Statto corner

[bowles10]

I need a page of stats so i will post mine here, you are welcome to join me. My trends will be on my normnal thread in ATR each day of the festival but there are a number of stats i have compiled which i hope you will find beneficial Does Festival form count? 2011 Results showing the winner had previous festival form from previous year Day 1 (6 races as Cross Country not counted) Supreme – Winner Al Ferof 10/1 ( Bumper 2010) Stewart Chase – Winner Bensalem 5/1 (fell William Hill Trophy 2010) Mares Hurdle – Winner Quevega 5/6 (1st mares hurdle 2010) Day 2 (4 races as Neptune, Fred Winter and Bumper not counted) National Hunt Chase – Winner Chicago Grey 5/1 (22nd Coral Cup) RSA chase – Winner Bostons Angel 16/1 (PU Albert Bartlett) Queen Mother Chase – Winner Sizing Europe 10/1 (1st Arkle) Coral Cup – Winner Carlito Brigante 16/1 (4th Triumph) Day 3 (6 races) Jewson Novices – Winner Noble Prince 4/1 (5th County) Pertemps – Winner Buena Vista 20/1 (1st Pertemps) Ryan Air – Winner Albertas Run 6/1 (1st Ryanair) World Hurdle – Winner Big Bucks 10/11 (1st World Hurdle) Day 4 (5 races as Triumph and Foxhunters not counted) Gold Cup – Winner Long Run 7/2 (3rd RSA) Grand Annual – Winner Oiseau de Nuit 40/1 (PU Grand Annual) I do not know the number of runners in each race that would qualify however i still believe festival form is important in the races where horses have run at a previous festival. 21 races, 13 winners @ 10/1, 5/1, 5/6, 5/1, 16/1, 10/1, 16/1, 4/1, 20/1, 6/1, 10/11, 7/2, 40/1. 5 of the races won by horses that won at last years festival

[bowles10]

Re: Statto corner [TABLE=class: MsoNormalTable]

[TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] HCAP CHASES

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[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] AGE

[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] SP

[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] BRED

[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 2010 FORM

[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 5/1 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] IRE [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] Fell [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 10/1 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] FR [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]

[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 25/1 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]

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[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 10/3 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]

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[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 40/1 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] FR [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] PU [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[TABLE=class: MsoNormalTable] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] HCAP HURDLES

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[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] AGE

[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] SP

[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] BRED

[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 2010 FORM

[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 16/1 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] IRE [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 4^th [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 20/1 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] IRE [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 1^st [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 5 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 10/1 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]

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[TABLE=class: MsoNormalTable] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] NOV HURDLES

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[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] AGE

[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] SP

[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] BRED

[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 2010 FORM

[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 10/1 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] FR [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 1^st [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 7/1 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] IRE [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]

[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 15/8 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] IRE [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]

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[TABLE=class: MsoNormalTable] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] NOV CHASES

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[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] AGE

[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] SP

[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] BRED

[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 2010 FORM

[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 10/1 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] FR [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]

[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 4/1 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] GER [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 5^th [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[TABLE=class: MsoNormalTable] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] GRADE 1 HURDLES

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[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] AGE

[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] SP

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[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 2010 FORM

[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 11/4 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] IRE [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]

[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 10/11 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] FR [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 1st [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[TABLE=class: MsoNormalTable] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] GRADE 1 CHASES

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[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] AGE

[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] SP

[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] BRED

[/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 2010 FORM

[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 6/1 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] IRE [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent]

[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 7 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 16/1 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] IRE [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] PU [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 9 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 10/1 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] IRE [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 1^st [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 10 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 6/1 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] IRE [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 1^st [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 7/2 [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] FR [/TD] [TD=width: 154, bgcolor: transparent] 3rd [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[bowles10]

Re: Statto corner The previous post wont edit for some reason The tables show last years winners split into the type of race with age, SP, breeding and previous years festival run listed for info interesting how the Grade 1 chases are only won by FR & IRE bred horses, as they are favoured at Cheltenham

[bowles10]

