freddie1 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I'm going to paper trail an unders system that I read about the other day.It's incredibly simple in that you start from the last two weeks of January and back unders in matches where both teams are in the top six. Will use level stakes of 10 points a bet. 25/2 Middlesborough v Reading 1.63 Charlton v Stevenage 1.80 26/2 Sheff Wed v Sheff Utd 1.96 27/2 Shrewsbury v Crawley 1.81 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stho1978 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Re: Back end of season unders system Do you mean under 1.5 goals? Good luck btw. Steve Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freddie1 Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 Re: Back end of season unders system I should have stated that it's under 2.5 goals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freddie1 Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Re: Back end of season unders system A very pleasing start with three out of the four ending as winning bets. Middlesborough v Reading 0-2 Charlton v Stevenage 2-0 Sheff Wed v Sheff Utd 1-0 Shrewsbury v Crawley 2-1 Staked 40.00 Returns 53.90 Profit 13.90 Yield 35% Championship +6.30 League 1 +17.60 League 2 -10.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Re: Back end of season unders system Nice start, Patthecat. One question..... are you not including the English Premiership? If so, I think you should have selected Arsenal (5th before last weekend) and Tottenham (3rd). Score.... slightly over 2.5 :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freddie1 Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Re: Back end of season unders system Yes they should have been included Grex. I have an awful habit of making mistakes when I post but I really wanted to share this. I'm sure it stated all English Leagues when I read it. Updated figures... Staked 50.00 Returns 53.90 Profit 3.90 Yield 8% Premiership -10.00 Championship +6.30 League 1 +17.60 League 2 -10.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Re: Back end of season unders system :clapGood start patthecat. Yes they should have been included Grex. I have an awful habit of making mistakes when I post but I really wanted to share this. I'm sure it stated all English Leagues when I read it. Yes, I read that too (a readers' letter in the RFO) but one important thing you forgot (apart from Arsenal v Spurs!) is that under 2.5 needs to be backed at betfair odds, which the author claims have resulted in 17% profit over the past 4 seasons, and exactly 0% at bookmaker's best prices. The main earner of his system was to back 0-0 & 1-1 at betfair odds, which he claims resulted in 29% profit, 7% at best bookmakers odds. The system should be run from the last 2 weeks of January till the end of march. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freddie1 Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 Re: Back end of season unders system :clapGood start patthecat. Yes, I read that too (a readers' letter in the RFO) but one important thing you forgot (apart from Arsenal v Spurs!) is that under 2.5 needs to be backed at betfair odds, which the author claims have resulted in 17% profit over the past 4 seasons, and exactly 0% at bookmaker's best prices. The main earner of his system was to back 0-0 & 1-1 at betfair odds, which he claims resulted in 29% profit, 7% at best bookmakers odds. The system should be run from the last 2 weeks of January till the end of march. This has turned into an almighty cock-up.:rollin May as well keep it going anyway to see what happens. Crawley v Torquay 1.94 Cardiff v West Ham 1.85 Tottenham v Man Utd 2.15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freddie1 Posted March 5, 2012 Author Share Posted March 5, 2012 Re: Back end of season unders system Southend v Crawley 1.96 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freddie1 Posted March 6, 2012 Author Share Posted March 6, 2012 Re: Back end of season unders system Crawley v Torquay 0-1 Cardiff v West Ham 0-2 Tottenham v Man Utd 1-3 Southend v Crawley 0-0 Staked 90.00 Returns 111.40 Profit 21.40 Yield 24% Premiership -20.00 Championship 14.80 League 1 17.60 League 2 -0.60 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freddie1 Posted March 6, 2012 Author Share Posted March 6, 2012 Re: Back end of season unders system 07/03 Wrexham v Luton 1.83 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freddie1 Posted March 7, 2012 Author Share Posted March 7, 2012 Re: Back end of season unders system Wrexham v Luton 2-0 Staked 100.00 Returns 129.70 Profit 29.70 Yield 30% Premiership -20.00 Championship 14.80 League 1 17.60 League 2 -0.60 Conference 8.30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freddie1 Posted March 8, 2012 Author Share Posted March 8, 2012 Re: Back end of season unders system Sat Charlton v Notts County 2.00 Swindon v Cheltenham 1.87 Mon Arsenal v Newcastle 2.43 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freddie1 Posted March 14, 2012 Author Share Posted March 14, 2012 Re: Back end of season unders system Sat Charlton v Notts County 2.00 2-4 Swindon v Cheltenham 1.87 1-0 Mon Arsenal v Newcastle 2.43 2-1 Staked 130.00 Returns 148.40 Profit 18.40 Yield 14% Premiership -30.00 Championship 14.80 League 1 7.60 League 2 17.70 Conference 8.30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freddie1 Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 Re: Back end of season unders system Sat Notts County v Sheff Wed 1.94 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freddie1 Posted March 20, 2012 Author Share Posted March 20, 2012 Re: Back end of season unders system Notts County v Sheff Wed 1.94 