Jump racing Sat 7th Jan

[bowles10]

all selections in here please for the UK jump meetings

[cpo]

Re: Jump racing Sat 7th Jan 2.05 Sandown Dave’s Dream 4pts WIN @ 8/1 Paddy Power This is a big bet for me tomorrow. I think he has an excellent chance if putting in a good round of jumping. His last few runs over fences have not been too inspiring but last time out he looked to be travelling really well near the front before making a terrible mistake and coming down 4 fences out bringing down Tanks for That in the process. I fully believe they have been running this horse over the wrong trip and his best form has come around 2miles. Dave’s Dream form figures around 2miles is 1-1-1-1-6-1-1-U with only the last 3 of these runs coming over fences. Today he gets s 2miles around Sandown which should suit him perfectly. He proved this by romping home by 7 lengths over CD in the Imperial Cup back in 2009. He hasn’t fulfilled his potential over fences but he has only had 3 runs over this trip. First time out over fences at Huntingdon he won a novice chase over 17f and he won a 2m handicap chase at Cheltenham by 8 lengths very easily. Last time out was the first time in his career that he has come down and I don’t expect him to make the same error in this race. I don’t think he would want it too soft but he has shown in the past that he can handle soft conditions. I feel he is a better horse on good ground though. Nicky Henderson is still banging in the winners left right and centre and David Bass takes a handy 3lbs off his back which will help as he does have plenty of weight to carry. That being said horses carrying 11-6+ have won 4 of the last 6 renewals of this race. It also favours horses aged 8+ with only the majestic Master Minded breaking this trend by winning it at 5. Dave’s Dream seems to fit the bit on every account and I am hoping for a massive run. There are obvious dangers in this race with the bottom weight All For Free being one of the biggest. He is improving at a rate of knots but will find this much tougher than his last 2 races that he has won very comfortably. He has been made favourite for the race but I think he might just struggle in this field. Venetia Williams has a bit of form but her horses are still a little in and out for me so I couldn’t be having her runner here Rileyev. Hold Fast has to be respected coming from very powerful connections but the biggest threat may well come from my selections stable mate. Tanks for That got brought down by my selection last time out and was travelling just as well at the time. He won 2 outings ago so is in good form and Barry Geraghty takes the ride which is always a plus. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Nicky Henderson had the first 2 in this but I really think Dave’s Dream has an excellent chance over a CD which will suit him down to the ground. He hasn’t won many times in recent years but I am hoping everything is in place for a big run tomorrow.

[cpo]

Re: Jump racing Sat 7th Jan 3.10 Sandown Wymott 2pts EW @ 12/1 Bet365 I think Wymott is worth chancing again here after a disappointing run last time out in gruelling conditions at Haydock. That run followed his excellent run on his return to action in the Hennessey where he finished just over 6 lengths behind Curruthers. Wymott has a good record over jumps winning 50% of the time and he never puts in back to back poor performances. Donald McCain has already said he expects a better performance from the horse and they will be using more forceful tactics with him rather than holding him up like at Haydock. The favourites have a poor record in this race with no winning favourites in the last 6 running's of this race. The lowest price winner of the race in that time has been 7/2 with the next lowest price coming at 8/1. I think he looks a cracking each way bet in this race with plenty of doubts surrounding his opponents. Exmoor Ranger is now a 10 year old so it is very doubtful that there will be any more improvement from him and he has always found this sort of mark too tough. Qhilmar has plenty to prove and Any Currency may find this too short. This is a tough race for Be There in Five to be retuning in and The Panama Kid's improvement came to an end last time out and may struggle. Neptune Collognes can go well but he has plenty of weight and may just find a couple of these too good. Master of the Hall looks a massive threat but his best performances have come when the ground has been soft-heavy. The unexposed Hold on Julio looks the biggest danger as he won over CD last time out very easily. That was a weaker race and he has 16lbs more to carry in this so it will be tough to follow up. Hopefully Wymott can bounce back and get his chase career back on track after a promising start to it last year. Donald McCain is in form at the moment and although he doesn't have the greatest of records at the track, I think he holds a great chance in this with Wymott.

