Jumps racing - Friday 17th Feb

[bowles10]

You cant believe we were called off only 6 days ago for snow covering the course and now the meeting is on, all credit to the authorities for the rearrangement, i think its only cos its the pre cheltenham card that they always enure this one is rearranged Personally i dodnt think Henderson will be that bothered if the 2 hot pots tomorrow dont both win as going to the festival with a lTO 2nd isnt a bad thing either. Both Sprinter sacre and LOng run should win but i wont be on either at the prices. I will however be on Nicholls horses tomorrow as he must be biting at the bit to get them on the racecourse. Watch out for Zarkandar though as Nicholls has said Cheltenham will be his day, h is not quite 100% fit yet so i may look t henderson's Darlan in that race who looks fair value at 8/1 now

[bowles10]

Re: Jumps racing - Friday 17th Feb 12.10 Hold Fast and 12.40 Tidal Bay both represent Nicholls against the 2 hot favourites. Were getting 4/1 and 10/1 on these 2, and they may just prove value Nicholls also has What a friend in the 12.40 who wont be outclassed wither in this race. 1.15 im off to do the trends shortly fr the race to see what comes up 2.25 Diereadh re is on my cheltenham list this year and i expect a bod showing tomorrow also. Got a 6lbs penalty and Derham keeps the ride otherwise walsh would have been riding off a 13lb higher mark than the last win which would have been difficult to ovecome. 2.55 Cedre Bleu ran well here lTO beating Bellvano who scored yesterday at Kelso. Looks the best of Nicholls 3 in this field to record another Course victory Looking at doubles with Hold fast, diereadh re, tidal bay and cedre bleu plus whatever else i find in the Betfair hurdle

[Elchubb]

With regards to Zarkandar, how many times have we heard these noises come from Nichols, only for the horse to hose up! You would think that if the breathing op has worked and the horse has strengthened from last year like the reports say, 151 should easily be a winable mark especially if he's to go on to challenge for a champion hurdle!

[bowles10]

Re: Jumps racing - Friday 17th Feb >Betfair hurdle @ Newbury 1.15 Friday I have analysed the stats: Favs 2/13 5-7yo 12/13 Weight between 10st 9lb & 11st 7lb 7/13 Leops or Chelt LTO 7/13 Jan LTO 8/13 Nov or Jan LTO 11/13 SP 16/1 or under 12/13 Won no further than 19f 12/13 Grade win 1/13 Course win 2/13 Debut on course 9/13 (last years winner did have a flat win but no jumps runs) 2+ career hurdle wins 13/13 LTO 1st or 2nd 9/13 LTO 1st 6/13 Wins / runs 25% + 11/13 Just looking at stats alone, these seem to be key: 5-7yo won no further than 19f 2+ career hurdle wins SP 16/1 or under NO grade win this removes Get me out of here, Alarazi, Brampour, Zarkander, Final approach, Soldatino, Via gallei, Sailors warn, Sire de grugy, Desert cry, Ciceron, Rigidity, Ericht, Abergavenny, double ross that removes 15 from the 20 declared to date leaving a smaller field to deal with of just 5. Course winners dont appear to do well either with only 2 in last 13 winners having won here previously albeit Get me out of here won with this stat in 2010, this could be misleading as the % may be quite low. THird intention/ empire levant are the only course winners i have left in the 5. ok time for some more analysis, 2011 Recession proof 3 wins, 2 flat tracks Southwell and Lingfield 2010 Get me out of here 3 wins, 2 flat tracks Ffos las and Newbury 2009 no race 2008 wingman 2 wins, 1 flat track sand 2007 heathcote 3 wins, 1 flat track ling 2005 Essex 3 wins, 1 flat track leops 2004 Geos 5 wins 3 flat tracks 2003 Spirit Leader 2 wins, 1 flat track sand 2002 Copeland 3 wins 2 flat tracks sand 2001 Landing Light 1 win 1 flat track winc 2000 Geos 1 win 1 flat track leics 1999 Decoupage 3 wins, 1 flat track Ayr 1998 Sharpical 2 wins, 1 flat track, Folks so in last 12 runnings, all 12 had a previous win on a flat track, and the winners had between 1 & 5 NH wins, although 11/12 had 1-3 wins. from the horses i had left from the previous omissions i made, Darlan - 3 wins, 1 flat track Third intention - 2 wins, 1 flat track Empire levant - 2 wins, 2 flat track Raya star - 3 wins, 2 flat tracks Olofi - 2 wins, 1 flat track Wins to runs of 25%+ also has to be taken into consideration, with this in mind, we are left with: Darlan 100% 3-3 Third intention 25% 2-8 Empire levant 33% 2-6 Raya star 40% 3-8 Raya star ran in December lTO which isnt favoured. Leaving the 3, if we remove the 2 course winners its leaves DARLAN from Henderson stable who has always targeted this race winnig it 4 times in last 13 years. His recent form is 5 winners from 6 rides in last 2 days which also tempts me towards this horse. Bet DARLAN win 9/1 Stan James

