Flat racing Tue 24th Jan 2012

[Edberg]

2.50 Southwell Download The Blue Square Bet App Handicap Cl2 5f SIR GEOFFREY @ 10/1 bog (Boylesports) This is the feature race of this Tuesday and it's a "sui generis" Class 2 Handicap over 5f as 7 of the 10 runners will race out of the handicap. I'll try to give a view of all the 10 runners. The one who is due to carry 11lb more than his actual mark is Dancing Freddy. The 5 yo trained by Richard Guest has won once in 26 starts on AW and it was a Class 6 Handicap over 6f here at Southwell one year ago. From that mark of 60 the horse has largely improved winning a Class 5 Handicap over 5f at Pontefract last September off 71 and snatching a very close second over the same course and distance but in a Class 4 Handicap last October off 79. This winter Dancing Freddy has been racing off marks between 75 and 72 achieving his best result in a Class 5 Handicap over 6f here at Southwell in his second last start, 1/4L behind Bandstand and that day he was running off 72. His actual mark is 73 but in this race he will run as off 84. I'd say that's almost a mission impossible especially since his best races at Southwell have been all at 6f. His best ever performance over C&D has been three weeks ago when Dancing Freddy finished 3rd off 73 2 3/4L behind the winner. No chance. Alpha Tauri is in the race 10lb off his official mark but thanks to the booking of the apprentice jockey Nora Looby this horse, who is the second of three saddled by Richard Guest in this race, will carry actually just 3lb more than his mark would give him today. This lightly raced 6 yo has collected 3 wins and 2 seconds in 11 starts on the AW but all his 3 wins and his 2 seconds came over 7f-8f (all here at Southwell) and all in Class 6 (two wins in Selling Stakes and one win in Handicap off 64). All those results were achieved during last winter campaign under the training of Frank Sheridan and since the horse has moved to Richard Guest has beaten 2 horses home in 6 starts racing in low quality and crowded sprint Handicaps during the last summer while his OR has kept dropping down to a mark of 53 on flat so his actual mark of 74 on AW could be far from his possibilities at the moment even if his best results came over this surface and a 141-day break is another big concern of course. No chance. Sir Geoffrey would be 4lb out of the handicap but thanks to the booking of Danny Brock who takes off 7lb he'll be 3lb ahead of the handicapper. This 6 yo is one of the three horses representing Scott Dixon's yard and stands a very good chance to hit the frame in this race as well as his stablemates Cadeaux Pearl and Even Stevens. Sir Geoffrey has collected 7 wins in his career, all over 5f and 4 of them came on AW tracks, one on Fibresand and that was his last win that came over C&D 13 months ago in a Class 4 Handicap off a mark of 80. In that period, under the training of David Nicholls, who has switched part of his yard to Scott Dixon before Christmas, Sir Geoffrey's mark was raised to 86 but he never missed the frame collecting 2 seconds and 4 thirds in a row in the first 3 months of the 2011. One of his third places came in this race one year ago when he ran off 86 and finished 1 3/4L behind the winner Arganil and 1/2L behind Waveband. A very good performance by Sir Geoffrey behind two high quality sprinters. Arganil won two Listed over 5f at Lingfield (8 wins in 18 starts on AW collecting £110k) and was rated up to 108 in 2010 while that day ran just off 94. Waveband (who collected £133k in 27 starts in his career so far) didn't run yet this winter but he is still rated 96 at the moment since after that second (he was the 6/4 favourite of this race one year ago running off 90 while Arganil was the second in the market at 3/1) this son of Exceed And Excel trained by David Barron won his next start and that was a Listed over 6f at Lingfield. Two quality horse we can't find with ease in today's race and Sir Geoffrey with his adjusted mark will race off 6lb lower than one year ago. His 2011 summer campaign has been short and poor and after having started this 2011-12 All Weaather winter campaign in November off a mark of 85 Sir Geoffrey's Official Rating has dropped to 79 and off that mark the horse achieved a very solid third last time out in a Class 4 Handicap over 5f at Kempton 13 days ago finishing 1/2L behind Cadeaux Pearl and a neck behind West Coast Dream who was carrying 4lb more that day and will have to carry 4lb more today thanks to the 7lb claim of Danny Brock since Brock will be the jockey of Sir Geoffrey today instead of the usual booking of Ian Mongan. Danny Brock has won with his last raider six days ago at Lingfield (an easy success on Waterloo Duck in a 6f Handicap) and has collected already 5 wins in only 34 starts during this campaign (3 of them in sprint Handicaps here at Southwell). So I rate at least very solid the chances of Sir Geoffrey in this race. Cadeaux Pearl is another card for Scott Dixon in this race. The 4 yo is in very good form at the moment but his last two wins has sent his mark from 74 to 82 within less than a month. This is another horse switched from the David Nicholls' yard just