1-2 Staked 140.00 Returns 148.40 Profit 8.40 Yield 6% Premiership -30.00 Championship 14.80 League 1 -2.40 League 2 17.70 Conference 8.30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freddie1 Posted March 20, 2012 Author Share Posted March 20, 2012 Re: Back end of season unders system West Ham v Middlesborough 1.92 Notts County v Sheff Utd 1.88 Swindon v Torquay 1.83 Shrewsbury v Cheltenham 1.80 Man City v Chelsea 2.04 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freddie1 Posted March 22, 2012 Author Share Posted March 22, 2012 Re: Back end of season unders system West Ham v Middlesborough 1.92 1-1 Notts County v Sheff Utd 1.88 2-5 Swindon v Torquay 1.83 2-0 Shrewsbury v Cheltenham 1.80 2-0 Man City v Chelsea 2.04 2-1 Staked 190.00 Returns 203.90 Profit 13.90 Yield 7% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freddie1 Posted March 22, 2012 Author Share Posted March 22, 2012 Re: Back end of season unders system Premiership -40.00 Championship 24.00 League 1 -12.40 League 2 34.00 Conference 8.30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nervous Anorak Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 Re: Back end of season unders system Premiership -40.00 Championship 24.00 League 1 -12.40 League 2 34.00 Conference 8.30 Good thread P, but your figures are proof as I've said many times that 2.5 is impossible to make good profit from in the long run, other than in Argentina. Have you seen my thread on U 3.5/4.5's ? If not then take a look. As harsh as it sounds and this is going to upset a lot of people, but I know from experience : 2.5 is invariably a mug punters selection which is why bookmakers offer it to you as their first choice margin. Effectively they know in the long term you will not win anything meaningful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freddie1 Posted March 22, 2012 Author Share Posted March 22, 2012 Re: Back end of season unders system Good thread P, but your figures are proof as I've said many times that 2.5 is impossible to make good profit from in the long run, other than in Argentina. Have you seen my thread on U 3.5/4.5's ? If not then take a look. As harsh as it sounds and this is going to upset a lot of people, but I know from experience : 2.5 is invariably a mug punters selection which is why bookmakers offer it to you as their first choice margin. Effectively they know in the long term you will not win anything meaningful. Will take a look Nervous. Unders/Overs is not a market I play at all tbh but think it's worth carrying on just to see how it ends up as I'm not placing money on these bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freddie1 Posted March 23, 2012 Author Share Posted March 23, 2012 Re: Back end of season unders system Chelsea v Tottenham 2.20 Reading v Blackpool 2.23 Huddersfield v Charlton 1.86 Fleetwood v Mansfield 2.34 York v Southport 2.10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nervous Anorak Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 Re: Back end of season unders system I'll be amazed if you make profit out of that bunch. All 5 of them look to me they could go Unders or Overs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freddie1 Posted March 26, 2012 Author Share Posted March 26, 2012 Re: Back end of season unders system Chelsea v Tottenham 2.20 0-0 Reading v Blackpool 2.23 3-1 Huddersfield v Charlton 1.86 1-0 Fleetwood v Mansfield 2.34 2-0 York v Southport 2.10 1-2 Staked 240.00 Returns 267.90 Profit 27.90 Yield 12% Premiership -28.00 Championship 14.00 League 1 -3.80 League 2 34.00 Conference 8.30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freddie1 Posted March 27, 2012 Author Share Posted March 27, 2012 Re: Back end of season unders system MK Dons v Carlisle 2.10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freddie1 Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 Re: Back end of season unders system MK Dons v Carlisle 2.10 1-2 Luton v York 1.95 West Ham v Reading 1.77 Brighton v Middlesborough 1.68 Carlisle v Huddersfield 2.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freddie1 Posted April 3, 2012 Author Share Posted April 3, 2012 Re: Back end of season unders system MK Dons v Carlisle 2.10 1-2 Luton v York 1.95 1-2 West Ham v Reading 1.77 2-4 Brighton v Middlesborough 1.68 1-1 Carlisle v Huddersfield 2.00 2-1 Staked 290.00 Returns 284.70 Profit -5.30 Yield -2% Premiership -28.00 Championship 10.80 League 1 -23.80 League 2 34.00 Conference 1.70 As nervous has stated it's almost impossible to make decent money at this and the figures are starting to back him up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Re: Back end of season unders system Staked 290.00 Returns 284.70 Profit -5.30 Yield -2% Premiership -28.00 Championship 10.80 League 1 -23.80 League 2 34.00 Conference 1.70 As nervous has stated it's almost impossible to make decent money at this and the figures are starting to back him up. Although it's largely a failure of the Premiership games to go under, which doesn't surprise me. Premiership has been skewing over this season in general, and I should point out the obvious, that situationally the Premiership is different from lower leagues, in that the top six don't promote anyplace. They're playing for the title or for spots in Europe (and money in all cases), but there simply isn't as much of an impulse to defend a 1-0 advantage or play carefully for a draw when playing a direct rival. So, personally, I think it makes some sense to play the lower leagues...you should find out how the letter writer's results have broken down over the past four years by league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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