Beanie Posted January 22, 2005 Share Posted January 22, 2005 Just one I fancy trying out for a while as a paper trail, as its a bit more hypothetical than most systems and backtesting isnt the easiest(although I might try when I have more time.) The idea is backing a team who install a new manager for the three games after the new manager is in place, as after this period the odds will significantly shorten, or it will show that the team is just plain useless rather than anything to do with the manager. So with a starting bank of 100pts, and 3pts staked on a straight win every time, its just a case of waiting for a manager to get the chop. (PS If anyone has a better idea for the nuts and bolts rather than the above, Im all ears.) With the number of managers that go during a season, there should be selections most weeks. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidcampbell Posted January 22, 2005 Share Posted January 22, 2005 Re: The 'New Manager Syndrome' System waiting for a fellow human to go through the heartbreak of losing their job so you can have a system ..... nice idea :lol seriously though, its something everyone mentions has an impact. would be good to see something backing it up. good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beanie Posted January 23, 2005 Author Share Posted January 23, 2005 Re: The 'New Manager Syndrome' System waiting for a fellow human to go through the heartbreak of losing their job so you can have a system ..... nice idea :lol seriously though, its something everyone mentions has an impact. would be good to see something backing it up. good luck :ok Cheers, though your comment got me thinking, and it would have to be those teams who get rid of their manager as a result of poor form at some point during a season, rather than a club who loses a manager who simply moving on to bigger and better things Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted January 23, 2005 Share Posted January 23, 2005 Re: The 'New Manager Syndrome' System In fact, there is a research with enough data which did Footy4cast some two years ago. Not going to publish it here without his permission and as he did it for another site, but can send you the file if interested. The thing is three games is two too many. Where the new manager syndrome comes into effect is exactly the first game when he's in charge. One reason may be that books react about immediately. Don't wait for the first home game, doesn't matter if the team is home or away and away wins will surely pay better. The conclusion is that in the long term you may be slightly in profit but not much. Also doing it for just some months will mean nothing, best way is to back test and if you see an edge go ahead.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beanie Posted January 23, 2005 Author Share Posted January 23, 2005 Re: The 'New Manager Syndrome' System In fact, there is a research with enough data which did Footy4cast some two years ago. Not going to publish it here without his permission and as he did it for another site, but can send you the file if interested. The thing is three games is two too many. Where the new manager syndrome comes into effect is exactly the first game when he's in charge. One reason may be that books react about immediately. Don't wait for the first home game, doesn't matter if the team is home or away and away wins will surely pay better. The conclusion is that in the long term you may be slightly in profit but not much. Also doing it for just some months will mean nothing, best way is to back test and if you see an edge go ahead.;) Cheers for the input...as I said I hadn't sat down and really thought through the 'system' specifics, so your ideas are appreciated, and i'll alter the plans accordingly, and do as much backtesting as possible when I get some free time. I too doubt it will turn up much, but costs nothing to give it a bash. I'd appreciate that data file if possible. Ta. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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