LFC5X Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I am sure that I am not the first to think of this. It's simple just bet on 2 favourite teams to win in a double. I tend to go for odds of around 1.4 because any lower than the bet is not worth it imo (I never bet less than 1.75) Also two teams at 1.4 usually doubles your money which is always nice. I wrote this up for me to keep a track of the results before I starting betting large amounts of money but I thought I may as well share it with the forum. In bold are who I'm thinking off for the rest of this week, I will bump this thread at the end of the week to see how I got on. (All bets are with William Hill) Tuesday: Bosnia v Brazil - 1.4 Swindon v Burton - 1.4 Double odds - 1.96 Wednesday: Oman v Thailand - 1.40 Montenegro v Iceland - 1.44 Double odds - 2.02 Thursday: Flamengo v Boavista - 1.45 Sau Paulo v Americana - 1.30 Double odds - 1.89 Friday: CFR Cluj v Tirgu Mures - 1.30 Derry v Bohemians - 1.50 Double odds - 1.95 Saturday: Dynamo Bucharest v Gaz Metan Medias - 1.45 Lille v Auxerre - 1.33 Double odds - 1.98 Sunday: Wellington v Gold Coast - 1.57 Eintracht Frankfurt v Energie Cottbus - 1.40 Double odds - 2.20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Re: Simple Doubles Any other selection criteria, apart from the odds? Good luck :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LFC5X Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Re: Simple Doubles Any other selection criteria' date= apart from the odds? Good luck :ok Nope, obviously doing a bit of research on your selections would help. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Re: Simple Doubles What is the average overround used by William Hill ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LFC5X Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Re: Simple Doubles I'm not too sure mate, I'm in college ATM so I can't calculate it as all betting sites are blocked. Also I have a tip for people not wanting to read through all the odds, just go to the page where it shows all the matches for that day press CTRL+F then just search for whatever odds you want :)...shame I only realised this after reading every match this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Re: Simple Doubles At least you seem to know there is such a thing called overround. Bosnie v Brazil: 9.00 - 4.20 - 1.40 ( 1/9.00 + 1/4.20 + 1/1.40 ) = 1.0635 overround 6.35% ( William Hill almost never goes below 6%, lower leagues it's 8%-12% ) Therefore if you stake 100 divided on each selection in such a way that each returns the same profit you would... Selection: 1 Bet 10.45 @ 9.00 = 94.05 Selection: 2 Bet 22.39 @ 4.20 = 94.03 Selection: 3 Bet 67.16 @ 1.40 = 94.02 Total Bet =100 Return =94.02 Profit =-5.98 ...lose about 6% of your stake. Agree ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maltstar Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Re: Simple Doubles Good luck mate I'm following you :) I have a similar strategy but only for home teams Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LFC5X Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Re: Simple Doubles I may know what the overround is but that doesn't mean I fully understand it. :) Surely every bookmaker has a negative overround? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LFC5X Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Re: Simple Doubles Good luck mate I'm following you :) I have a similar strategy but only for home teams I would be interested to know How is your strategy going? Also beside the Brazil game, most of the teams are at home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Re: Simple Doubles Surely every bookmaker has a negative overround? They wouldn't be bookmakers if they didn't have one. I may know what the overround is but that doesn't mean I fully understand it. It's pretty basic maths. In the given example do you agree you lose 6% when betting on each outcome ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LFC5X Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Re: Simple Doubles Yes I agree with the 6% loss, I'll read more into overrounds when I get home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Re: Simple Doubles So if you go to William Hill and bet on any random thing your expected return is, on average, at least a 6% loss on your stake. Another way of saying this is that the odds are too low for the expected result. Take an event with 2 outcomes expected to be 50/50. The mathematical odds, also called "true odds", on this are 2.00 However there's no profit in it for the bookmaker is there. So he applies 6% overround and the odds offered become: 1.88 In other words bet on both outcomes evenly and you always lose 6% Selection: 1 Bet 50 @ 1.88 = 94 Selection: 2 Bet 50 @ 1.88 = 94 Total Bet =100 Return =94 Profit = -6 Bet 100 times and get 50 losers and 50 winners and... losers: 50 x 10 @ 1.88 = -500 winners: 50 x 10 @ 1.88 = 440 total stake = 100 x 10 = 1000 profit = -60 Assuming you are still with me another question... if you bet on something with an expectation of 6% loss on average, and you then multiply that with another bet also with a 6% loss expected on average, what is the expected yield of that double, on average ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LFC5X Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Re: Simple Doubles I think I calculated it right, I'm fairly new to all this stuff I have only been betting for 3/4 months (legally for 2 week) If I were to stick £1 on each bet, then my max winnings are £12. 