FLAT RACING MONDAY 27TH FEB

[richard-westwood]

fully operational now so can start to focus on making some profits this year ......may not get much chance in the morning so will post this early and update prices etc later when they come online 2.30 wolv monday fair passion 87 +6 hcap + weight kyladdie 92 level level draw 4 yourlikemefrank 86 +10 weight catalyze 87 -6weight -1 hcap shawkatango 82 this looks a 2 horse race on paper between kyladdie (ridden by jamie spencer) draw 4 and catalyze (very well weighted ) draw 1 .....both are evenly matched with marginal preference for catalyze draw 1 .i will be looking for prices around 9/2 for the win catalyze (or 11/2 e.w ) and 11-2-6/1 kyladdie .if i can back both at decent prices to win then that will be preferable but will see what the bookies/betfair offer later and update update ....greenhead high has beaten catalyze at southwell and is fav for that reason but none of them have form at wolverhampton so this is a test of the new standards really as catalyze is better on faster courses than southwell ....betfair are offering catalyze at 9.0 and kyladdie at 8.2 so 2pts win on both as prices exceed what i was looking for

[chris34]

Re: FLAT RACING MONDAY 27TH FEB 2.30 Wolverhampton You will not see any tougher races than this one on the AW circuit, a few unknowns in the field some inform sorts and some with a little to prove but more than capable of bouncing back. Tombi has joined a team that does well with other yards casts off but yard are in just a little bit of a quiet spell at the moment and has something to prove back in handicaps off this sort of mark. Dancing Freddy has been generally consistent this winter but 0 from 8 around here and much stronger form on the turf than polytrack which has to be the concern. Absa Lutte will appreciate a decent gallop that is likely and only up 2lb for latest win last time out but best form has come from around Kempton and wide draw extremely off putting in this field. Yourelikemefrank is an interesting one but might just need this first run for over a year for new trainer despite yard being in good form, he was last seen last winter winning 3 times over this trip around Lingfield, but all ratings including speed ratings and RPR he is several lbs better around there than he is here. Blown It would be of interest from a better draw, won really easily over CD before turned out under a penalty 10 days later and was given a dreadful ride having looked to be travelling well, again turned out quickly next day and was well below par that time and may just be a case that came to soon and if he is over those runs he would have to be respected from just a 4lb higher mark than the win having travelled well off a 2lb higher mark on penultimate start but wide draw and yard form are enough to put me off this time round and is more a watching brief with him. Greenhead High has been in great form recently but that has been on fibresand and this is a totally different task under an apprentice I personally dont rate and needs to find a lot more back on polytrack having previously shown little on this surface. Perlachy is only a 1lb higher for winning penultimate start but ran a really disappointing race next time out under a 6lb penalty, will need to bounce back and produce a career best under this sort of mark. Fair Passion scored 5 days ago over this trip at Kempton and runs under a 6lb penalty and that now mean she requires a career best off top weight in a very competitive event she is perhaps less exposed than most but even so a big ask. For me Kylladdie offers a little bit of value, only had 2 runs this winter so comes here fresher than most and should be reaching peak fitness, well drawn in stall 4 and caught the eye travelling well at Lingfield last time out over 6f, winner got first run that day although 2nd came from same position as Kylladdie so not really an excuse, he has dropped down the weights and although still 2lb higher than last win he still looks competitive off this sort of mark returned to 5f and the faster they go up front the better chance he has which you would expect in this sort of field. 2pt win Kylladdie 7/1 bet365 4.00 Wolverhampton Country Road has been running below his OR in claimers recently so has something to prove and is a bit of a character. Boa is reunited with Hayley Turner today and she has gone well under her recently but looks handicapped upto her best on recent evidence and unlikely to get a soft lead against better handicapped rivals Honourable Knight won last time out but that was an awful race and a 6lb rise looks a tad harsh and although open to more improvement really is going to need to find a lot more in this company. Royal Alcor and Illustrious Forest meet on very similar terms as they did when Illustrious Forest won, he was probably kicked for home a little early and was wandering about in the final furlong or so but as soon as Royal Alcor got close he appeared to rally again and warrants the up most respect off a 6lb higher mark Royal Alcor is only 3lb higher BUT promising apprentice takes off 7lb today taking that into account Illustrious Forest is a 1lb better off today and has really found his feet since switched to CD handicaps and looks on a sharp improve at the moment and looks sure to go well again. 5pt win Illustrious Forest 2/1 vc 4.30 Wolverhampton Wouldnt usually go near an apprentice handicap but this is quite an interesting one with a horse I have been watching this winter and backed a few times. Black Coffee won this race last year off this mark but was in better order this time last year. He ran a promising race on penultimate start on first start for nearly 3 months finishing well but was bitterly disappointing at Kempton last time out and a bounce back called for now returned to this venue which is very possible, yard form has been rather sporadic this winter so hard to assess. Master Of Dance was behind Patriotic last time out and didnt shape as if a win was around the corner and doesnt shaped as if this step up in trip is ideal. Patriotic was impressive albeit in a 5 runner event last time out not getting a clear run at all but showed a great attitude to squeeze through and score a tad cosily, up 6lb for that effort and inexperienced pilot on board today and doesnt exactly look a novice ride despite potentially still being ahead of the handicapper. Vanilla Rum bounced back from a disappointing run last time out when scoring comfortably last week beating Aviso who has since won over jumps, this is a stronger race and now 16lb higher than first win of this winter, but well treated on bits and pieces of form but never been the most reliable and that is a worry at a short price. For me Honey Of A Kitten has to be of interest at a tasty price, rated in the 90's in Ireland and made a good start for this yard on the AW at backend of last year but quickly lost his way since, but dropping significantly in the handicap and shaped much better last time out when staying on under a french pilot could be more at home in a slightly less competitive event and under one of the most experienced jockeys in this field and further 2lb lower in the weights and yard in good form. 1pt win Honey Of A Kitten 9/1 bet365 (best price available now 8/1)