Re: Statto corner What characteristics do you need to win at Cheltenham? Last 2 years shown below but is a regular occurence at the festival Day 1 2010 4 out of 6 races were winners LTO (other 2 were 2nd & 4th) 4 out of 6 races winner ran Jan or Feb LTO Day 2 2010 5 out of 7 races were winners LTO (other 2 were 2nd and unpl) 7 out of 7 races winner ran Jan or Feb LTO Day 3 2010 3 out of 6 races were winners LTO (other 3 were 2nd, 4th & 8th) 5 out of 6 races winner ran Jan or Feb LTO Day 4 2010 2 out of 7 races were winners LTO (other 5 were 0,4,5,U,5) 6 out of 7 races winner Jan or Feb LTO Winners or 2nd LTO 17 from 26 races Jan or Feb LTO 22 from 26 races ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Day 1 2011 5 out of 7 were winners LTO (other 2 were 2nd & 8th) 6 out of 7 ran Jan of Feb LTO 5 out of 6 winners ran 3-5 times in the season (other one was Quevega) Day 2 2011 3 out of 7 were winners LTO (other 4 were 5,3,2,7) 7 out of 7 ran Jan or Feb LTO 6 out of 7 winners ran 2-5 times in the season Day 3 2011 2 out of 6 were winners LTO (other 4 were 2,2,0,P) 5 out of 6 ran Jan or Feb LTO 4 out of 6 ran 2-5 times in the season Day 4 2011 6 out of 7 winners LTO (other 1 was 3rd) 7 out of 7 winners ran Jan or Feb LTO 6 out of 7 winners ran 1-5 times in the season Winners or 2nd LTO - 20 from 27 races Jan or Feb LTO - 25 from 27 races Ran no more than 5 times - 21 from 27 races ignore at your peril

[bowles10]

Re: Statto corner Festival form does the business again Cinders and ashes 10/1 (5th) Sprinter sacre 10/11 (3rd) Rock on Ruby 11/1 (2nd) all ran last year but none won Alfie sherrin 14/1 (10th Pertemps 2 years ago!)

[RussP]

Re: Statto corner I'm going to prove unpopular here but I have to question trends. These can be amended from year to year, to best suit the current situation. Let's just take today as an example and the 2 key trends above (ie, Jan/Feb lto and 1st or 2nd lto). Out of the 109 runners today, 94 of them had run in Jan/Feb lto. That, to me, ain't a trend!!! In fact, the only trend to take out of today is to back horses that haven't run in Jan/Feb lto, that would have proved a profitable strategy. Race by race, here are the stats: 1 of 19 not run in Jan/Feb - unplaced 1 of 6 - 2nd 13/2 2 of 19 - 4th 6/1 2 of 10 - WON 11/1, 2nd 20/1 7 of 16 - WON 11/1, 3rd 33/1 2 of 19 - WON 4/7 3 of 20 - 2nd 14/1 Pretty good, don't you think? Looking at those finishing 1st or 2nd lto, you'd have had to back 53 of the 109 runners. Yes, you'd have had 5 winners but it would have come nowhere near to covering your stakes. Moreover, in the 2 races where you didn't have to cover almost 50% of the field, both winners had finished outside the 1st 2 lto. Realistically, these were the only 2 races where you could have covered all horses under that stat, you'd have taken 8 bets and not one of the 8 finished in the places (first 4). Race by race: 12 out 19 finished 1st or 2nd lto - 10/1 winner 3 out of 6 - 8/11 winner 4 out of 19 - no return 8 out of 10 - 11/1 winner 4 out of 16 - no return 9 out of 19 - 4/7 winner 13 out of 20 - 13/2 winner Essentially, a loss in 6 of the 7 races. 4 horses won today that ran at last years festival. Nice stuff but 2 were odds on and I'm not sure how many there were that fit the bill, a lot I would think. Whilst I'm not saying trends are worthless, you do have to be careful how you use them. For me, these 2 stats mean nothing as, in general, it covers a vast proportion of the field. It's a bit like saying "horses with 4 legs do well". Good luck to anyone that uses them. They are not for me.