12% of 12= 1.44 so my yeold is 10.66? / 4.66? Thats probably totally wrong but yeh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Re: Simple Doubles If I were to stick £1 on each bet, then my max winnings are £12. 12% of 12= 1.44 so my yeold is 10.66? / 4.66? :unsure different planet i think :lol Let's simply state it's more than -6%, and increases even further the more bets are added. Multiply negative expectations and the result is always a bigger negative. On the first bet you lose 6% and on that result you lose another 6%... simply put that's more than 6% overall. Start with a bank of 100, place 1 point per bet, and you will see that bank gradually decrease at a rate of -6%(+) until it's all gone. I suggest you actually do this but without real money, just a paper trail, until you see the pattern. I am sure that I am not the first to think of this. Indeed, those before you are called bookmakers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LFC5X Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Re: Simple Doubles :unsure different planet i think :lol Let's simply state it's more than -6%, and increases even further the more bets are added. Multiply negative expectations and the result is always a bigger negative. On the first bet you lose 6% and on that result you lose another 6%... simply put that's more than 6% overall. Start with a bank of 100, place 1 point per bet, and you will see that bank gradually decrease at a rate of -6%(+) until it's all gone. I suggest you actually do this but without real money, just a paper trail, until you see the pattern. Ok I'd lack to thank you for explaining all this too me :) (well trying too) And I was planning on doing a paper trail anyway Indeed' date=' those before you are called bookmakers.[/quote'] That's my business brain coming through :p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maltstar Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Re: Simple Doubles I think what Datapunter is saying is maybe look for odds that give you a combined double of 2.00 or maybe bet differently on each selection depending on the odds? am i right datapunter? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Re: Simple Doubles I think what Datapunter is saying is maybe look for odds that give you a combined double of 2.00 or maybe bet differently on each selection depending on the odds? o dear, no matter which way you turn that it changes nothing to the expectation of a 6% loss. doubles only increases that ( 1 - ( .94 * .94 ) ) = 0.1164 = expected result -11.64% As long as your bets are random, or in this case as good as random, regardless of the odds or stake, your expected profit is the same as the bookmaker overround. In this example a steady -6%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maltstar Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Re: Simple Doubles I get what you mean now, that's assuming 50% of the bets will lose isn't it? maybe betting on doubles that give a total of 2.00 or more.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LFC5X Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Re: Simple Doubles I've updated Wednesday (Montenegro's odds slipped, so I replaced with Oman). Both Swindon and Brazil won tonight :) Starting Bank - 100 Stake - 10 Return - 19.60 Ending Bank - 109.60 Profit so far - 9.60 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maltstar Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Re: Simple Doubles nice 1 matey, Brazil with a injury time winner did it for you. Fingers crossed for you tommoz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Re: Simple Doubles Read the forum rules. There's no editing of posts with selections. ( bloody teenagers again always breaking the rules ) I've updated Wednesday (Montenegro's odds slipped, so I replaced with Oman). So you know a bookmaker where you can place a bet and then go back the next day and cancel it ? I don't think so. You can add Oman but Montenegro stays a bet. The list of bets are posted as bets placed, and therefore all stand. You can post them as a shortlist but then you need to state that that is the case and you need to confirm the actual bets made from the shortlist in new posts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LFC5X Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 Re: Simple