Winning £1000 at the Australian Open

[captaincool]

Hi, some people may remember my former glory hunt, which netted about £500 in the first week before I got lazy and gave up. I have decided to give it a go again at the Australian Open. I think keeping track of bets here will be helpful. I have a starting balance of £600 and the target is £1600 (£1000 profit). I will be very aggressive with my bets because I believe in my own ability. Bet One: Novak Djokovic to win Australian Open - £100 @11/10 Djokovic is just too good at the moment and I can't see any other result than a win for him in Melbourne. The odds aren't as good as they were pre-tournament but I wanted to see how fit he was before I jumped in. The rest of my bets will be staked at 10% of current bank but I wanted to start with a good stake on this as it's an outright. Balance remaining: £500

[Lydo33]

Re: Winning £1000 at the Australian Open see instead of outright betting would u not have got better odds of backing him to win every game one after another? just a thought

[captaincool]

Re: Winning £1000 at the Australian Open

see instead of outright betting would u not have got better odds of backing him to win every game one after another? just a thought

Possibly. A lot would depend on who he plays en route to the final. The way I see it he'll play: Mahut/Raonic/Ferrer/Murray/Nadal That would be 1/40 x 1/10 x 1/5 x 1/4 x 2/5 = 2.36. I suppose that is a little bigger but then he could be shorter against Raonic and I'm not convinced that either Ferrer or Nadal will reach the quarters/final. I suppose it's six and half a dozen but it's just a bit easier taking the outright.

[captaincool]

Re: Winning £1000 at the Australian Open So, here are the first round of bets for tonight: Caroline Wozniacki v Monica Niculescu Over 18.5 Games - £50 @Evens Swithered for a long time between this and the Over 18.5 line but I think there's marginally more chance of a 7-5, 6-1 than a 6-3, 6-3. Wozniacki's not been playing well recently and she struggled in the second set against Tatishvili, needing a tie-break in the second set. This line would have been covered in 8 of Wozniacki's last 10 matches and both of Niculescu's matches in Oz. Roger Federer v Ivo Karlovic Under 31.5 Games - £50 @11/8 I don't really rate big Ivo at the moment. He was taken apart by Youzhny in Doha and didn't really impress me against Berlocq in the last round. His return game is poorer than ever and although he'll serve aces I think Federer will get chances. He only needs to take one per set to cover this line. The time off will have given the Swiss time to rest his back and I think it'll be another comfortable win to make everyone believe that he can win the tournament. Alejandro Falla v Philipp Kohlschreiber Over 37.5 Games - £50 @8/11 I think that Falla could spring a surprise tonight but Kohlschreiber has a 3-0 head-to-head record and that's a worry. I do think that whoever wins tonight doesn't do so easily. Falla took four sets to beat Fognini and Kohli needed five to get past Monaco. I see at least 4 but that's priced at 4/7 and the overs is 8/11. Tomas Berdych (-6.5 Games) v Kevin Anderson - £50 @11/10 I watched Anderson lose 6-3, 6-3 to Mannarino last week and he was utter garbage. I know he's come through his opening two matches in Oz but I'm not impressed. Berdych, on the other hand, looks fit and hungry. He destroyed Rochus and also covered this line against Ramos, despite dropping a set. I think that even if it takes four he'll cover the handicap tonight Feliciano Lopez to beat John Isner - £50 @11/10 Going against the grain with this pick. Isner is expected to win tonight after coming through against Nalbandian but the American isn't the fittest and he could easily struggle tonight. A lot of people have been critical of Lopez's perfromances in Melbourne but I think he's done what he had to, breaking at opportune moments. I'm willing to play him as an underdog tonight. Stanislas Wawrinka v Nicolas Almagro Over 36.5 Games - £50 @10/11 Why is this line so low? I know Wawrinka will win but Almagro will fight. The Spaniard took four sets to beat Kubot and five against Dimitrov so I think he can muster up one against Wawrinka, who needed four to beat Baghdatis. Over 3.5 sets is 4/6 and I can't the game line not being covered if the match goes to four. They played out a five setter in the Davis Cup in 2010. Romina Oprandi to beat Julia Goerges - £50 @11/8 Oprandi beat Schiavone in the last round and comfortably beat Yakimova in the first round. She lost to Goerges in 2010 but the German has dipped since then. She retired against Jankovic in Sydney last week and I don't think she's quite right here. She struggled with Hercog in round one and then got through round two when Daniilidou retired. I can see an upset here and I'll give the win odds a try. Christina McHale (+4.5 Games) v Jelena Jankovic - £50 @Evens I hate Jankovic. She's a horrible player and you can't trust her at all. She plays okay but makes too many errors and can lose to anyone. Beating two qualifiers in the opening rounds is nothing much to shout about and she will be really tested by McHale. The American is improving every time she plays in a major tournament and goes further each one she plays. I know she lost 6-2, 6-0 to Jankovic last year but she's still only 19. I think she push the Serb all the way tonight and I wouldn't be too surprised if she actually won. Total Outlay - £400 + £100 ante-post. Good luck to everyone betting tonight :ok