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Jumps racing - Friday 17th Feb With the Champ up top of Darlan, both horse & Jockey will give Zarkander a race in the 1:15 Race 3' on the card at Newbury. The 5yr old has to improve, but he's unbeaten and has shown he can take on a tussle if it comes head to head near the finish. He rates a nice e/w bet in my Friday. Newbury 1:15 Darlan e/w punt.

[benreado]

Re: Jumps racing - Friday 17th Feb bowles10, I don't post here often but I read these forums daily and really respect your opinion and tipping, however I don't understand how being a course winner can be viewed as a negative? It doesn't make any logical sense. From the 13 runners in your trends sample, only 4 of the runners had previously at Newbury. 2 of those were course and distance winners and the other 2 both finished second over the course and distance in competitive handicaps. Surely that's a positive if anything?

[bowles10]

Re: Jumps racing - Friday 17th Feb

bowles10' date=' I don't post here often but I read these forums daily and really respect your opinion and tipping, however I don't understand how being a course winner can be viewed as a negative? It doesn't make any logical sense. From the 13 runners in your trends sample, only 4 of the runners had previously at Newbury. 2 of those were course and distance winners and the other 2 both finished second over the course and distance in competitive handicaps. Surely that's a positive if anything?[/quote'] Thanks Benreado, yes its a difficult one but the stats are showing only 2 winners in 13 years were Cource winners, this may be misleading as the sample number could be very low whcih could make it a good stat. In the end i had 4 horses left to choose from and 2 were Course winners, there was no negative on Darlan and that will do for me. I think the winner will come from these final 5 i mentioned above and i wouldnt be surprised if we have 3 in the frame tomorrow from these 5. The obvious danger is Zarkander and its only left out on the fact it is a grade winner, another stat that can be read differently as well

[Aidymac]

Re: Jumps racing - Friday 17th Feb

With regards to Zarkandar, how many times have we heard these noises come from Nichols, only for the horse to hose up! You would think that if the breathing op has worked and the horse has strengthened from last year like the reports say, 151 should easily be a winable mark especially if he's to go on to challenge for a champion hurdle!

I agree. If Zarkander does not win tomorrow, he can forget about winning the champion hurdle. Nicholl's will be extremely eager to win this race tomorrow, as he too wants to know if the horse is good enough to win the CH. In a race like this 3/1 is a bad price, i think Olofi is more interesting at 9/1..

