Jump racing - Jan 9th - Monday

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Taunton 1:40
Selection	Cool Cascade (to be placed)
Strength	5/10
Date	09/01/2012
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 7.50
Reasoning	Only runner of the day from trainer Venetia Williams. Jockey Aidan Coleman is booked to ride. This is the only entry of the day from the partnership. Their last 5 combo's had been good for 3 wins and 1 more placed 2nd. Williams has a very good record here the last 5 seasons with 16 wins from 68 runs, 24%. Hurdlers are 12 from 46, 26%. It's hard to fancy their runner to win but may improve enough to be placed. She was pulled up last time out but that on heavy going. Her debut over hurdles two runs ago was for 9th of 17 on Good to Soft. She weakened from 2 out but was chasing the leaders during the race and with it being her debut it was an acceptable performance.

[Edberg]

Re: Jump racing - Jan 9th - Monday 3.10 Taunton 2 for 1 offer 9th February Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-120) Winner £4,224 Good To Soft 3m110y Number of runners: 11 CARRICKMINES 4/1 bog (Ladbrokes, William Hill and many more) I'm going with this 10 yo trained by Dr Richard Newland as he won his first ever race over hurdle one month ago over course and distance in very good style and his next out was a decent third at Ascot (over 1f more) carrying 11lb more than the day of his win (as he will have to carry today). In his win here at Taunton Carrickmines was held up towards rear making good progress after halfway stage to be ridden to chase leader approaching 2 out and ran on strongly to lead in the run-in winning in good style. That day he beat Spanish Cruise (4l) who went on to snatch another good second in his next out at Huntingdon on Boxing Day carrying 5lb more. Also Colin Tizzard's Ceepeegee (5th that day) was second nto and 4th in his following start. So the form of that race is surely not that bad. Carrickmines' next start was at Ascot where he finished third behind David Pipe's Water Garden who went up 14lb (from 110 to 124) after that win and Jonjo O'Neill's Well Hello There who went up 13lb (from 116 to 129) after that close (hd) second to Water Garden. Carrickmines was third 18l behind the leading duo but after being outpaced by his rivals came back quite well and two more horses have boosted another little bit that form with two good races nto: Stormhoek, 8th that day and a winner lto, and Dusky Bob, last that day and a close second last week. The French bred Tigre D'Anon, trained by Paul Nicholls, looks one of Carrickmines' main rivals today but he was more than disappointing lto when making his debut for his new powerful yard and should improve a lot (getting close to his maiden win when he beat by a nose the useful High Ransom one year ago at Wetherby) to beat my selection today since the handicapper didn't make any discount and he is still rated 120. Charles Egerton's Carribs Leap is another who maintains his mark of 118 even if his reappearance after a long break was very poor. Both can improve but I will be happy to oppose them today. Mac Federal was competing at Cheltenham Festival 5 years ago (dual winner over hurdles) and could be anything after 1731 days since his last run over hurdles (252 since his last flat race) but it's hardy to fancy today. Dantari won his only 3 races in 2009 when he went up to 132 after his last win at Chepstow but since then he disappointed a lot and had to go back to 110 to have a close second lto when he was the favourite of the race (as in his previous start). Now he goes up to 115 again and the ground could be a problem. Philadelphus could be a danger as he was able to snatch only another 5th lto (4 times 5th and once PU in his 5 career starts) but he didn't make a bad debut in handicap company (8 1/2 behind Real Milan and very close to 3rd and 4th in a Cl5 Maiden Handicap at Uttoxeter 24 days ago) and is still unexposed of course. Madame Jasmine, 3rd lto, drops another 1lb but her only career win over hurdles came out of a mark or 95 so 100 could still be too much for her today. The others make no appeal at all in this contest. So all in all Carrickmines has plenty of experience and proved to be in good form and suited by this track. He can handle a 111 mark over hurdle since he was rated 130 over fences (124 atm) where he collected 6 wins and ran in many listed and in a grade 3 event less than one year ago. His trainer Dr Richard Newland had 2 winners and 1 second with his last 3 runners in the last 10 days so his yard is surely in very good form at the moment. A lot in favour of Carrickmines and I'm happy to fancy his second win over hurdles today.