Thursday 12th April - Race 4 - John Smith's Fox Hunters Chase

[mowgli77]

:ok

[Darran]

Re: Thursday 12th April - Race 4 - John Smith's Fox Hunters Chase Blackstaff ran a bizarre race on seasonal debut at Sandown and ended up finishing a 14L second to Gwanako. Made plenty of mistakes when outclassed at Cheltenham and that would be a concern here, as would the fact that his best form has come on better ground. Bow School hacked up in a Kelso handicap off a mark of 100 and then was a decent second last time off a mark of 117. That still leaves him with plenty to find here, with jumping an issue, and in my view he is better over shorter. Boxer Georg is impossible to rule out fully as he ran his best ever race to finish a close second to Baby Run in this last year. He was a well beaten 10th at Cheltenham last time, but I suspect this has been the target again and I expect a much better showing. Cloudy Lane has run in the Grand National three times (including when favourite in 2008) where he completed twice and unseated at the chair on the other occasion. Ran a great comeback race at Newbury and then beat a solid yardstick easily at Ayr. I was a bit disappointed with his run at Cheltenham where he could only finish 6th and never looked like playing a part in the finish. The Cheltenham form is working out well and experience of the fences is a plus, but I find it hard to fancy him after what to me was a lacklustre effort. Eleazar is another horse I fancied to run well at Cheltenham, but he was beaten when losing his jockey. Oddly for him he was up with the pace, which was a surprise and probably didn’t suit. Soft ground is a concern and I don’t think this is the race for him. I’d be more interested if he were to go back to Stratford where he ran so well last year. Emergancy Cover won a Ladies Open last time but likely to be outclassed here. Fresh Air And Fun made a winning seasonal reappearance when scoring easily at Ludlow last time. That is not strong form though and he looked fairly easy to beat in Hunter Chases and Points last season. Also in one run over the National fences he jumped poorly. Gwanako made a very solid reappearance when finishing second to Description at Larkhill and then has hacked up in a couple of Sandown Hunter Chases since. I Have Dreamed did plenty for the form when he won at Ascot recently and he looks to have a leading chance. He won the Topham over course and distance in 2008, although he unseated rider in that year’s Grand Sefton (may have slipped as he landed in the ditch at the Chair), and he fell at Valentine’s in the ’09 Topham. Those two non-completions have to add caution, but otherwise he looks to have an excellent chance. Harps Counsel was second in a maiden Hunter Chase at Downpatrick last month and looks outclassed. Herons Well failed to get round in this race last year, although a horse fell in front of him. He was well behind Gwanako at Sandown in February and was well beaten at Cheltenham. Hard to want to back him after those two runs, but does have the form to run better than his odds suggest. Island Life started off the season running in three races over three miles and looked a non-stayer each time. His superb trainer Steve Flook then dropped him in trip and he landed two Hunter Chases at Warwick and Hereford in very easy style. The form is nothing special but he could hardly have been more impressive, especially at Hereford. He has form on soft ground in Ireland so that shouldn’t be a concern and as long as he takes to the track (I see no reason why he won’t) he should run a good race. Keenan’s Future considering he has finished second in a Becher Chase I would imagine this has been the target. Ran a fair race for at Cheltenham last month until the lack of a recent run told and he ended up well beaten in the end. He always used to run in a tongue tie but is without it here, as he was last time, which is a slight concern. He also looks a real stayer and I can see him getting outpaced early on, if he doesn’t though a big run would not surprise. Kildonnan needs to start now to have any chance and King Of The Road is another no hoper. Launde was running a stormer in this race last year until falling three out, but this year the owner is back on and thus goes any chance he had. My Way De Solzen considering what he has achieved in his career he would be a hugely popular winner. He won the World Hurdle in 2006 and the Arkle in 2007 and was certainly the best of these in his prime. He lost his way badly and was retired in 2009, but then reappeared in Points last year and finally won a Hunter Chase at Hereford. He has had one start this season when winning at Garthorpe, the form of which is nothing special, but he did clock the fastest time on the card. I find him a very hard horse to weigh up because it is almost impossible to tell how good he still is. He hasn’t beaten much and got an easy lead when winning at Herford last year. You could easily see him taking to the fences and I would be delighted to see him win, but I really want more proof that his ability remains to back him at likely odds. Offshore Account was obviously really lucky to win at Newbury, but he has been ultra-consistent this season in some decent Points and Hunter Chases. He was third in this last year (his third time completing round the course) although was just over 12L behind Boxer Georg. To be fair he is in better form this time and would have place claims again, but I suspect he will find at least one too good. Presentandcorrect was very game when winning on his Hunter Chase debut at Exeter last time and that followed a good win in a point at Didmarton. Actually has work to do based on his runs behind Keenan’s Future at Aintree and Uttoxeter last June, all his best form has come on top of the ground and he fell on his only start over the big fences. All that means I am happy to take him on. Roulez Cool was meant to be going for the Grand National but turns up here instead. He lost unseated Sam at Cheltenham and then travelled like the winner at Newbury before making a horrendous mistake and then fading to finish fourth. He will probably come on for that run and has proven class, but you have to be concerned about his jumping round here. If he does get round though you could see him going close. Sheriff Hutton was out in his place behind Island life at Hereford and hard to see him reversing that form, let alone be good enough to win. Silver Adonis was a shock winner of this in 2010, but was well beaten in last year’s renewal. He found winning impossible last season and looked one to oppose strongly, but has actually run two solid races this season and scored at Fakenham last time. I still wouldn’t want to be backing him, but given he looks a different horse this year, maybe he might run well. Sizing America’s form this season is not good enough to be winning this, while Teddy’s Reflection was second in a Ffos Las Hunter Chase which has worked out shockingly and was well beaten behind Sizing America last time at Southwell. The Polomoche did manage to win over 3m at Huntingdon last time, but given what I saw from second place Gidam Gidam in a Point on Saturday, that form is worthless. He was well behind Cloudy Lane at Newbury over this trip the time before and I struggle to see him being good enough to win. Unowatimeen didn’t run too badly when I saw him finish third in a Ladies Open over Christmas and then won in the mud at Haydock last time. Given the conditions that day the form looks very suspect and I would only give him a chance if it turned very testing (seems unlikely). William Butler was well beaten on his Hunter Chase debut in a three-runner-race at Towcester and that form leaves him with plenty to find. Conclusion There may be 26 runners but you can rule a fair few out. If My Way De Solzen still retains anywhere near his old class he will win, but is hard to tell, so if he wins he won’t be carrying my money. Instead I will side with Gwanako who has looked in great form this season and although he has failed to get round here twice, he has still won over course and distance. I will also be backing Island Life who looks very progressive, whilst Offshore Account and Boxer Georg would be the two others to consider. Tips 1st Gwanako 2nd Island Life 3rd Offshore Account