Flat Racing 27th Jan

[chris34]

1.20 Lingfield Welsh Inlet is just 1 of a few front runners in this field that should ensure a good gallop for the hold up performers to come to fore especially around here. He didnt get home last time out over 6f and should appreciate this return to 5f but has a poor strike rate and no easy task to dominate here. Sherjawy has dropped a long way in the weights and although has shaped a little better than recent finishing positions suggest he certainly doesnt stand out as a winner waiting to happen and probably for another day especially with the yard struggling for winners at the moment. Spic N Span is another front runner who appears here on the back of a 123 day absence and will probably need the run and doesnt look particularly well treated on his polytrack form (most winning form comes around Southwell on the fibresand) Dorothys Dancing won twice around here in early 2011 in 6 runner fields has since been rather disappointing and although not beaten far last 3 starts again probably high enough in the handicap still 2lb higher than last win. Chjimes is one of the underperformers of the AW season so far, usually wins his fair share with all his 10 AW wins coming around here, has dropped 8lb below last winning mark and has been shaping a little better recently but that has been over 6f and last few starts over 5f recently have suggested age has caught up with him being rather outpaced and may need 6f these days. Cliffords Reprieve is a confident selection, he has been difficult to win with but did get off the mark in a weak maiden at Kempton over this tripped, shaped very well back in handicap around here over CD on penultimate start perhaps snatched up slightly when gathering pace but finished with some effect, the form of that race has worked out very well the 2nd winning since off same mark, similar story at Kempton early in the week getting going too late but finishing with some effect in a race where the winner made all and 2nd chased leader so did best of those held up and has sound claims in a race where most have something to prove. 5pts win Cliffords Reprieve 3/1 bet365 7.10 Wolverhampton Nezenkha is bred to be a little better than this sort of grade but on what form she has shown to date the handicapper still looks incharge at present but yard going strong so has solid place claims. Crunched is officially 3lb ahead of the handicap today having put in a decent effort in a claimer over this trip last time out, concern this is much stronger back in handicap now but good record on this surface 4 placed efforts and 1 win from 6 starts and generally consistent. Priceless Art did well in NHF races has generally struggled under flat code mainly as he is very one paced so probably always gonna be better at Southwell on the fibresand where stamina comes into play more. Not Til Monday has been in good form since fitted with headgear under both codes only 2lb higher for latest win on the flat and may still have more to offer but has previously been well held on polytrack off a lower mark before and yard yet to have a winner on the flat this year. The market will tell the story as far as Three White Socks is concern but from a form perspective you have to be skeptical, having won super easy in weak handicaps at southwell in summer not seen since and now 14lb higher on a completely different surface and having to prove fitness here in a decent race for this sort of event. Follow The Flag is a very strange one in this race and he has got a big black blob on my form study as I cant make my mind up and have hummed and harrred for ages now but he does look very overpriced at 16/1. He is not always the most consistent but has generally been holding his form recently only a length off the in form Emarald Witness last time out and well clear of the remainder of the field handicapper reacted with 4lb rise which now puts him 12lb above his last winning mark, but has won off just a mark 1lb lower before and although not getting any younger he clearly retains plenty of ability. He has never tried a trip anywhere near this far but the way he often gets going all to late suggests he is well worth a try at a staying trip and should atleast get a decent gallop to chase. Rosewood Lad is as tough and honest as they come showing both those attributes last time out to get back up and in the end win reasonably well going away at the line last time out, handicapper only raised him 2lb for that effort which looks more than fair with Morris back in the saddle again. Never runs a bad race around here with 3 wins from 5 starts here. 2pt win Rosewood Lad 11/2 lads 0.5pt e/w Follow The Flag 16/1 vc

[Edberg]

Re: Flat Racing 27th Jan 7.10 Wolverhampton Blue Square Winter Carnival iPhone App Handicap Cl4 2m119y ROSEWOOD LAD @ 11/2 bog (Ladbrokes) Rosewood Lad stands a very solid chance in this race in my opinion. This 5yo trained by Moore has a cracking record over C&D and is in very good form off a good mark and with one of the best jockeys around on AW on board. Rosewood Lad raced 5 times over C&D in the last 11 months winning 3 times and finishing close second in the other two. His last run was over C&D three weeks ago and with Luke Morris on board the horse won in very good style beating Mark Johnston's Exemplary that won next time out and a few of today's rivals behind. It's been upped just 2lb and so the mark looks still pretty good especially because the way he won lto was very interesting. He came off the pace quickening very well in the last 100 yards and in a race raced at a very slow pace surely the closers weren't helped at all. Still Rosewood Lad mowed down rivals to get on top at the finish. It is a strong stayer and as written above it would have been better served by a stronger test something that should be at least more possible today. Follow The Flag, Nezhenka, Sam Lord, Priceless Art all look off difficult marks both at their best and with their current form. Crunched had a nice finish lto behind Exemplary but that line puts him still well behind Rosewood Lad. Penangdouble O One never raced here and is back on AW after 5 months with poor efforts over hurdles of late. Three White Socks is a dark horse as he is well treated at weights with his revised mark but is back after 239 days and his two wins came on Fibresand (never raced on Polytrack). Not Til Monday is the main rival of my selection and market leader atm with Keiren Fallon on board. This Jenkins-trained horse is back on flat after 86 days but won over hurdles on New Year's DAy. This horse knows how to win as his record is pretty impressive (6 wins in 12 races in the last 12 months) but his 3 efforts on AW (even if snatching two seconds) were not that good and this mark of 72 looks big enough even if Fallon goes very well with him since he rode Not Til Monday to two wins last Spring on flat (last off a 2lb lower mark which is his highest ever winning mark). Westlin' Winds comes back on flat after 214 days and the last effort over hurdles of this son of Montjeu was pretty good. Still he never showed anything on flat (never better than 4th on AW) but with 5lb claim of Raul Da Silva and the new training it could be a surprise. C P Joe has won twice this winter, once over hurdle and once in a selling stakes at Southwell over 12f and in the other races has always been in the frame or very close. Visor helped him (confirmed today) and could make a good effort today too but this is a huge step up in grade even with his featherweight. So a lot of pros and cons for his rivals but overall less value than this juicy 11/4 for the only true C&D specialist Rosewood Lad that could score again over his beloved C&D even off a 2lb higher mark than lto.