Jumps Racing - Wednesday 25th January 2012

[Bathtime For Rupert]

2.10 Musselburgh - 3pts win Why Are You Asking @ 11/2 (PP) Very poor handicap chase and only a few of these have serious hopes on recent form. Stuff Of Dreams has run very poorly on all three starts this year for a yard not exactly banging in the winners, Paddys Unyoke is a 21-race maiden and dropped out like a stone earlier this week. Oh Right is at least unexposed over fences and this trip, but his best performance has been a 29l defeat so you couldn't be confident. Leopold hasn't won for nearly three years and jumped badly when last of four finishers last time out, and Desertmore Star has shown little to nothing under rules to date. If one of these horses wins then I'll have to accept it but I wouldn't touch any of them with stolen money and believe the race concerns the three at the head of the market. Hurricane Jack has a recent win to his name and conditions are fine, but he's never won off this high before, and the way he sulked and dropped back when making jumping errors last time was concerning. Struggles for consistency and won't find it as easy to dominate the field today as he did when winning two starts ago. That race hasn't really worked out for all he did it well and is well worth taking on at 11/4. Tears From Heaven improved to be way in front of Hurricane Jack last time here, however, the race was particularly dire and the winner didn't look like being involved when unseating since. Therefore I believe this is set up for the Rose Dobbin trained Why Are You Asking. He perhaps would be an even bigger bet had he proved himself over the trip, but I think it'll be fine, and may well suit the horse. This gelding is at least relatively consistent at a low level and his runs over fences haven't been too bad. Was beaten 7l on his chase debut and then 12l after an absence on his second start over an insufficient 2 miles. Had absolutely no chance behind a seriously well-handicapped horse stepped up to 2m7f at Wetherby, so his rider wasn't serious with him up the straight so it's difficult to tell how well he stayed. The facile 33l winner (off a mark of 75) won twice since, including a 5l success off a mark of 109 (now rated 120) so you can safely forgive my selection for not getting near that one! My selection was 3rd next time out having gone back to 2 miles and has a habit of being outpaced in his races. Shaped as if wanting further and put in a terrific effort over 2m5f from out of the handicap at Hexham on soft ground next time out. The front three were clear and he only went down by 3 1/4l. The fact he stayed that trip on soft ground at a testing track offers plenty of hope for three miles around Musselburgh on better ground - even if a bit of cut may suit him. Even though he was beaten 38 lengths last time, he met two well-treated rivals. Even if it didn't look great at the time, he jumped pretty well barring a couple of errors (including when beaten, exaggerated distance back to him) and rallied well at a point having been outpaced once more. That shouldn't happen so much over this trip today. Both the winner and runner-up have won well twice since (winner now rated 29lbs higher, and runner-up won by 5l off 12lbs higher three days ago). So it wasn't a bad effort in that company to be third and so long as he gets home today, I think he's a good bet at 11/2. His form has worked out well and even though the trip isn't bombproof for him, there's a good chance he'll see it out. Harry Haynes is one of the better conditional jockeys around so it looks a good booking for this race and Rose Dobbin's last two runners have been 2nd. Weak race but a strong chance I feel. 3.10 Musselburgh - 2pts win Baaher @ 11/1 (Hills) I think this horse is interesting back over hurdles as he really isn't a natural over fences. He did get his head in front possibly fortuitously here in November when left in front, but was keeping on as the leader showed signs of fatigue and kept on well to score by 2l. His jumping let him down on his start after that when weak in the market on ground probably a bit too soft. Was well-held but shaped as if still in form but for his blemishes over the obstacles last time on better ground. Had every chance when blundering 5 out and still made it to the lead but another error at 3 out put paid to his chances. I think the horse is actually running fairly well but just cannot win races making the mistakes he has been making. He doesn't win very often but he has his conditions to suit and I think his handicap mark over hurdles is fair with Lucy Alexander, who has a 21% strike rate at the track, taking off a handy 5lbs for her services. The horse has placed off 103 before and 118 with 10lbs taken off (albeit held) so the 105 mark with 5lbs off gives him hope here. He goes well at the track and relishes decent ground which will suit him very well indeed. He shouldn't make any errors that will knock the stuffing out of him quite like he has been over fences and looks a little overpriced at 11/1 off bottom-weight. 3.40 Musselburgh - 3pts win Alpha One @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes) Chris Grant's horses could be going better but his entrant here looks one of the most interesting contenders in the field, and I think a mark of 108 might just underestimate him given the rivals he's been tried against in his relatively short career to date. He showed little in his first three starts (two bumpers, one hurdle race) before improving to be a very good 2nd at a big price at Newcastle behind the decent Jukebox Melody (now rated 120) with a 110 horse back in third. Despite this, was still a big price next time out and again put in a decent effort despite being beaten a little further. Was held by a 120-rated horse who won next time out also, and a decent type was in second, with my selection back in third. His 2l second to a 110 horse who won over fences next time also reads well and I think a mark of 108 isn't too bad over hurdles. The fact he goes to war over fences off the same mark interests me though. He looks a better chaser and ignoring his hurdling start after a break this season (inexperienced rider, drifter in the market, seven month lay-off), has looked pretty good behind two nice types. Beat a 125 rated animal (gone well since) into 3rd when chasing home the progressive Our Mick, who is now rated 142 having hacked up in a Grade 2 recently, with Alpha One beaten 14l. Not a bad effort with a further 7 back to the third. Again, he bumped into one last time in the shape of Time Out. 12l was the margin on this occasion but again, that horse has won twice since - quite well, including off 122 last time. The third horse was well-held and he was running soundly enough prior to that effort. It makes 108 look a very fair mark to me now he goes handicapping and even though this is competitive, I think he has a huge chance.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Jumps Racing - Wednesday 25th January 2012 [TABLE=width: 100%]

[TR] [TD]Sport[/TD] [TD] Horse Racing [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Event[/TD] [TD] Hereford 4:30 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Selection[/TD] [TD] Gracey Bella [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Strength[/TD] [TD] 10/10 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Date[/TD] [TD] 25/01/2012 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bookmaker/Price[/TD] [TD] Skybet @ 2.75 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reasoning[/TD] [TD] Debutant from trainer Nicky Henderson so fitness is not an issue. She has an appeailing pedigree being half-sister to the fairly useful hurdler Night In Milan from good staying family. She is sired by Vinnie Roe and out of an Irish Point winner. Henderson has a 31% strike rate at the track the last 5 seasons; 12 winners from 39 runners with his NHF entries able to win 3 out of 8 or 38% of the races. His two NHF runners the last two weeks finished 1st and 2nd. He also has the selection entered to run at Doncaster three days from now but perhaps the training at home has been going really well to be running today. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]