2 weight -1 hcap so is now quite well hcapped and has nice draw in 3 and is 3x the price of the fav at 12/1 with william hill so looks the best all round value bet to me 1pt e.w sermons mount 12/1 will hill( and hope that last run was just a step too far)

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: FLAT RACING WEDS 29TH FEB

6.35 KEMP : not much out tomorrow and this a toughish little race to weigh up valmina 87 the wee chief 84 yankee storm 81 sermons mount 88 any of the above could potentially win this so need to narrow it down ......valmina has been running well but is 5lbs above last win and drawn 10 so double negative .the wee chief won lto takes a -6 weight and +4 hcap so could still be competitive ? yankee storm met trouble in running (78) and finished well so could be dangerous but 9/2 looks a bit cramped which leaves me puzzled as to sermons mounts chances against the above horses .....he ran a good race over 6f at ling .....then didnt do brilliantly lto but was running well up to the 6 pole (faded last furlong over 7f) so could be forgiven ....takes a -2 weight -1 hcap so is now quite well hcapped and has nice draw in 3 and is 3x the price of the fav at 12/1 with william hill so looks the best all round value bet to me 1pt e.w sermons mount 12/1 will hill( and hope that last run was just a step too far)

Good stuff richard,looking at racing post sermons mount 11-1 is definately the pick,atr is Dunmore Boy 10-1.Italian boy is getting hammered into 5-1.what is interesting about these three is that they where well supported in previous races.As you say sermons mount is well drawn but i would always favour lawernce taylor and dunmore boy dropping back in trip if it can overcome its poor draw and get out quickly could go close.interesting to watch market tomorrow.good luck richard.