[captaincool]

Re: Winning £1000 at the Australian Open Have snuck in one final bet: Hutchins/Fleming + Paes/Stepanek double - £50 @11/10 I class the British pair as being better and so does the ATP, who make them 15th seeds here. They take on Russian pair Bogomolov and Kunitsyn who have both been knocked out of the singles. I can't see them being as good or as motivated as Hutchins and Fleming. Paes and Stepanek are unseeded but they are hot favourites to win tonight. They came through easily against Jones and Smith in the first round and I think their experience will see them come through in similar fashion against the Italians.

[captaincool]

Re: Winning £1000 at the Australian Open Confirmation of tonight's singles bets. Can someone tell me how to post this properly?

[captaincool]

Re: Winning £1000 at the Australian Open

Have snuck in one final bet: Hutchins/Fleming + Paes/Stepanek double - £50 @11/10 I class the British pair as being better and so does the ATP, who make them 15th seeds here. They take on Russian pair Bogomolov and Kunitsyn who have both been knocked out of the singles. I can't see them being as good or as motivated as Hutchins and Fleming. Paes and Stepanek are unseeded but they are hot favourites to win tonight. They came through easily against Jones and Smith in the first round and I think their experience will see them come through in similar fashion against the Italians.

Hutchins/Fleming won 6-0, 6-3 and Paes/Stepanek won 6-2, 7-6. :clap I have to say though, I don't think either will get through the next round where they are scheduled to play the Bryans and Zimonjic/Llodra. Paes/Stepanek moved very badly and I'll probably look to bet against them when they play the 3rd seeds. +£55 for this bet and a good start to the thread. :)

[sadfrog]

Re: Winning £1000 at the Australian Open Good start but I don't think your other bets went all great! :\ Anyway, keep us update mate! and GL :hope

[Wise Guy]

Re: Winning £1000 at the Australian Open Hard luck today. By my score thats a -135. I hope you can turn this around. You seemed to have better luck with the match outcomes rather than the number of games. Best of luck with this. :ok

[captaincool]

