Jump Racing; Saturday 18th February

[Lars]

TULLAMORE DEW (14:25) is perhaps a horse who can’t live up to his current handicap rating and needs a fair bit of slack but I think if he replicates a similar sort of effort to last time here over 2m6f, when unseating two out, then he has a chance in a wide open race. Of course, he’ll need to jump better but had done so quite well (for him at least) previous to that and I think if he gets round in one piece, he’s better than his current rating of 137. Although never having actually won in a handicap, he ran a bold race over 2m5f at the Festival last year when plugging on well after being outpaced, shaping as in today’s 3m trip was within range. This season’s efforts haven’t been as promising on first look, having failed to complete 2/4 over the bigger obstacles and been beaten by 19 lengths or more when he had. That being said, he was still going fairly well in the Paddy Power Chase when falling and his effort in the Hennessey wasn’t disgraceful either. He was too free really in the early stages and although well-beaten, did show enough to me at least that he could make an impact over a slightly shorter trip. His first go at 3m in Handicap Company over fences shouldn’t be taken too seriously, as he was still probably feeling the effects of his previous effort in the Hennessey two weeks earlier. Although it may just seem that I’m making up excuses for this one and not providing any sort of encouragement to back him, I do think he’s worth a chance at double figure odds. Even though he’s 2lbs out of the handicap, he still has scope at this trip of improving on his rating, having not really had a fair crack of the whip at this distance. Although a tough contest to break his handicap duck in, his jumping was much better last time (apart from the blunder two out) and he’s shaped in the not too distant past that he has the ability to make a big impression in this sort of contest. It is also likely that the yard will be extra determined to get a big-race victory, especially after the recent death of Jack Gifford, and the yard’s only runner in the meantime finished second, so the yard still shape as in a bit of form. Tullamore Dew isn’t one for the upmost faith, but has the ability and the rating to run a big race here today. POWERSTATION ran a massive race on quick enough ground for him nowadays in the Irish Christmas Hurdle and returned to suitably soft conditions, he can outrun his double figure price-tag as he still shapes to have enough ability to challenge the principles here, even though he’s 12 years old. A grand servant for connections, been placed in two World Hurdles behind Big Bucks and running cracking races at the festival in handicaps prior to that, so the travel across the Irish Sea won’t phase him in any way. Although having looked like he was regressing in the early part of 2011, he returned to form in decent fashion at Navan in December, winning a handicap in these sorts of conditions quite well. He did take plenty of persuading with the whip, which might be a cause for concern in this country but he stuck to his task gamely and especially when he was conceding a lot of weight to the majority of his rivals, it was definitely a return to form. That was only off a mark of 135, but he’s subsequently shaped in two starts that he’s still a fair way better than that, once in a handicap off 6lbs higher over an inadequate trip, and then in the aforementioned Christmas Hurdle, running well for a long way on good ground, which at his age might just be a bit too quick for him. He plugged on well enough and definitely outran his mark of 141 last time out. Although he’ll have to step up slightly once again, he really enjoys these conditions and wouldn’t need to run a career best to win here, as I’m not entirely convinced that this is as strong a race as people are making out, especially with doubts about some with the testing ground. Powerstation is a high-class performer on his day and still looks to retain plenty of that ability, he’ll go well on the ground and this trip is perfect for him. The weights as they are will suit better than a handicap and he’s definitely overpriced at 14/1, as I had him at about a 9/1 chance. The likes of Featherbed Lane are priced about right (small doubts about the trip on this ground and at 13/8, it’s easy to oppose) but this testing ground definitely has the scope to cause an upset and Powerstation won’t stop trying to the line, a key attribute in this sort of contest. It is minimum bet stuff but one that should definitely run its race and go well. ALWAYS RIGHT had been on a constant curve of improvement since entering handicaps from the Hunter Chase scene but ran an absolute stinker last time in the Rowland Meyrick, his first poor performance for some time. Although no reason at the time was given for the effort, it has subsequently been found that he was suffering from a virus, and the way he dropped out pretty quickly suggested all was not well. With positive reports about his health aplenty, he is still capable of improving off this mark of 147 in ground that he handles. A multiple winner at around 3 miles on both good and soft ground, he’s more than capable of staying this 3m4f trip, having run very well in the Scottish Grand National off 5lbs lower than his current mark, seemingly staying every yard of the nigh on 4 mile distance. It was a cracking effort and showed that he was very genuine, and had the stamina to compete in these marathon events. Subject of huge support for his seasonal reappearance at Kelso , he scored in game fashion on testing ground after being hard pressed in the closing stages. It showed that he continues to handle the ground and that he might need a bit further to be at his absolute best. Although the Rowland Meyrick run was disappointing and dampens confidence a bit, especially as if he was coming into this race straight from Kelso, he’d be much shorter than he is today. As an excuse has come to light, he’s worth giving another chance to and there’s definitely scope for him to run a performance around the 160 mark at some point. Connections will be keen for him to run a big race, especially as they’ll need to decide whether Aintree is just a pipe-dream and the current price of 15/2 with the bookmakers is worthy of investment, especially as I feel there’s still more to come from him. What’s more appealing is the 10/1+ available on Betfair presently, so if that price is available then I wouldn’t discourage staking a little bit on the exchanges, although the bookmakers are likely to follow suit at some point if it stays that big on Betfair. He should run really well though if all is well with him, as I don’t have any fears regarding the ground/trip/handicap mark and feel he’s good enough to go very close. Bets 14:25 Ascot – Tullamore Dew; 2pts @ 14/1 Boylesports (bog) 14:45 Haydock – Powerstation; 1pt @ 14/1 BetVictor (bog) 15:25 Haydock – Always Right; 2pts @ 15/2 Boylesports (bog) [bigger available on Betfair]