[bowles10]

Re: Statto corner

Whilst I'm not saying trends are worthless, you do have to be careful how you use them. For me, these 2 stats mean nothing as, in general, it covers a vast proportion of the field. It's a bit like saying "horses with 4 legs do well". Good luck to anyone that uses them. They are not for me.

you make a lot of good points Russ. There is always a flip side to looking at trends and i think its how you use them. I use those stats to narrow down the fields as i dont expect to pick every winner over the week but want to work with a smaller racecard. Your proof above shows that the racecards could have been even smaller had you avoided the jan/feb stat etc. The stats dont lie do they. Thanks for putting an alternative view across. Take Hold on Julio today for example, personally i couldnt have it with your money, although it had the 1st LTO and Jan/Feb stat, i didnt want to touch it as i didnt think the horse could win. So Opinions, formlines etc are still important. Good luck for the week

[bowles10]

Re: Statto corner Fri 1. Feb LTO, 5 runs, 3rd LTO 2. Feb LTO, 7 runs, unpl LTO 3. Feb LTO, 4 runs, 1st LTO 4. Dec LTO, 3 runs, 1st LTO 5. Feb LTO, 2 runs, 1st LTO 6. Feb LTO, 5 runs, 1st LTO 7. Feb LTO, 3 runs, 1st LTO Make of these what you will, apart from the GC, all 6 winners ran in Feb LTO and 5 were LTO winners. As RussP said, we can make stats to fit, however my profile of 2-5 runs, Jan/Feb LTO and 1-2-3 LTO gives you a decent shortlist to pick from. Other days to come...

[bowles10]

Re: Statto corner Thurs 1. Jan LTO, 3 runs, 1st LTO 2. Feb LTO, 5 runs, 4th LTO 3. Feb LTO, 1 run, 1st LTO 4. Jan LTO, 3 runs, 1st LTO 5. Dec LTO, 1 run, unpl LTO 6. Feb LTO, 3 runs, unpl LTO

[bowles10]

Re: Statto corner Weds 1. Feb LTO, 5 runs, 1st LTO 2. Feb LTO, 3 runs, 1st LTO 3. Feb LTO, 3 runs, 2nd LTO 4. Jan LTO, 2 runs, 2nd LTO 5. Jan LTO, 4 runs, unpl LTO 6. Feb LTO, 3 runs, 4th LTO 7. Jan LTO, 2 runs, 1st LTO

[mowgli77]

Re: Statto corner The problem with stats is how they are interpreted. I've seen it recently on the BCFC forum with people discussing our form. When broken down into month by month or 10 game blocks it looks very different. In horse racing the stats give you an idea of a profile but that then needs researching further and the problem with a lot of trends/stats guys is they don't want to put that effort and research in, trends are a quick and easy way to pick a horse but how can you discount a horse because of a stat if your own eyes tell you the horse has a great chance and is overpriced but doesn't "fit the trends"? Favourites have a poor record in the Arkle - what were the favourites, what was their profile, were they actually false favourites. Sprinter Sacre lined up as favourite this year and on what we had witnessed with our own eyes it would be madness to discount it on a favourites record. Horses aged 10 and over don't win Gold Cups - how many have actually tried? Those stats can be very skewed unless they have been researched properly. You could have a Gold Cup of 12 runners, 5 aged 7, 4 aged 8, 2 aged 9 and 1 aged 10. What are the chances of the race being won by a horse aged 7 or 8? I like the idea of using sets of trends to help create a winners profile and they can be useful when used properly but I did 2 years stats as part of a degree and know exactly how they can be manipulated to make a point. Form study and race reading will always be my preferred methods but I find some of the trends/stats interesting, especially in the handicaps. If we could use past results to predict future events the casinos would have gone bust and we'd all win the lottery. :lol

[bowles10]

Re: Statto corner phil, how would you assess therefore a flat race with 20 runners, where the draw had thrown up 10 years in a row low numbers 1-10, would you be confident to ignoe the 11-20 drawn horses as your argument above would come into play again, how good were the horses drawn high, were they mainly outsiders etc etc for me the trend of the race would say low drawn horses are favoured. There would be the obvious draw bias for that track as this would no doubt say the same if repeated over other races. is a trend a stat, i think is the question also?