Re: Winning £1000 at the Australian Open

So, here are the first round of bets for tonight: Caroline Wozniacki v Monica Niculescu Over 18.5 Games - £50 @Evens Swithered for a long time between this and the Over 18.5 line but I think there's marginally more chance of a 7-5, 6-1 than a 6-3, 6-3. Wozniacki's not been playing well recently and she struggled in the second set against Tatishvili, needing a tie-break in the second set. This line would have been covered in 8 of Wozniacki's last 10 matches and both of Niculescu's matches in Oz. Roger Federer v Ivo Karlovic Under 31.5 Games - £50 @11/8 I don't really rate big Ivo at the moment. He was taken apart by Youzhny in Doha and didn't really impress me against Berlocq in the last round. His return game is poorer than ever and although he'll serve aces I think Federer will get chances. He only needs to take one per set to cover this line. The time off will have given the Swiss time to rest his back and I think it'll be another comfortable win to make everyone believe that he can win the tournament. Alejandro Falla v Philipp Kohlschreiber Over 37.5 Games - £50 @8/11 I think that Falla could spring a surprise tonight but Kohlschreiber has a 3-0 head-to-head record and that's a worry. I do think that whoever wins tonight doesn't do so easily. Falla took four sets to beat Fognini and Kohli needed five to get past Monaco. I see at least 4 but that's priced at 4/7 and the overs is 8/11. Tomas Berdych (-6.5 Games) v Kevin Anderson - £50 @11/10 I watched Anderson lose 6-3, 6-3 to Mannarino last week and he was utter garbage. I know he's come through his opening two matches in Oz but I'm not impressed. Berdych, on the other hand, looks fit and hungry. He destroyed Rochus and also covered this line against Ramos, despite dropping a set. I think that even if it takes four he'll cover the handicap tonight Feliciano Lopez to beat John Isner - £50 @11/10 Going against the grain with this pick. Isner is expected to win tonight after coming through against Nalbandian but the American isn't the fittest and he could easily struggle tonight. A lot of people have been critical of Lopez's perfromances in Melbourne but I think he's done what he had to, breaking at opportune moments. I'm willing to play him as an underdog tonight. Stanislas Wawrinka v Nicolas Almagro Over 36.5 Games - £50 @10/11 Why is this line so low? I know Wawrinka will win but Almagro will fight. The Spaniard took four sets to beat Kubot and five against Dimitrov so I think he can muster up one against Wawrinka, who needed four to beat Baghdatis. Over 3.5 sets is 4/6 and I can't the game line not being covered if the match goes to four. They played out a five setter in the Davis Cup in 2010. Romina Oprandi to beat Julia Goerges - £50 @11/8 Oprandi beat Schiavone in the last round and comfortably beat Yakimova in the first round. She lost to Goerges in 2010 but the German has dipped since then. She retired against Jankovic in Sydney last week and I don't think she's quite right here. She struggled with Hercog in round one and then got through round two when Daniilidou retired. I can see an upset here and I'll give the win odds a try. Christina McHale (+4.5 Games) v Jelena Jankovic - £50 @Evens I hate Jankovic. She's a horrible player and you can't trust her at all. She plays okay but makes too many errors and can lose to anyone. Beating two qualifiers in the opening rounds is nothing much to shout about and she will be really tested by McHale. The American is improving every time she plays in a major tournament and goes further each one she plays. I know she lost 6-2, 6-0 to Jankovic last year but she's still only 19. I think she push the Serb all the way tonight and I wouldn't be too surprised if she actually won. Total Outlay - £400 + £100 ante-post. Good luck to everyone betting tonight :ok

First, thanks for the support guys! Second, awful night! I'll go through the bets one by one Wozniacki Over 18.5 Games -£50 This bet was my worst of the night. I hadn't seen Niculescu play and didn't realise she had the technique of a chimp who has been given a racquet for the first time. Awful and the surprise was that Wozniacki gave up 4 games. The Dane isn't playing well but this wasn't the time to fade her. Roger Federer v Ivo Karlovic Under 31.5 Games - £50 Meh, sometimes there's nothing you can do. Roger looked as frustrated as me that big Ivo was impeccable on serve. A losing bet but I won't lose any sleep over it. Alejandro Falla v Philipp Kohlschreiber Over 37.5 Games - £50 Thought this one was a no brainer but Falla collapsed like a wendy house that had ben sat on by an elephant. Could have been different if he'd taken the tie-break in the third but it wasn't to be. Tomas Berdych (-6.5 Games) v Kevin Anderson + £55 Wahey, a win! Berdych was impressive but he just managed to sneak over the line thanks to a 6-1 win in the third set after two breakers. The Czech's playing well though so I think the pick was fine. Feliciano Lopez to beat John Isner +£55 Another win! Lopez made it as hard as possible but he got there in the end. He played better than Isner and should have really won in straight sets. Stanislas Wawrinka v Nicolas Almagro Over 36.5 Games - £50 Feel a bit let down here and I imagine I'm not the only one. Wawrinka wasn't good enough and gave away far too many stupid points on his serve. He was a break up in the first and also lost his serve in the final game of the match. Take the hit and move on. Romina Oprandi to beat Julia Goerges - £50 This was the one that really had me annoyed. Oprandi was coasting to victory after taking the first set and traded very low. I considered buying out my bet then she picked up an injury and Goerges came back. Watching this match was painful. I'm still not sure whether the bet was the right one or not. Maybe a bit more research into Oprandi's fitness was needed? Christina McHale (+4.5 Games) v Jelena Jankovic - £50 I was tucked up in bed by the time this match came on, which is apt because I'd probably have been hiding behind the sofa or watching through my fingers. 6-2, 6-0. Ouch! So, that gives a total of +165 for the 3 wins and -£300 for the six losses, giving the following: Total Bets: 10 Total Wins: 3 Total Losses: 6 Total Pending: 1 Start Bank: £600 Total Staked: £550 Total Profit: -£135 :sad Total Pending: £100 Current betting balance: £365 Difficult to draw any conclusions from such a bad night other than that I just got it wrong with a lot of matches. Hoping for much better tonight.