one month ago and since then he has raced twice winning both times. The first win came over C&D 4 weeks ago in a Class 5 Handicap off 74 and the last one came 13 days ago at Kempton in a Class 4 Handicap over 5f racing off 79 and beating by a neck West Coast Dream with Sir Geoffrey third another head behind the second. That day Cadeaux Pearl's jockey (Ryan Powell) gave him the chance to race with 5lb less than his mark of 79 and so he was racing with 9lb less than West Coast Dream and 5lb less than Sir Geoffrey. For today's race Scott Dixon booked again Ryan Powell but the young jockey takes only 3lb off now and so Cadeaux Pearl, with the adjusted marks, will carry 4lb more than Sir Geoffrey and 4lb less than West Coast Dream today so +9lb compared with his stablemate and +5lb with the horse trained by Roy Brotherton and that gives him a way smaller chance to complete the hattrick even if he's surely back to his best. Close To The Edge is not only one of my favorite songs ever but a good sprinter trained by Alan McCabe and carries the colours of Charles Wentworth, the same of Caspar Netschar (my favorite 2 yo last year). This son of Iffraaj has a pretty decent pedigree being half-brother to Qadar (rated 102 and able to collect 7 wins, 27 places and £107k in prize money), Ikan (2 wins and second in a Listed), Valjarv (3rd in a Listed and 4th in a Group 2 as 2 yo) and Follow The Flag (able to collect 12 wins and 32 places in his career and still running very well at the age of 8, 2nd in a Class 3 at Lingfield 10 days ago). This 4 yo has had a slower start of his career if compared to his half-brothers but after his win at Pontefract last April in a Class 5 Handicap for 3 yo over 6f (off 62) has kept on improving winning again over the same course and distance in a similar race in June (off 70 that time) and winning also in his first start of this winter campaign at Wolverhampton in a 7f Class 4 Handicap (off 76). His mark has gone up to 82 but Close To The Edge has kept on performing well even if always over 6f and on Polytrack. His second last start (6f Class 4 Handicap at Wolverhampton one month ago) has seen Close To The Edge finishing second to Woolfall Sovereign a neck behind carrying 4lb more so even if upped 2lb (82 from 80) from that race he's gonna face again Woolfall Sovereign with the same mark today since Close To The Edge is 2lb out of the handicap in this race and Woolfall Sovereign 1lb and the current mark of the George Margarson's horse is 83 vs Close To The Edge's 82. I can see this horse winning again this winter but this mark looks high enough at the moment and this race doesn't seem made for him today. Mottley Crewe is the third horse in the race trained by Richard Guest and will carry the same colours of Dancing Freddy. This 5 yo will be racing 2lb off his current official mark of 82 today but he has a good chance of hitting the frame again as he's been in super form all the winter especially with the blinkers on (confirmed again also today). Mottley Crewe has made huge steps up in the ratings since his win at Catterick 3 months ago in a Class 6 Handicap over 5f (off 62) never missing the frame and winning again here at Southwell 2 months ago in a Class 4 Handicap over 6f (off 70) and snatching two seconds in his last two starts over C&D in Class 4 and 3 Handicaps off 78 and 81. Last time out, on New Year's Day, Mottley Crewe finished second 1 1/4L behind Even Stevens (the favorite of this race) over C&D carrying 10lb less. His mark has been upped 1lb (82 today) while Even Stevens' one has been upped 5lb but the horse trained by Scott Dixon will enjoy 3lb claim thanks to the booking of Ryan Clark while Mottley Crewe will be carrying 2lb more being out of the handicap so while the difference between the two (on the official BHA figures) should be 14lb today it will be just 9lb and adding the last mutual result between these two I'd say Mottley Crewe's chances today are good but not that big at least to win this race even if he's surely the best of the three horses saddled by Richard Guest in this quality sprint. Woolfall Sovereign represents the yard of George Margarson and is the last one who will be running out of the handicap (1lb). This son of Noverre had a very late start of his career but his first race was soon a success at Wolverhampton 25 months ago over 9f. As a 4 yo Woolfall Sovereign raced only 4 times and achieved just a second in a Class 6 Handicap at Yarmouth over 7f. His comeback on the All Weather tracks happened just one year ago and Woolfall Sovereign won soon at his first start at Wolverhampton in a Class 5 Handicap over 7f off a mark of 67. After two disappointing races and a long break the horse has come back 3 months ago going close twice in two Class 5 Handicaps over 7f at Wolverhampton off 70 and 74 and has finally won again one month ago upped in class (Cl4) and down in trip (6f) even with a higher mark (off 76 that day) racing always at Wolverhampton and beating by a neck Close To The Edge who carrying 4lb more than him. Over the same track and always in Class 4 Handicaps over 6f Woolfall Sovereign has raced two more times in 2012 collecting a close 3rd behind Alben