[mowgli77]

Re: Statto corner

phil, how would you assess therefore a flat race with 20 runners, where the draw had thrown up 10 years in a row low numbers 1-10, would you be confident to ignoe the 11-20 drawn horses as your argument above would come into play again, how good were the horses drawn high, were they mainly outsiders etc etc for me the trend of the race would say low drawn horses are favoured. There would be the obvious draw bias for that track as this would no doubt say the same if repeated over other races. is a trend a stat, i think is the question also?

A selection of statistics makes up a trend. Interesting that you mention the draw as it is something I looked at very seriously last year in France (I think it was at Longchamp) and just how much a high draw is an inconvenience so I looked into it and found that a lot of the favoured runners were drawn high and still placed nowhere. I got those draw stats from the racecaller website and then used the RP site to go back through previous races (French Guineas etc). The draw stat would depend on the length of the race and the running style of the horse. If a high draw was a disadvantage for example and there was an early bend it might put me off backing a horse that needs to race prominently or track the leaders. It would not be as important if it was a hold up horse under Jamie Spencer that needed to be settled behind other runners and delivered late. As you also say you have to consider the horses that were drawn low/high at the time. If the horse drawn 1-10 were all single figures and the horses drawn 11-20 were 20-1 to 100-1 it would obviously skew the results. I remember seeing an advert years ago on TV for Burger King where they had text on screen to say something along the lines of 75% of people interviewed preferred Burger King to other fast food venues/burger bars. I also remember the stats teacher mentioning the same advert and saying the people interviewed were probably leaving Burger King as they were stopped by the man with a clipboard. It's like you standing outside Loftus Road and asking 100 football fans who their favourite team in London is. :D You know where I'm coming from with it. By the way none of this is a dig at you. The most annoying person in racing with stats is Mr Hindsight, Nick Mordin. His weekly column in the Weekender used to be quite interesting but it is now hindsight based on what has already passed and used to try and predict future events, based mainly on stats run through raceform interactive. There is also a regular trends column in th Weekender for the main weekend races (usually bottom left of the page) but this guy does a lot of good research into the stats. It's definitely worth a read and is a very good use of trends. They can be a useful tool to assist but should be used alongside form study and race reading rather than instead of them for me. :ok Thinking outside the cliches of racing and having an alternative view can make you look a numpty but can also make you profit. I know about 3 people that said Grands Crus wouldn't stay. Pipe still says it wasn't a stamina issue but he also said when Scudamore asked it for an effort there was nothing there. For me that would suggest the tank was on empty rather than the horse was wrong. It might stay better on a flat track, wouldn't surprise me to see it go to Aintree and win. (By the way, Wyse Hill Teabags had colic) :(

[bowles10]

Re: Statto corner ive said about Grand Crus to a number of people, I would come back in November and win the Hennessey with it. It runs well there and could be force next year with a campaign that can take in that race and perhaps the KG? That will prove it can stay but it is another horse that Cheltenham claimed in terms of getting up the flaming hill. Take the gold cup winner for example, always pushed along and then flew home. Pearl swan was another eyecatcher in the last half a mile, came form last to challenge at the last only to fall, otherwise it was odds on for a place i think

[bowles10]

Re: Statto corner by the way phil, i like these opposing views, and i think there is a good debate that can be had about these things. I've decided to spend more time looking into the methods etc to see how they suit each track

[mowgli77]