[captaincool]

Re: Winning £1000 at the Australian Open Okay, here we go again. Hopefully tonight will be better, if not then I guess this could be the end of this glory hunt :$ Gael Monfils (-7.5) v Mikhail Kukushkin - £40 @10/11 I watched Monfils against Bellucci and although he gave up a set the Frenchman played very well and he took the last 3 sets 6-0, 6-4, 6-2. Kukushkin, who is ranked just inside the top 100, came through a tough five setter with Viktor Troicki but Monfils crushed the Serb in Doha recently. I think he gets the job done in 3 with a few breaks. David Ferrer (-8) v Juan Ignacio Chela - £40 @8/11 Chela surprised a lot of people with his win over Andujar but the Spaniard is only really good on the dirt and I'm not taking much notice of that win. Ferrer needed five to beat Sweeting but I don't think he'll have the same problems against Chela who doesn't really have much of a serve. They haven't played in five years so the head-head (1-2) is a bit irrelevant. I see Ferrer getting back on track with a comfortable win over a player he, in theory, matches up well with. Milos Raonic (-5.5) v Lleyton Hewitt - £40 @10/11 My most confident pick but I've decided to keep stakes level at the moment. I'll change that after tonight (might have to be all in on just one bet!) but anyway, Hewitt was rubbish against a half fit Roddick and I just don't see him coping against Raonic whose serve is monstrous. The Canadian will thrive in the atmosphere on Rod Laver almost as much as the Australian and I think he'll get the job pretty quickly. Could take four but the line allows for that. Kei Nishikori to beat Julien Benneteau - £40 @4/5 Benneteau is 30 years old and has been a journeyman all his career. He's good enough to slog through some matches but lacks a bit of spark and I think he'll come unstuck tonight. Nishikori came back from 2-0 down against Ebden and closed out in style taking the last 3 sets 6-4, 6-1, 6-1. He might have to dig deep and I was very tempted by the Over 38.5 game line but I'm keeping it simple and going with who I think will win. Richard Gasquet to beat Janko Tipsarevic - £40 @17/20 The match of the night. Gasquet is one of my favourite players as he is great to watch. His backhand is a thing of beauty and he's a very good player over five sets. Tipsarevic has looked shaky in Oz and needed four sets to beat both Tursunov and Duckworth. He's 0-2 against Gasquet and I think the Frenchman can make it 0-3 tonight. This is another that I thought about the overs in but I'm not biting. Ana Ivanovic (-5.5) v Vania King - £40 @4/5 King beat Pavlyuchenkova in the last round but the Russian has been way out of sorts for a while now. Ivanovic looked pretty ruthless against Karjicek and Dominguez-Lino and she will be confident against King due to a 3-0 head to head. She's covered this line in all three and I hope she can again tonight. Petra Kvitova (-5.5) v Maria Kirilenko - £40 @4/6 Almost didn't take this as the price is a little slim but I think Kvitova is a few levels above Kirilenko who I don't rate too highly. Petra beat her 6-2, 6-2 when they met in the Fed Cup but the result I'm focusing on is Maria's 6-3, 6-0 loss to Arvidsson in Sydney last week. The Swede is utter garbage and if Kirilenko can be crushed by her then she can be crushed by Kvitova. Marion Bartoli (-3.5) v Jie Zheng - £40 @10/11 Zheng won when the two met in Melbourne 2 years ago but if memory serves me right Bartoli was injured after the first set (which she won) and then gave up. The Frechwoman is fit just now and is playing very well. She sailed through the first two rounds and I think she can win without too much fuss tonight. Jie won Auckland but she was awful against Kuznetsova in the semi final and should have lost before Pennetta retired in the final. Straight sets or three with Bartoli winning one very easily. Ekatarina Makarova (+4.5) v Vera Zvonareva - £40 @5/6 Zvonareva's been on a downslope for quite a while and I don't think she'll be in the top 10 for too much longer. She gives up too many points on serve and is broken all the time. She narrowly beat Dulgheru in round one and made hard work of Hradecka in round two. Makarova beat two good players in Tanasugarn and Kanepi, the win over the Estonian particularly impressive. The Russians are 2-2 in head-to-heads and I think Makarova has a good chance of actually winning tonight. Playing the handicap to be a bit safer and will be disappointed if this bet doesn't win. Total Staked: £360 Total Remaining: £5 :eek