Star and a win last time out and his OR has gone up to today's 83. That mark should be too much for this 6 yo who has to face a shorter trip (never raced over 5f) and Fibresand for the first time and has also to face a difference of 4lb in weight in favor of Close To The Edge who was just a neck behind him one month ago. West Coast Dream is one of the three horses inside the handicap and will carry 8st 8lb as his official rating of 85 gives him in this handicap. West Coast Dream represents the small yard of Roy Brotherton who saddled his first winner of this 2011-12 winter campaign 5 days ago at Wolverhampton when Cape Of Storm won a Class 6 Selling Stakes at 40/1. Surely West Coast Dream is the best horse in his yard and his last effort when a neck behind Cadeaux Pearl and a head ahead of Sir Geoffrey in a 5f Class 4 Handicap raced at Kempton 13 days ago puts him well in contention in today's race. West Coast Dream gains 5lb over Cadeaux Pearl from that race but loses 4lb against Sir Geoffrey. That race was his third ever over Polytrack (ran twice at Dundalk when saddled by his former trainer Andrew Oliver) and the first on AW this winter so this 5 yo could still progress but his two career wins came over 6f and his pedigree suggests he would need a bit more than 5f moreover this will be his first ever start on Fibresand and has a bad draw (stall 8) so even if standing a decent chance on form and current marks I'd better oppose West Coast Dream today especially since he has something to find to beat again Sir Geoffrey and the favorite Even Stevens who has surely no problems of form, course, distance and draw today. In fact Even Stevens together with his stablemate Sir Geoffrey is my double selection in this race. This progressive 4 yo has made a huge impact over C&D winning his last two starts in super style. Even Stevens has achieved 7 wins in his career and all came on AW (in just 9 starts), 6 of them on Fibresand, 4 of them over C&D. The horse bred, owned and trained by the Dixon family has won all his 6 starts at Southwell within the last 13 months and from his first win off 50 he has been able to go up to a mark of 91 and win again and in super style 23 days ago over C&D beating with ease Mottley Crewe as written above. His OR is now up to 96 but with the booking of Ryan Clark he will carry just 2lb more than his last win. Ryan Clark is a pretty decent jockey who collected 43 wins in 2011 and has won twice with his last 7 raiders during the last week and as written recently Scott Dixon has been doing a very good job saddling 5 winners with his last 20 runners and shows a +£34.75 level stakes profit. With his three runners Dixon sends three in-form horses in this race and especially Sir Geoffrey and Even Stevens could give him another winner. Colonel Mak is the top weight of the race. This 5 yo is surely a high quality horse who was rated up to 100 and was still racing off 99 last Autumn. This son of Makbul is trained by David Barron and has achieved 5 wins in 30 starts on flat courses winning the Silver Cup at Ayr (Cl2 Hcap) in September 2010 (off 93). The horse has made his debut on the Polytrack of Lingfield 17 days ago in a Class 2 Handicap over 6f finishing a distant 9th of 12 8L behind the winner Oasis Dancer. His mark was 99 and it will just 1lb lower today when he'll be racing over 1f less and for the first time on Fibresand. The result of his last run was worse than his actual qualities for sure (also hampered well over 1f out) but he didn't impress me at all (never seemed able to quicken) and never had good races during the Winter so with a terrible draw (stall nr. 10) in such a hot sprint contest as today's race is adding that all his wins came over 6f I'd say Colonel Mak's chances are not of my interest today. After all this long analysis of the 10 runners my pick for this race would be Even Stevens but with his odds came off at 9/4 (I would have backed him at 3/1+) and now are even shorter at 7/4 and they are not that interesting in my opinion even if I rate his as the favourite of the race while I can't miss Sir Geoffrey at 10/1 who has a lot on his favour and surely deserve way lower odds. So Sir Geoffrey is my final choice at the current odds.

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat racing Tue 24th Jan 2012 *Lady Elsie - Kempton 5:00* Kai Mook was very impressive lto but had the run of the race that day, goes up 6 pounds and has a poor strike rate of 2/27 overall, i think 6/4 is a horrible price. Lady Elsie is having its first run for the Prodromou stable here, and although it has yet to win a race, it is very lightly raced with only 7 runs to its name and was placed in 5 of them races, it runs off a handy mark of 70 and Adam Kirby is an eye-catching jockey to get the ride, he is riding very well. On its last run for Haggas, it went down by a short-head to Zamina in a Class 4 race, this race is Class 5. Should go close. The Prodromou stable is absolutely piping hot at the moment with 4 winners and 3 places from their last 9 runners and when Adam Kirby rides for them he has won 3 of his last 4 rides and was 2nd on the other, cracking form :eek *1 Point WIN @ 7/1 Ladbrokes BOG*