Banner Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Hey guys Iv came up with a new system not yet tested! All my bets will be placed on Betfair, I am also using this to keep record of the system :D Yes yes, I know many of you will say its a bad idea and to stop doing it but I am only paper trading and would like to see the results :D How this system will work I will only be laying the underdogs where the home favourites are up to the odds of 1.85 generally and lay £10 on the underdogs to make £10 Profit. My liability is likely to be between £50-£250 a bet so the liability is massive!! Orignally I was going to back the home favourites with the Draw No bet system, But i realised that laying the underdogs would be better values as if its a draw I would still win £10! Any Improvements? If you have any suggestions please suggest them or any constructive criticism let me know! Also if you have any statistics that could help that would be appreciated. The Results! All of these figures are from the day previous days results and will be updated after current bets have finished! Profit/Loss: Total Stake: Yeild: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Re: Draw No Bet System! Lay the team on betfair for proper system as draw no bet on bookies is awful compared to this and would not reflect true best value of the system Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banner Posted February 21, 2012 Author Share Posted February 21, 2012 Re: Draw No Bet System! Ahhh Ok thanks Mate! Ill look it up, make sense actually! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Re: Draw No Bet System! Above bet the draw too i mean for money back unless the draw no bet is truely same odds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banner Posted February 21, 2012 Author Share Posted February 21, 2012 Re: Draw No Bet System! Yes it makes more sense to lay the away outsider! If it was to be a draw I would make an extra £10, and I would only have an extra £10 Liability! Thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banner Posted February 21, 2012 Author Share Posted February 21, 2012 Re: Draw No Bet System! Here are Tomorrows bets then! Thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Re: Lay the Underdog! Odds on game looked at before were 5.1 for outsider and 1.33 draw nobet so 41quid for 10 draw or fav win and 31 for the win or a draw so extra 10 risked for a draw to win 10 really up to you how you do it :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leony Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Re: Lay the Underdog! If you add a column called liability ((odds-1)*stake) you can use that to calculate the ROI of your system. If your interested in that sort of thing. ROI=profit/liability (written as a percentage). Good luck with your new system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Re: Lay the Underdog! Hi, Banner.... I am a bit confused (as usual). :p For today's selections is the “₤10” your stake or your liability. For example, for the Celtic-Dunfermline game (quoted lay odds of 25.0), is your liability limited to ₤10 (i.e. a stake of ₤0.42), or are you staking to win ₤10 (less commission) with a liability of ₤240? :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Re: Lay the Underdog! is the “₤10” your stake or your liability. For example' date= for the Celtic-Dunfermline game (quoted lay odds of 25.0), is your liability limited to ₤10 (i.e. a stake of ₤0.42), or are you staking to win ₤10 (less commission) with a liability of ₤240? :loon lay £10 on the underdogs to make £10 Profit. My liability is likely to be between £50-£250 a bet so the liability is massive!! ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Re: Lay the Underdog! Thanks, Froment..... that will teach me to read all posts ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banner Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 Re: Lay the Underdog! Thanks for the advice guys! Added liability Leon Obviously the ROI/Yeild Will be very low due to high liability! So far today 3 out of 3 wins which will be needed to make a profit! Also i wont be betting on the majority of Europa league games as there are usually a few shocks in there! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Re: Lay the Underdog! Have you done any research or are you blindly laying every single selection that meets the criteria again? What happens when a selection that has long odds wins? With the liability being greater you'd be fcuked :lol Putting it simply. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banner Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 Re: Lay the Underdog! Yes Yes I know, I like to do paper trading as my research rather than looking at all previous patterns in the system and I have noted down the leagues this time so I will know which ones do the best and which ones dont :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sawyer Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Re: Lay the Underdog! Good luck mate! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Re: Lay the Underdog! Yes Yes I know' date=' I like to do paper trading as my research rather than looking at all previous patterns in the system and I have noted down the leagues this time so I will know which ones do the best and which ones dont :)[/quote'] But you are looking at previous patterns :unsure Or, at least you will be looking at previous patterns, just in the future. + the odds you're laying on the away side vary greatly, so you're asking which leagues statisticly produce fewer away sides winning at odds of greater than 4. The end results will be inconclusive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banner Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 Re: Lay the Underdog! Yer I suppose, but why will it be inconclusive? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banner Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 Re: Lay the Underdog! 8 Wins and 1 Loss So we are currently in £28 of profit! Fortunately the loss was the lowest liability of £42! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Re: Lay the Underdog! Yer I suppose' date=' but why will it be inconclusive?[/quote'] Because it won't tell you which leagues fare better because the odds variance is so great. Maybe inconclusive isn't 100% correct, what it will show you is how one team will win at long odds in any league that will decimate your profit. You'd be surprised at how many away sides win at odds of 4 - 6 also. I just don't see the point in paper trailing, when you can sit for a few hours and go through previous records using football-data.co.uk... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banner Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 Re: Lay the Underdog! Yes you make a fair point mate! Ill be doing that from now on! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paparainbow Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Re: Lay the Underdog! getting a liability of 50-250 gbp in order to ear 10 gbp sounds bad to me. statistically 1/5 games will not go as you plan, so in long term you will loose the money eae=rn in previous games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Re: Lay the Underdog! statistically 1/5 games will not go as you plan Where did you get that statistics? :unsure in long term you will loose the money eae=rn in previous games. I'm sure you cannot draw such a general conclusion on that - it depends on your selection system and the odds you take! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paparainbow Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Re: Lay the Underdog! well what is was thinking is that the majority of 3-way patterns for favorite team of 1,85 give the underdog an odd of 4,50-5,50 which means (for the shake of simplicity think 100% probs without overound) a probability of 20% or 1/5 in other words.. maybe this is a naive approach, but since the majority of bookies are usually consistent with each other and they are correct in the long run, the underdog wins approximately 1 out of 5 similar games.. If someone nevertheless is searching for wrongly priced underdogs, then we speak about value betting, which is a whole different strategy. I hope i am clear regarding my thinking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Re: Lay the Underdog! Thanks for explanation, Paparainbow. In that first post you didn't mention those specific odds, so I thought you said that generally 1/5 of all matches goes wrong; but it's clear now, and of course I share your opinion! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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