[captaincool]

Re: Winning £1000 at the Australian Open The Kvitova bet was voided after Kirilenko retired at 6-0, 1-0 :wall I'm watching Tsonga v Gil. Tsonga's 6-2, 1-0 up and Gil's playing horribly, missing everything and making tons of errors. I'm putting the Kvitova stake on Tsonga (-10.5 games I/P). Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (-10.5) v Federico Gil I/P - £40 @8/11

[anaconda69]

Re: Winning £1000 at the Australian Open

The Kvitova bet was voided after Kirilenko retired at 6-0, 1-0 :wall I'm watching Tsonga v Gil. Tsonga's 6-2, 1-0 up and Gil's playing horribly, missing everything and making tons of errors. I'm putting the Kvitova stake on Tsonga (-10.5 games I/P). Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (-10.5) v Federico Gil I/P - £40 @8/11

Good idea good luck i have 3-0 tonga:hope

[captaincool]

Re: Winning £1000 at the Australian Open

Good idea good luck i have 3-0 tonga:hope

Thanks. I think your 3-0 is in the bag. The handicap is looking a little ropey at the moment. It's 3-2 Tsonga in the third set and he needs to take it 6-3 to cover the line. Another break is needed. :hope

[anaconda69]

Re: Winning £1000 at the Australian Open 5-2 now itll be yours:clap

[captaincool]

Re: Winning £1000 at the Australian Open

5-2 now itll be yours:clap

Yes, 6-2, 6-2, 6-2. Gil was nowhere near good enough. Tsonga had a little dip midway through the third set but I guess Gil's head was gone by then. Congratulations on your bet. :ok

[captaincool]

Re: Winning £1000 at the Australian Open Adding one more this evening. Novak Djokovic (-10.5) v Nicolas Mahut - £40 @5/6 Mahut was pretty terrible against Ito and I think he'll simply be picked off by Djokovic here. The risk is that the Frenchman serves enough aces to take down 7 games but I don't really think he's good enough to do it. Djokovic's returning and movement are simply too good. A big line but Nole has given up 3 games in a set just once in his last four matches. I don't think he does it twice against Mahut tonight.

[captaincool]

Re: Winning £1000 at the Australian Open Have taken one more in-play Sabine Lisicki to beat Svetlana Kuznetsova - £40 @4/6 This match is one set all at the moment but Kuznetsova is in the process of throwing it away. She was a set and a break up but is falling apart. The Russian does this nowadays and I think Lisicki can push on and beat here.

[captaincool]

