Friday 13th April - Race 4 - John Smith's Topham Chase

[mowgli77]

:ok

[bowles10]

Re: Friday 13th April - Race 4 - John Smith's Topham Chase one of my fav races of the meeting, a tricky handicap to get stuck into 3.40 Topham Chase 10/12 - 8yo-10yo (other 2 were 5 & 7) 10/12 - Under 11st 9/14 - didnt run at Cheltenham 2/14 - Favs 11/12 - ran LTO Mar/Apr 0/12 - 6yo or 11yo 8/9 - 10st 6lb or less 0/12 - Topweights 12/12 - OR 123-141 2/12 - irish trained (from 58 runners) 7/8 - had ran over the national fences before (4 finished in 1st 4) Using the stat LTO in the last month & OR rated 123-141 removes Tartak, Aptapproach, G Quercus, Chnace du roy, Fistral beach, Little Josh,Herecomesthetruth, Matuhi, Minella theatre, Massini sunset – 10 horses in total Lets stick with recent years and weight 10st 6lb or less leaving a shortlistof: Frankie Figg LTO Feb CD winner 6^th last year off 3lb higher

GonebeyondrecallLTO 212 days! 4^th last year off 4lb higher

Arklow gerLTO Jan No course form

Paradis dethaix LTO Mar No course form

AimigayleLTO Mar Course run but not national course

Fabalu LTOApr course run NH flat

Rio GaelLTO Mar 2 course runs but not national course

Douglasjulian LTO Mar No course run

Bai ZhuLTO Mar No course run

Montoyasson LTO Mar No course run

Wake BoardLTO Mar No course run

I will stick with those having course form Final selections Frankie Figg (same mark as best win here over CD) 10pts win @ 10/1 Bet365

Aimigayle (still2lb higher than best win) 5pts ew @ 16/1 Bet365

Rio Gael(3lb higher than best win) 5pts ew @ 40/1 Boylesports