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Sophocles MultiSystem Thread


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Punters Lounge has got to be the best forum on the net. Fantastic people here posting their thoughts, systems and picks. It has really got me excited and has inspired me to work on a variety of systems. Since I've started work on my various systems, I keep coming up with more ideas. Rather than have a zillion different threads for each system, I'm going to just start using this thread for all my systems. So far I've posted on my PR System, Stargate System, and in the Home Favorites System (which I use the same idea as the thread starter but with a few more filters). I'll be adding and subtracting systems as time goes by. Hopefully we can all make some $$$ :hope:hope:hope SUMMARIES OF THE SYSTEMS: Currently Active Systems: Stargate System (summary from initial thread): I have worked on developing a football betting system on and off. Initially I worked on Overs/Unders and did have some success but I abandoned the idea because I wasn’t too happy with the odds offered compared to the probability of the over/under being achieved. So over the past 2 weeks I restarted by research looking to find patterns in performance and to use those probabilities to bet accordingly. My system looked at the following leagues: Germany, England, Italy, Spain, France, Holland and Turkey. I intend to add a few more but not much more than that. The reason is that my system needs 2 things: 1) Competition Rankings, 2) Historical Fixtures, results, and odds. So I look at the success a team had over the last 5 years. The system analyses the winning, drawing and losing percentages both away and at home. Based on the current performance of the team, my system estimates the probability of a win. Then the system compares the probability with the odds. If the odds are favourable then the bet is taken. I believe this system will provide better value bets compared to an under/over system because the probabilities over time fluctuate and are not as straight forward as in an under/over system. The system looked at results over the last 5 yrs and according to back tests the strike rate has been 60% with a 24% yield over 1200 results. The problem with the back test was that it wasn’t dynamic. I took the year-end results and worked backwards. Hence the actual performance will not be as great. Therefore, instead of beginning the system from day 1, I will start the system today. The teams have played some games and so the system can work. The idea is to run the system from Dec 1st to the end of the season.

http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/7025-Obvious-but-possibly-profitable-system-40-78-units). Singles, Doubles and Trebles. Initially 5 real bets were all profitable. These were already stated in other thread). Overs System: Using statistics based on scoring to find games that will end with 2.5+ goals. Backtesting looked very promising, as did initial bets placed. Home HighOdds: This system is based on the same philosophy as the Away system, however when applied to home the results were better. In addition, the system is improved as the filter provided is more flexible than in the Away system. PR System Version 2: After 54 bets my initial PR system was not profitable with a yield of -4% based on single bets with equal amount. Looking back at the bets I noticed that if I only selected the bets with odds of 1.90 and greater than the system would yield 25%. I went to my original historical model and it agreed. Therefore, I launched Version 2 that is basically Version 1 with the added filter of a minimum odds of 1.90. Viva Espania: Based on odds that have produced profitable yields in the last 5 season, and PR System Stats. Discountinued: PR System Version 1: (summary from initial thread): The purpose of this system is to hopefully produce more bets vs Stargate. I expect it to be just as profitable, if not more. I will be disappointed in the strike rate is below 60% and yield is less than 20% because my backtest pointed to even better stats. The system is based on Steele's Profitable Football Betting Point Rating system. I calculate the rating as per Steele and choose the best matches. Away System: Using a combination of the PR System stats with high odds to overcome low strike rate and return high profitability. However unlike the PR System which had some discretion, this system is mechanical. (Despite some initial success, the system was discontinued as Home HighOdds System was introduced which uses the same filter but has more flexibility and success). RESULTS (2011-2012): [TABLE=width: 327] [TR] [TD]Systems Summary[/TD] [TD]Bets[/TD] [TD]Strike[/TD] [TD]Yield[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Stargate[/TD] [TD]30[/TD] [TD]57%[/TD] [TD]15%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]PR System V2[/TD] [TD]46[/TD] [TD]50%[/TD] [TD]10%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Home Favourites[/TD] [TD]64[/TD] [TD]72%[/TD] [TD]9%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Overs System[/TD] [TD]80[/TD] [TD]60%[/TD] [TD]8%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Home HighOdds[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]50%[/TD] [TD]97%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Viva Espania[/TD] [TD]18[/TD] [TD]44%[/TD] [TD]25%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Discontinued:[/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Away System[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]29%[/TD] [TD]19%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]PR System V1[/TD] [TD]54[/TD] [TD]48%[/TD] [TD]-4%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

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Re: Sophocles MultiSystem Thread MULTISYSTEM BETS: Away System (New): [TABLE=width: 449]

[TR] [TD]2/1/2012 [/TD] [TD]Sunderland - Norwich [/TD] [TD]@ [/TD] [TD]4.500 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2/1/2012 [/TD] [TD]Aston Villa - Queens Park Rangers [/TD] [TD]@ [/TD] [TD]4.500 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2/1/2012 [/TD] [TD]Fulham v West Bromwich [/TD] [TD]@ [/TD] [TD]4.500 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Overs (New): [TABLE=width: 449] [TR] [TD]2/1/2012 [/TD] [TD]Fulham v West Bromwich [/TD] [TD]OVER [/TD] [TD]1.850 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2/1/2012 [/TD] [TD]Blackburn v Newcastle [/TD] [TD]OVER [/TD] [TD]1.727 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Home Favourites (already stated in other thread, continuing here): [TABLE=width: 449] [TR] [TD]2/1/2012 [/TD] [TD]Udinese - Lecce [/TD] [TD]Home [/TD] [TD]1.440 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] PR System (already stated in other thread, continuing here): [TABLE=width: 421] [TR] [TD]2/1/2012 [/TD] [TD]Trabzonspor - Bursaspor [/TD] [TD]Home [/TD] [TD]1.700 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2/1/2012 [/TD] [TD]Istanbul Buyuksehir - Karabukspor [/TD] [TD]Home [/TD] [TD]1.750 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2/1/2012 [/TD] [TD]Genclerbirligi - Gaziantepspor [/TD] [TD]Home [/TD] [TD]2.050 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2/2/2012 [/TD] [TD]Sivasspor - Kayserispor [/TD] [TD]Home [/TD] [TD]1.900 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Stargate System (already stated in other thread, continuing here): [TABLE=width: 475] [TR] [TD]2/1/2012 [/TD] [TD]Trabzonspor - Bursaspor [/TD] [TD]Home [/TD] [TD]1.700 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2/1/2012 [/TD] [TD]Genclerbirligi - Gaziantepspor [/TD] [TD]Home [/TD] [TD]2.050 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2/2/2012 [/TD] [TD]Sivasspor - Kayserispor [/TD] [TD]Home [/TD] [TD]1.900 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
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