Re: Winning £1000 at the Australian Open Gael Monfils (-7.5) v Mikhail Kukushkin - £40 @10/11 :eyes Monfils wasn't at the races today. Played terribly. Poor pick. David Ferrer (-8) v Juan Ignacio Chela - £40 @8/11 :ok A good pick. Ferrer gave me a bit of a scare by losing the first four games but after that he only lost four and Chela couldn't cope. Milos Raonic (-5.5) v Lleyton Hewitt - £40 @10/11 I didn't watch this match but it looks like Raonic didn't play to his potential and Hewitt wanted it more. Fair play to the Australian. Kei Nishikori to beat Julien Benneteau - £40 @4/5 :ok He tried his best to throw it away early on but Nishikori came through in four sets. Can see Tsonga crushing the Japanese in the next round. Richard Gasquet to beat Janko Tipsarevic - £40 @17/20 :ok Glad I only took Gasquet outright and avoided the overs. Tipsarevic didn't turn up and was lucky it was only 6-3, 6-3, 6-1. Gasquet v Ferrer should be interesting next round. Ana Ivanovic (-5.5) v Vania King - £40 @4/5 :wall This was a good pick! King was hopeless and couldn't serve to save her life. Annoyingly Ivanovic threw in the odd pants game on her own serve meaning that the line was missed by 0.5 games. Petra Kvitova (-5.5) v Maria Kirilenko - £40 @4/6 :wall This was voided at 6-0, 1-0. Kirilenko was fine but outplayed until about 5-0 but then pulled a muscle or something. Was counting my cash at the time. Marion Bartoli (-3.5) v Jie Zheng - £40 @10/11 :puke An awful performance from Bartoli. Like the Monfils one it was just a bad pick. Ekatarina Makarova (+4.5) v Vera Zvonareva - £40 @5/6 :ok Probably my pick of the night. Makarova won 7-6, 6-1 and I was actually a little disappointed that I hadn't taken her to win. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (-10.5) v Federico Gil I/P - £40 @8/11 :ok Good in-play pick. Tsonga was good, Gil was garbage. Novak Djokovic (-10.5) v Nicolas Mahut - £40 @5/6 :ok 6-1 6-0 6-1. Fair play to Mahut for carrying on when injured. Thought he would retire after the first set. Sabine Lisicki to beat Svetlana Kuznetsova - £40 @4/6 :ok Lisicki coasted home as Kuznetsova was beaten. Pleased to sneak this one in. Total Bets: 12 Total Wins: 7 Total Losses: 4 Void: 1 Profit/Loss: +£62.55 Not as much profit as I probably deserved but I can't complain too much especially as stakes were slightly reduced. A £40 bet at 4/6 only returns £66.66. Much better picks this time and moving back in the right direction. The two in-play went well, which is maybe something to consider. Would have been a much bigger profit if bloody Kirilenko hadn't retired and Ivanovic had managed that extra game against the piece of crap King. New Bank: £422.55 Total Profit/Loss: -£77.45

[captaincool]

Re: Winning £1000 at the Australian Open Not too many matches today and I'm steering clear of Gasquet-Ferrer as that one could go either way. I'll be involved in the other men's matches though: Andy Murray (-9.5 games) v Mikhail Kukushkin - £50 @8/11 Murray was very good against Llodra and returned brilliantly and even bageled the Frenchman in the last set. He was also good against Vasselin and covered this handicap in both of those matches. Kukushkin has done well to get this far and surprised me by beating Monfils but he made hard work of that match after being 2-0 ahead and two five setters will take their toll. Murray's a bad player to play when tired and I don't see him giving up very much tonight. They played in Brisbane this month and Murray won 5-7, 6-3, 6-2. He won't have to work out Kukushkin tonight so I doubt there'll be an awkward first set and it should be fairly routine. Jo-Wilfiried Tsonga v Kei Nishikori Over 3.5 Sets - £50 @5/6 This is a very interesting game and there are a lot of people who think Nishikori can cause an upset. I don't think he's good enough to beat Tsonga but 2-0 head-to-head has to be respected. I definitely think the Japanese can cause some problems though and he can take a set from the fifth seed. Tsonga crushed Gil in the last round but the Portuguese beat himself. Nishikori isn't reliable but I think he'll stay alert enough to take advantage of a dip in Tsonga's level and sneak one break which will be enough for a set. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga v Kei Nishikori Tie Break in Match - £50 @8/11 As I've said, I think that Nishikori can cause a little bit of trouble for Tsonga and I'd be surprised if there isn't a tie-break in one of my predicted four sets. Tsonga hasn't had a tie-break in Oz but his big serving/weak returning game means that he is no stranger to long sets and 3 of his 9 sets in Doha recently went the distance. Nishikori had two breakers in four sets v Benneteau and one against Robert. The pair didn't have a tie-break when they met in Kooyong but that was an exhibition, they had one in the competitive match in Shanghai a few months ago. Petra Kvitova (-4.5 Games) v Ana Ivanovic - £50 @4/5 I watched Kvitova v Kirilenko and was very impressed. The Czech looked great and although Kirilenko retired her injury wasn't sustained until she was well beaten so Petra has to be respected. Ivanovic, on the other hand, was weak against King. She dropped serve too often and faced loads of break points. She was just lucky that King was hopeless on her own serve. Kvitova won't be so generous. Serena Williams (-7.5 Games) v Ekatarina Makarova - £50 @11/10 I backed Makarova against Zvonareva but it's the end of the line for her tonight. She basically beat Vera because Zvonareva is garbage on serve. Even then she had a chance and stayed competitive in virtually every game, even forcing a few breaks of Makarova's serve. Serena's been ruthless so far in Oz and she won't give anything up and I see her steamrollering the Russian tonight. Jie Zheng v Sara Errani - Zheng to win 2-0 - £50 @Evens I was on Bartoli against Jie and I'm not too proud to admit I made a mistake. Hoping to rectify it by backing the Chinese tonight. She was comfortable against Bartoli and hasn't yet dropped a set in Oz. Errani beat Cirstea but she lost the first set before the Romanian picked up an injury and lost 6-0 in the second. Provided there's nothing similar tonight I think Zheng takes the first and the second. Price is better than the 10/11 offered on -4.5 and allows a bit more leeway. Total Staked: £300 :hope

