Flat Racing 28th Jan

[chris34]

2.00 Lingfield A race that shouldnt be short of pace with several front runners in the field in the shape of April Fool, Buxfizz and Forceful Appeal all confirmed front runners. Tevez looks in the grip of the handicapper at the moment. Still 4lb higher than last turf win and is infact 9lb higher than last polytrack win. Did appear to find a little more than probably was expected last time out in a conditions race at start of year but on balance is probably best opposed. Forceful Appeal is an unknown given he is making his handicap debut today, probably didnt beat much when getting a soft lead in a maiden last time out, the 2nd has since won a similarly weak affair. Wont get a soft lead in this field and a mark of 79 looks harsh enough on the face of it. Young Dottie looks another that is in the grips of the handicapper having struggled off revised mark having won off a 3lb lower mark on penultimate start and needs to find more and also fitness a concern after another short break. Buxfizz recently won a seller over this course over 2f further, well on top at the line after getting a soft lead, had plenty of chances of this sort of mark before hand and probably better over further. April Fool was found out off a 6lb higher mark last time out, never won off a mark this high on polytrack and done most of his winning in plating company and unlikely to get a soft lead here. Il Battista has hardly beaten a rival on the polytrack and has a lot to prove now. Both All Rigt Now and Aquilifer have something to prove after disappointing efforts last time out without any real valid excuse. Titan Triumph looks the solid option in this handicap having gone close on a number of occassions recently. He is well handicapped on his best form and has been running well of late in similar races. Should be well suited to how this race pans out and aslong as the gap appears he should be bursting through at the finish with a telling turn of foot. Probably best effort last time out for a while despite form figure not suggesting that only beaten 1/2length in a race run at a muddling pace and should make amends here. 4pt win Titan Triumph 5/2 VC 3.35 Lingfield Licence To Till is a useful AW and turf performer perhaps a 1lb or 2 better on the AW and mark reflects that. He remains 6lb above last AW winning mark (2 wins have come at Dundalk) but does have fitness to prove now on the back of a break but a yard can usually ready them if they want too and in good form but will need a career best. Junoob has been well placed this winter winning 2 claimers on the AW before finishing 2nd on a CD listed event, handicapper took a harsh view of that with a 5lb rise in the handicap. Was a comfortable winner of a 4 runner condition event last time out but probably needs a career best back in handicaps but does remain unexposed on the surface. Sunset Kitty has continued her good form on this surface for new yard recently but this demands more in a much stronger race off a 3lb higher mark and stepped up 2f in trip may just find her out this time. Greyfriarschorista is 15lb higher than his last win on this surface, still well treated on the very best of his form but well below par last time out reportly bled that is the concern here today not just mentally on him but also should he bleed again and looks a risky option. Emmas Gift looks to need everything to fall right which hasnt happened recently in lesser affairs, will need to step up on those efforts from a 1lb out of the weights and in a stronger grade. Tinshu was a winner of that said Listed event where Junoob ran 2nd. Had previously won a handicap before that but found a 11lb rise in the weights too much when 3 lengths behind Emarald Witness. 5lb better off with that rival today but unlikely to prove enough here. Emarald Witness has returned to something like his best recently winning his last 2 success's and looks good value for the hatrick in this race. Has previously won off this mark and was a comfortable winner last time out having travelled strongly throughout just off a decent pace before quickening up smartly without being asked too many questions to record a comfortable success and 5lb rise in the weights for that doesnt look excessive in any way and in his current form he is the one they all have to beat. 5pt win Emarald Witness 11/4 VC

[Edberg]

Re: Flat Racing 28th Jan 2.00 Lingfield Follow Us On Twitter @Lingfieldpark Handicap Cl4 1m TITAN TRIUMPH 5/2 bog (William Hill, Bet365) I like a lot the chances of Titan Triumph in this mile and chris34 has written everything very well above so it's useless to repeat his perfect reasonings. I just add a couple of stats about this 8 yo. His record on AW tracks is very good with 7 wins, 3 seconds and 4 thirds in 31 starts. His form of late reads 424 all here at Lingfield during the last 2 months. The first was over 7f so a bit short for him and the last two over C&D off 77 and 78 (78 today) and in his last one he shaped very well in the final stages in a race totally unsuited for him as Chris has written above. His last win came over C&D in another Class 4 handicap raced the 29th of January 2011. The jockey was Jim Crowley and his mark was 80. In the winter 2008-09 Titan Triumph won 5 Handicaps over 1m from Class 5 to Class 2 the last 4 over C&D starting off a mark of 70 and winning his last off 91 that upped his mark to his personal best of 96 two years and half ago. His trainer William Knight is at the top at the moment having sent off an easy winner with the same colour of Titan Triumph few days ago and that was his last starter (Palace Moon ridden by Jim Crowley at Kempton last Sunday). The other horse trained by William Knight that raced in the last fortnight has been Princess Lexi and also the mare by Rock Of Gibraltar (Jim Crowley on board again) showed a top performance finishing 2nd with her mark upped 2lb after that good performance (here at Lingfield 8 days ago) that was Princess Lexi's best one during this Winter campaign on AW. As far as concerned Jim Crowley his stats are even better as he his the top jockey at the moment on AW with an impressive 30% winning rate strike in 2012 (13 wins with 43 rides) and Crowley has been able to collect at least a win in each of his last five meetings he took part (4 wins with his last 12 raiders). Adding these stats to chris34's perfect analysis of his opponents and his last performance with the "almost" guaranteed quick pace of the race I can see Titan Triumph improving a bit more since his last start and snatching another win over his beloved C&D.