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jump Racing; Saturday 18th February 4.10 Wincanton - 4pts win Theatre Guide @ 7/2 (Bet365) Posted this before the meeting was abandoned last time:

2.00 Leicester - Theatre Guide (Will post price once available) Colin Tizzard's horse may not appear a real value bet at a probable price of around 2/1, but I think he's well capable of beating the 117-rated yardstick here in Strongly Suggested - who is yet to prove he stays the trip totally. I wouldn't be ruling out Madame Allsorts either, but I feel Theatre Guide is a horse who can really go places over hurdles. He shaped with promise when running green in a 1m6f Warwick 'bumper', and confirmed this with a dour victory over 2 miles at Chepstow. He looked like he was going to be swamped on either side at one point but he really stayed on strongly between rivals to score by 2 lengths come the line. It was a decent field, with useful hurdler Magnifique Etoile (who received 10lbs) in 2nd with another nice type in Grove Pride back in 3rd. Themilanhorse - 7 lengths behind my selection - has also been running well over hurdles. Tizzard sent him over to Ireland to compete in a valuable NH flat race and Will Biddick took things up in the straight before just finding one too strong late on. The ground was perhaps just on the sharp side so it was still a fine effort. The horse is related to numerous jumping winners, and crucially, many on soft ground. His dam won races under similar conditions to today, and is brother to a point winner. He shaped as if he'd get further than 2 miles over hurdles so the 2m4f trip today in deep ground should really suit. One big issue is how he settles, however. On his hurdling debut at Aintree, he ran very fresh, and pulled Joe Tizzard's arms out for just about the first mile of the contest. He also jumped very novicey at virtually every flight - wandering around and making errors. Therefore, the fact he came into the race rounding the home turn, was promising. It was a good novice race with Barbatos beating Distime at the head of affairs. They are now rated 141 and 126 respectively. Theatre Guide was also reported to be lame behind, and having coughed after the race. Considering not much went right for him, it wasn't a bad effort. However, he still needs to settle and jump better here. However, if he does so, he'll prove a cut above in my opinion, because he appears to have a serious motor. He has been off the track for a while, since, but has been working well by all accounts and can go on to better things. The favourite won a good ground bumper but hasn't run over this trip yet over hurdles. Being out of a sprinter, and he steps up a few furlongs on deep ground also, makes him opposable to me. I think my selection has that touch of class and will hopefully be able to take this in his stride.

Obviously similar comments apply. This race has a couple of dangers, but on the whole is weaker than his Aintree debut. 2 miles will be short enough in time, and he's been entered in several 2m4f races but the weather has disrupted his progress so I think connections will be happy just to see him on the track. Very keen last time so this is likely to suit, and hopefully he can put his inexperience of last time behind him. Had a little while off the track since being sore so has to prove his fitness, but needs to win this to justify his entry in the Neptune.