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jumps racing - Friday 17th Feb Gone a bit mad here it seems. No lazy selections, though, and it's nice to have some good racing back! 12.40 Newbury - 1.5pts e/w Burton Port @ 15/2 (VC) - 1/4 odds (And 1pt e/w Cheltenham Gold Cup @ 33/1 Hills) Thought and thought about whether to play this race, and if so, how to play it. I've decided to have a rare each-way bet here because obviously Long Run will be tough to beat, but I just reckon he might have the beating of the others, and you can never be 100% sure in horse racing with the favourite giving weight away to some nice types. This horse beat Long Run in the RSA a couple of years ago, but obviously hasn't had the exposure to the racecourse since then in relation to that one. It's arguable that Burton Port would have an RSA and a Hennessy to his name but for better rounds of jumping - quite sloppy throughout at Cheltenham, and a terrible error at the cross-fence at Newbury. This is an area of his game which he needs to improve, although he certainly can jump when he wants to. He's not the biggest horse in the world which doesn't help him in this regard, but he has so much heart, and this is what makes him a personal favourite of mine. He finds plenty for pressure and stays a trip really strongly, which is why he's entered in both the Gold Cup and the Grand National. I feel the Gold Cup is the way to go so long as he shows retained ability here today. Just get the feeling his size/weight/jumping will make him up against it at Aintree. He certainly has a serious amount of quality though, and looks capable of applying his trade at the very top-class over the next few years. His RSA run and game 2nd in the Hennessy both read very well, and has been reportedly working well at home. He's likely to come on plenty for this, but at least has a sound record fresh. He has the opportunity to jump sounder in the less crowded field here, and competes with two enigmatic horses in the market behind the 1/2 shot. I don't particularly like either of those horses, and resolution certainly is no issue with my selection. This probably won't be a sufficient test ideally for him, but he's bound to be keeping on well at the finish if fit, and returning in similar form, and can go well if putting in a relatively safe round of jumping. Likely to be shorter than 33s for next month's highlight if going well here, and is a very interesting outsider for that showdown from an each-way perspective. 1.15 Newbury - 4pts win Zarkandar @ 3/1 (Hills) Not exactly great value in what is an intriguing handicap, but I'm not put off by Paul Nicholls' comments, and think this one is still fairly-treated in a handicap and will take the world of beating, even after a long absence. His champion hurdle credentials are put to the test here but you can't knock any of his hurdling form so far - winning on all 3 occasions - and the horses he has had behind him have been top notch on the whole. He shrugged off a break to beat the seriously talented Molotof on his hurdling debut (won all 3 since, rated 147), before winning the triumph hurdle at Cheltenham quite readily. The now 155-rated Unaccompanied and 166-rated Grandouet in behind haven't done the form too much harm since! Was possibly fortunate that the latter was brought down at Aintree when making it 3-3 over the sticks, but he was a long way clear with another nice type in Kumbeshwar, who has done well over fences this season. It's always difficult following up good runs at Cheltenham when going to Aintree, so you can't really knock the form. He's surely better than a 151-rated horse and the presence of stablemate Brampour ensures he doesn't have to lumber around too much weight. He's got a load going for him and the break, plus the fact his attention will be on the Cheltenham festival, make him 1pt off a max bet. 2.10 Sandown - 2pts win Upham Atom @ 25/1 (Hills) Admittedly this horse isn't the easiest to get right (2-22), but he's simply overpriced here. You can more or less forget his run last time out (which wasn't too bad all things considered), and this race looks like it will be run to suit. He has plenty of stamina which will see him seen to good effect around here with a likely decent pace - plenty of horses like to go forward in the field - and is likely to be finishing when some are stopping. This track often sees horses come from off the pace, even though the concern for this one is his jumping. It is likely to come under strain down the back straight here, and he isn't the most fluent in the world. However, he has a serious habit of jumping right, which will be far less of a concern here than it was at Newbury! The return to a right-handed track will help him a heck of a lot, and I think can outrun his price. He's also a keen runner, as seen recently, including two starts ago. The race wasn't run to suit but he still stayed on well at Towcester to be a close 4th - the runner-up has won well since. Prior to that, he was keeping on when coming to grief at Wincanton. He can hopefully settle better today and several of these have their own questions to answer - such as their handicap mark, jumping, and wellbeing. Running at Newbury was a bit of a nightmare for him last time. Often jumped badly right handed, meaning he kept having to be angled back in, and it took its toll in the end. He still made up ground to be not far off the leaders turning in, but another awkward leap soon had him on the back foot. Would have gone much closer on a right-handed track which is why I feel he can go well today. He still managed to finish 8th of 16 in a nice race and I'm hoping he doesn't make too many errors here, as he should be staying on at the death. 2.25 Newbury - 2pts win Knock A Hand @ 6/1 (VC) Another interesting race and I'm keen on Richard Lee's unbeaten hurdler here off a nice weight and quite possibly a decent mark if relishing the step up in trip. It certainly looks like he may on each of his three successes so far, when staying on determinedly late on to put daylight between him and the runner-up, and being a point winner, as well as being related to several winning jumper, gives him serious hopes of staying this trip well. A beat a 134-rated horse on his hurdling debut by 2 1/2l, which was a good effort to say that the runner-up had prior hurdling experience, and he followed this up with a similar success over the same c&d at Chepstow. Doesn't look like the type to do anything stylishly, but that helps his mark, and it was a similar story when staying on gamely to score by 3l (joined at last) at Haydock. Was giving 7lbs to a subsequent ready winner (now rated 132), so the mark of 134 that this one goes to war with today looks pretty fair. The ground isn't the heavy surface he's been encountering today, but he ran well in 2nd in a bumper on good ground, and the fact he stays so well over 2m4f at testing tracks on heavy ground also adds to the evidence that 3 miles should be no concern. Won't get an easy lead up front, but he looks like he'll be tough to pass when he does get to the front, and a big run looks on the cards. 2.55 Newbury - 3pts win For Non Stop @ 100/30 (Ladbrokes) Nick Williams boasts an impressive record of 8-31 with horses at Newbury, and I think he has a huge chance of improving that record with For Non Stop here. Rather shamefully, this horse has only won once under rules, but that's a record which looks sure to be improved upon, and he has been a little unfortunate not to get his head in front over fences this season. He was smart over hurdles, with form including a 6l defeat by Grands Crus, but could never really land a big pot, despite running well in a number of races including the Coral Cup. He burst a blood vessel at Aintree last year before looking a likely winner when coming down at 2 out on his chasing debut at Cheltenham in October. Was outpaced behind Overturn at Ascot when returned to hurdles (was rated 24lbs inferior) before going down narrowly to the very talented Al Ferof back over the bigger obstacles. That trip of 2 miles is a little on the short side for him, so it was a serious effort, for all the leader idled a tad in front. His jumping let him down last time when again finishing to good effect behind Cue Card, but again, it was a respectable try, and this should prove a bit easier. The ground being better looks sure to suit him here, and he had Walkon in behind on his last run. That horse is maybe best caught fresh, so he has a good chance of holding that form here. The rest have a bit to find at the weights, and I feel this represents a top opportunity for my selection to get off the mark over fences with Noel Fehily (4-12 for yard) on board.