Doubles Read the forum rules. There's no editing of posts with selections. ( bloody teenagers again always breaking the rules ) So you know a bookmaker where you can place a bet and then go back the next day and cancel it ? I don't think so. You can add Oman but Montenegro stays a bet. The list of bets are posted as bets placed, and therefore all stand. You can post them as a shortlist but then you need to state that that is the case and you need to confirm the actual bets made from the shortlist in new posts. Why would I bet for a match on Sunday, the Sunday before-hand? That just makes no sense. If I was going to be doing this I would place the bet for Montenegro at my closest available time to kick-off, which was the time I edited the post. I never once mentioned the bets were placed,I don't know where you got that idea from. Oman have already won, Ecuador don't kick off until midnight :eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Re: Simple Doubles Mate, don't play games with me. In bold are my selections for the rest of this week, I will bump this thread at the end of the week to see how I got on. (All bets are with William Hill) That is a statement of bets placed. In bold are who I'm thinking off for the rest of this week, I will bump this thread at the end of the week to see how I got on. (All bets are with William Hill) Which you now edited to this. Second time you edited a post with selections. So you had one bet so far. Be totally clear about what consists of a shortlist and what is to be considered an actual bet. btw. its totally valid to place a bet the week before if you feel there is a good price available at that time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LFC5X Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 Re: Simple Doubles Mate, don't play games with me. That is a statement of bets placed. Which you now edited to this. Second time you edited a post with selections. So you had one bet so far. Be totally clear about what consists of a shortlist and what is to be considered an actual bet. Mate you trippin? Been on that dutch special? :p Ya got me, just did it to annoy ya....Will change op back and keep a record of other bets I would have and publish them at the end of the week...Montenegro 1-0 up with 10 to go btw. btw. its totally valid to place a bet the week before if you feel there is a good price available at that time. I agree it is but who would actually do it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Re: Simple Doubles and publish them at the end of the week It's called after-eventing. All bets to be placed before kick-off. READ THE F-ing RULES. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LFC5X Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 Re: Simple Doubles It's called after-eventing. All bets to be placed before kick-off. READ THE F-ing RULES. They're for my personal use, If you don't wish to use them don't. You aint being forced too. Anyway an update on Montenegro since somebody seems to be on PMT :p Starting Bank - 109.60 Stake - 10 Return - 20.20 Profit - 10.20 Ending Bank - 129.8 Profit so far - 19.8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Re: Simple Doubles This doesn't work mate, you are totally ambiguous in the bets posted. I take it you've had 2 bets now. Tuesday: Bosnia v Brazil - 1.4 Swindon v Burton - 1.4 Double odds - 1.96 Stake - 10 Return - 19.60 Profit - 9.60 Wednesday: Oman v Thailand - 1.40 Montenegro v Iceland - 1.44 Double odds - 2.02 Stake - 10 Return - 20.20 Profit - 10.20 Start bank: 100 Total staked: 20 Current Bank - 119.8 Stick to the rules of the forum, they're the same for everyone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maltstar Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Re: Simple Doubles are you a mod datapunter? chillax dude, he's new. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophocles Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Re: Simple Doubles Good luck with your system. I wish you the best. My only comment is that in the future, in order to avoid any misunderstandings, only place your recommendation when you will actually record it in your journal and it is "set in stone". For example, I have a short list for the weekend from my systems. I have not posted it though in my thread because I will be placing the bets tommorrow and will have my final odds. Tommorrow, I will post my selections and leave it as such. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Re: Simple Doubles are you a mod datapunter? chillax dude' date=' he's new.[/quote'] Of course Datapunter's a Mod..... you signed up in November last year - I thought you would have realised who the PL Mods are by now. And one of the jobs of the Mods (you could say a Mod-Job) is to make sure everybody follows the "rules", otherwise the Forum would degenerate into chaos. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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