Re: Statto corner

ive said about Grand Crus to a number of people' date=' I would come back in November and win the Hennessey with it. It runs well there and could be force next year with a campaign that can take in that race and perhaps the KG? That will prove it can stay but it is another horse that Cheltenham claimed in terms of getting up the flaming hill. Take the gold cup winner for example, always pushed along and then flew home. Pearl swan was another eyecatcher in the last half a mile, came form last to challenge at the last only to fall, otherwise it was odds on for a place i think[/quote'] You have a very valid point but it's the way it's framed. The "doesn't get up the hill" is a cliche that they attached to Sprinter Sacre based on its performance as a hurdler and before a breathing operation. What you say has substance but look at it another way - the uphill finish (the hill) actually blunts speed and the emphasis is on stamina rather than speed. Take Hurricane Fly as an example, flat tracks in Ireland, comes cruising on the bridle, powers away in the last half furlong or so, can't be beaten. Look at it at Cheltenham and actually watch the CH it won, pushed along and battled to victory against Peddlers Cross, very different to its usual races but battled and had guts that day. They showed this replay a few times on RUK on the morning of the race and it made me think HF still had a good chance but was not an odds on shot. What you say about Synchronised is right too, emphasis on stamina right at the end of the race. Even other jockeys said they thought it had no chance, never travelled at all but AP wouldn't give up on it, the stubborn twat. :lol You'd also say Kauto was a fair few pounds better at Kempton than Cheltenham. I'd also point out that Riverside Theatre could be a bet for the King George but maybe not such a good bet for the Gold Cup yet if he wins the KG he'll be much shorter for the Gold Cup by the festival. You often mention "Cheltenham form" and you have a point but a lot of trials are run here. What I look at is nhow a horse finished its races here and that's why I went for Pearl Swan yesterday. Held up previously and came with a late run, yesterday for me it didn't like the ground, had a rounded movement but still came late and was closing at the finish. Boston Bob had never experienced Cheltenham but more importantly had never won over 3m, I went for Sea Of Thunder as a main bet due to how it finished here previously (before falling) and Brindisi Breeze as a smaller bet (list horse to follow) but felt the fav had to be taken on in terms of value. A lot of the horses that ran well but didn't finish well could go to Aintree and gain compensation but it suits prominent runners there (chasers). By the way did you see Captain Sunshine earlier? That could be anything but looked like a decent sort and odds on suggests they knew it too. One for the list, see how it goes against better horses. :ok

[billvernon]

Re: Statto corner I think you can use Stats and Trends as a quick guide in some cases its obvious the Stat may not be viable this time - e.g the Sprinter Sacre (Favourite Trend) race He was the best rated horse in the race in over 25 years that in itself should have been a big sign post.Obviously you are going to get exceptions to the general trwends - Last year Long Run 6 year old wins Gold Cup first since 1963 - But I had it because it followed all the other trends .It was in hot form and the Horses it was against the main protagonists were over 10 years old a trend that worked again this year. I think its how you interpret and use them .In the case of Sprinter Sacre - Al Ferof was the threat he was behind on OR ratings and recent speed figures - Another trend was that Supreme winners in races next year do not really follow up . I took that into account and also his 3rd behind Finian's Rainbow and Somersby.I knew Somersby was just running to form his last OR figures had stayed the same for his last 6 races.So I was not overly impressed with the race that Al Ferof was in . Yes Finians rainbow won this year but in my mind he had ran a good 2nd last year in the Arkle .(That was why I was on him in the Champion Chase) Last year a lot of the fancied horses had not ran in the last couple of months before the Cheltenham Festival and the majority of them lost .This year because of the good weather there was a high percentage of runners that had run in the trend period.But still a few trends worked. I use them as a guide to trim the field down - I found them useful this year . And i am definetly going to keep referring to them. You will always get exceptions to the rules - Synchronised filled a lot of Trends he had a Grade 1 race (Lexus) and ran on good and was within the OR Rating Trend I looked at him but I crossed him off due to his speed figures (my mistake) It was reported also that it was a particularly poor Lexus - I personally think Long Run should have won if he had been on his A Game but this season he is just not in the form of the last. I think it takes a while to get over winning a Gold Cup that is why its rare to have a follow up in it. If Long Run comes back next season I would not dismiss him next year. McCoy even admitted that Synchronised was not a Gold Cup type horse - if you watch the race he was cajoling and literally carrying the damned horse to ensure he was there at the end.He knew he would stay up the hill. Kauto's fall definetly affected him - I think if both him and Long run had been fit and in good form it would have been between them both . Basically you have to use all infomation and deduce the best outcome on the variables - There were a hell of a lot of trends that stayed the same this year and worked well.Also a few were broken. I used trends to get Brindisi Breeze and Attaglance . I roughly guessed that Henderson would have his hoses in form for the Grand Annual and Had Bellvano , Tanks for that and Anquetta in small e/w bets . No trends just a deduction .It worked. I got rid of a lot of dross using trends and common sense .