[Elchubb]

Re: Jumps racing - Friday 17th Feb Anyone else watch Nicholls video on youtube about his runners today?

I know Nicholls is the king of giving out as much info as poss without telling the punter anything but it his reaction to Empire Levant that interested me, he sounds flat on most of his runners but really seems to pick up when talking about this horse! Is a C & D winner having won here by 29 lengths and then only going down to Rock on ruby 2 days later, had Raya Star back in third that day who went on to win next time out! Has gone up in the weights and no Derham claiming today but with only 6 runs over hurdles could be more improvement to come! Maybe worth a small e/w bet @ 16's and bet 365 paying 5 places!

[The Saint]

Re: Jumps racing - Friday 17th Feb 115 Newbury Backed Olofi 2 runs ago in the Greatwood at big odds – 20/1 from memory and while I wouldn’t have called him unlucky exactly, he did not enjoy as smooth a run as the winner on that occasion – was clearly fancied as a SP of 8s would show. Was hard on the bridle going around the home turn last time out and was definitely going best in my opinion when coming down having traded at a low of 2.0. I’m not completely convinced of this one in a finish and am strongly considering laying back my stake at around 4.0 or 3/1. Zarkander could of course win easily but with a 300+ day absence to overcome you have to look elsewhere. Very wary of Ciceron and if it was the distance that did for this strong traveller last time as opposed to the extra weight he is a massive danger in my opinion. Again – definite possibilities from a back to lay in-running perspective. Good Luck All – finding it all very tough going this month!!

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Jumps racing - Friday 17th Feb [TABLE=width: 100%]

[TR] [TD]Sport[/TD] [TD] Horse Racing [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Event[/TD] [TD] Sandown 4:25 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Selection[/TD] [TD] Sunglasses [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Strength[/TD] [TD] 1/10 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Date[/TD] [TD] 17/02/2012 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bookmaker/Price[/TD] [TD] Bet365 @ 11.00 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reasoning[/TD] [TD] Placed two career starts over hurdles and offered at a big price coming from the Henderson yard. He is owned by Bradley Partnership who also owns Jole Joker who Henderson trains and having done well with winning 3 of 10 over hurdles so far. Jole Joker took longer to show as much as the selection and can go well today. The owner have no other horse with Henderson so they really only send the ones they think highly of and the selection is very lightly raced with just three runs with the debut run good for a place in a bumper. Henderson is 4 from 10 with hurdlers at the track. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Falbrav]

Re: Jumps racing - Friday 17th Feb KUILSRIVER 2.35 Fakenham. 1 point win. Has the ability to win this, and win this well. Should be able to run the race at his own pace and that should be good enough to see him go close. Has been expected to do better, so open to improvement also. 10/3 William Hill BOG

[Aidymac]

Re: Jumps racing - Friday 17th Feb Good stuff today Rupert.

[bowles10]

Re: Jumps racing - Friday 17th Feb cracking stuff rupert, i was hoping for a day like that today !!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jumps racing - Friday 17th Feb Cheers pal. For Non Stop would complete it. Shame I had a rush of blood to the head and put Upham Atom up as my BBOTD! Saw the pound signs :lol In hindsight should have stuck with Knock A Hand, as I initially planned, but not to worry. Will give you and the others a chance :p

[Aidymac]

Re: Jumps racing - Friday 17th Feb Ha!!! :lol

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jumps racing - Friday 17th Feb That'll do son.

[BKI Punter]

Re: Jumps racing - Friday 17th Feb Awesome stuff boy. :D Just what I wanted to see, backed FNS for the Jewson a while back. :)

[punterpete]

Re: Jumps racing - Friday 17th Feb Superb Tipping Rupert....well done!!