Flat Racing 10th Jan

[chris34]

12.55 Southwell Weak race with not a lot of recent form on the table worth talking about. 3 handicap debutants Hot Tub, Blonde Maite and Classical Chloe all look extremely limited and need to show rapid improvement in handicap debut. Very Well Red has a reasonable strike rate for a horse in this grade but hasnt been in same form this winter and although does have a win around here has also been well held more often than not here and wide draw not ideal for such a prominent runner. Spacecraft finally got off the mark on penultimate start and did little wrong when behind the improving Mataajir last time out but has never been a horse to back with confidence as he just often runs one paced and had plenty of chances off lower marks. Dado Mush is a standing dish around here and has dropped a huge amount in the weights but not without reason and cannot be backed in current form. St Ignatius is another regular around here that and is another that has dropped to a good looking mark but never won over this trip and this looks to stretch his stamina. Noble Attitude is of interest returned to this surface, switched yards and although didnt seem to work the oracle over the jumps but that was from a lay off and if stripping fitter and a return to this surface sparks something he is handicapped to take a hand having gone close this time last year off this mark. Also Fearless Poet is feared only 1 win to date and that was over CD in a weak nursery, has since run to similar levels on this surface without threatening the winners but dropped another 1lb and first time blinkers may just spark him back given he won in first time cheekpieces before. 2pt win Fearless Poet 4/1 hills 0.5pt e/w Noble Attitude 12/1 vc 1.25 Southwell Dreadful race but the current fav looks well worth opposing Brunello, showed little in maidens and made debut for this yard in a 5 runner event on New Years Day when staying on, probably flattered by that performance and that race doesnt look a solid form base and makes a quick reappearance again here is another concern. Manshoor is of interest on the back of recent hurdle win, but has since been off the track again 2 months which is off putting on fibresand debut. For me the most interesting candidate here is Unex Picasso who is another that comes here on the back of a hurdle win, only had the mandatory 3 flat starts in maidens to get handicap mark for the flat and therefore open to plenty of improvement having shown plenty of ability in first 2 starts, the win over hurdles came in first time cheekpieces and tongue tie which are retained for this handicap debut stable are in fantastic form and RacingPost also highlighted good sire stats with a 14% strike rate around here! 3pt win Unex Picasso 7/2 bet365 2.25 Southwell The cat is out of the bag with Laffan and I was pleased to be involved on New Years day on course but not sure he can be backed with same confidence today in a far more competitive field against some in form course specialists despite eventually getting on top fairly impressively last time out and of course more is likely but at 6/4 is probably about the right price. Sunny Side Up has been in good heart like many from the Fahey stable at the moment but has a bit to find at the weights with Laffan, he was 2nd behind Man Of My Word last time out who was since beaten by Laffan and is 2lb higher today. Small chances are taken on 2 in this race, Bitaphon is of interest returned to this track and dropped back to 6f looks a good move having looked very one paced over a mile at this track but previously ran out a decent winner of a 7f nursery in August around here only 4lb higher for that effort and top apprentice booked taking off a handy 5lb. The other that interests me is M J Woodward who landed a bit of a touch here last week, effectively only 5lb higher under penalty today and was going on well at the finish to suggest there was more to come and is now 2 from 3 around here with top AW jock on board ought to be thereabouts in a truly run race. 1pt win M J Woodward 6/1 pp 1pt win Bitaphon 9/1 pp

[skylark2009]

Re: Flat Racing 10th Jan 2.25 Southwell - Abshir Zain - A competitive handicap here with a lot of horses showing good recent form and could possibly produce a tight finish. Of the two last time out winners, both are course/distance winners LTO and look capable of progressing further, M J Woodward may be the better of the two here. Sunny Side Up also looks progressive and has previously finished ahead of M J Woodward and should still hold him today given the weights. I'll ultimately side with Abshir Zain here though, as he looks to be coming into form. He has been raised only 2lbs for his 1 length defeat by Mr Red Clubs last time out and he may have more in hand than his 2lb rise may suggests. This form has been franked when Mr Red Clubs won next time out. He is also ridden by the ever competent Hayley Turner today.

2.25 Southwell: Abshir Zain - 1pt win @ 10/1 Paddy Power (BOG)