[captaincool]

Re: Winning £1000 at the Australian Open Added one more. I'm going to live or die by my picks tonight: Kvitova v Ivanovic - 2-0 Kvitova - £50 @8/11 This bet is being made for much the same reasons as the handicap and since the price has just lengthened from 4/6 I'm taking it. This acts as a bit of insurance for the handicap but I hope they'll both be winning. :hope

[captaincool]

Re: Winning £1000 at the Australian Open A hugely frustrating night. Some bad calls in the women's matches and good analysis of the Tsonga game but bad bet selection. Usual Djokovic bet for me: Novak Djokovic v Lleyton Hewitt Under 28.5 Games - £75 @8/15 A little bit extra on a generous line. Nothing so far has suggested that Djokovic won't crush Hewitt and I think it'll be done very quickly. One break per set covers this and I think it'll be a lot more comprehensive than that.

[captaincool]

Re: Winning £1000 at the Australian Open Just spotted another bet that I'm not passing up. Novak Djokovic total games - Under 18.5 @8/11 - £50 Got a lot of liabilities on the Djok now but he's the best in the world by a mile. Hopefully he can claim a break per set and cover this and the other line. I'll have a look at his outright odds as well and might go back in on him as I need to ramp this up.

[captaincool]

Re: Winning £1000 at the Australian Open Disgrace from the world number one. I'm too angry to bother with a proper update. Might just quit this now.

[sadfrog]

Re: Winning £1000 at the Australian Open Hewitt showed a lot of heart. I Wanted him to win, since I didn't bet anything on that game. Do not give up captaincool! ;)

[captaincool]

Re: Winning £1000 at the Australian Open Okay, so the 3 bets that won returned + £118 profit The five lost bets meant that I dropped £275 So that was a nightly loss of £157. Subtract that from the £422 and I'm now sitting on a not very nice looking £265. Now, this is pretty bad as I started with £600. This means that I'm going to have to become overly aggressive here because there isn't enough time left in the tournament to reach the £1600 target otherwise. No guts no glory.

[captaincool]

Re: Winning £1000 at the Australian Open Okay, here goes Roger Federer v Juan Martin Del Potro total games Over 37.5 - £110 @8/11 Juan Martin Del Potro (+4.5 Games) v Roger Federer - £100 @Evens I think Del Potro can beat Federer tonight. The former world number one has been winning rave reviews Down Under for some effective tennis but he's not been tested yet and was visibly frustrated when he couldn't get a sniff on Karlovic's serve. Okay, Del Potro doesn't have the same power as big Ivo but he's a million times more mobile and is right at the top of his game. He demolished Kohli and Lu and they aren't terrible players. He dropped a set against Mannarino but the Frenchman had been playing well in Auckland the week before, beating Anderson in straight sets after qualifying. Federer hasn't dropped a set but he was beaten pretty comprehensively by Nadal and Djokovic in an exhibition tournament earlier this month and withdrew when he had to play Tsonga in Doha. I know these aren't Grand Slams but that's not good for your confidence. The Swiss went out in the quarters at Wimbledon and the French Open in recent years so there's no divine right for him to reach the semis here, and he knows it. The last time they met Federer won in straight sets in Cincinnati but they needed three in London before that and had five set epics when Delpo won the US Open and in the French Open semis in 2009. I don't think Del Potro is back at that level but neither is Federer so I think we're back at that kind of rivalry. I'm expecting a tie-break and at least four sets so I'm playing both the overs and Del Potro on a plus. The Argentinian might just sneak this, if he goes down in straight sets well, fair enough at least he'll have gone down to a big performance from the best.