[bowles10]

Re: Jump racing Sat 7th Jan 2.05 SAndown At last, Henderson puts Daves Dream back on a flat course rather than the Cheltenhma undulations. This horse could have a few more decent races at the minimum trip if left on a flat course. Its record speaks for itself with finishing positions of 4311011 on a flat course. David Bass is an excellent jockey and takes off a handy 3lb although this leaves the horse on OR144. Its record over 2m is 11111U which cannot be ignored. Has to overcome a 7lb higher weight than best win but those other figures mean i have to get a bet on at these generous odds Bet 0.5pts win 8/1 Bet365

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Jump racing Sat 7th Jan

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Sandown 2:05
Selection	Tanks For That (Each-way)
Strength	5/10
Date	07/01/2012
Bookmaker/Price	Boylesports @ 6.00
Reasoning	Jockey Barry Geraghty has two rides today in a race with two runners from trainer Nicky Henderson. Geraghty does have an overall form of 1st, Fell, 1st, 16th, 4th, 1st in races when Henderson has two runners in the field. With 3 wins and 1 more being placed from 6 his two mounts in such a race holds some value. The selection won on reappearance at Cheltenahm by 3 lenghs last November. He fell next time out but but he's still better than ever and has a big chance here. He had his first career win at this track over hurdles in 2009 and will handle the track well now chasing.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Jump racing Sat 7th Jan

Tip Detail

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Sandown 3:10
Selection	Master Of The Hall
Strength	10/10
Date	07/01/2012
Bookmaker/Price	Boylesports @ 4.50
Reasoning	Jockey Barry Geraghty has two rides today in a race with two runners from trainer Nicky Henderson. Geraghty does have an overall form of 1st, Fell, 1st, 16th, 4th, 1st in races when Henderson has two runners in the field. With 3 wins and 1 more being placed from 6 his two mounts in such a race holds some value. The selection won by 16 lengths at Aintree last month and that was his first run since April. The race was a Listed contest so the drop to a Class 2 is suitable. Tamarinbleu finsihed 2nd in that race and he followed up with a win in a Class 2 Handicap Chase at Haydock. That rival also placed 2nd in a similar just two weeks before so the form is solid. Nacarat finished 3rd by 22 lengths to the selection.

[bowles10]

Re: Jump racing Sat 7th Jan cpo....we both have the same feeling about Daves dream, i was really excited to see it running at Sandown with those 2m stats and also on a flat course

[cpo]

Re: Jump racing Sat 7th Jan

cpo....we both have the same feeling about Daves dream' date=' i was really excited to see it running at Sandown with those 2m stats and also on a flat course[/quote'] Yeh fingers crossed Bowles :hope His record over 2m is phenomenal.

[BankofKauto]

Re: Jump racing Sat 7th Jan 3.10 Sandown Be There In Five 0.5pt e/w @ 16/1 Ladbrokes BOG Be There In Five is a 2nd season chaser that could be capable of improving on his current mark of 138. The form of his 3rd in the 4 miler at the Cheltenham festival has worked out well, Beshabar was 2nd that day and went on to win the Scottish National and is now rated 150. Alfa Beat was 3 1/4 lengths behind our selection in the Cheltenham race and he has since won the Kerry National and is rated 158. A drop back to 3m may not suit Be There In Five but the race is sure to be run at a strong pace with several front runners in the field and Be There In Five could be staying on strongly at the end. On the downside Be There In Five has not ran for 266 days so we have to trust Nicky Henderson has him fit first time out. Also Barry Geraghty choses to ride the other Henderson horse Master of the Hall. I think 16/1 makes up for these negatives and I am hopeful of a good run. i am also going to do a reverse forecast perm with the Panama Kid and Any Currency, maybe even a cheeky tricast :eek

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Jump racing Sat 7th Jan 2.05 SANDOWN NOMECHEKI .25 E/W 20/1 Bet365 1-3 1/4 The rag here who is poor form but if able to bounce back mainly cutting out the jumping errors here has a fair chance and back to a suitable distance here. Owners horses are running well. 2.50 WINCANTON CONSIGLIERE 8/1 PP .25 WIN BET Pipe horse very capable on his day. Good run lto if can step up a bit from that should go well in this small field. 3.25 WINCANTON ARCTIC WINGS 16/1 Boylesports .75 E/W Was a maximum bet for the thread lto and claimed third late for the e/w should go well here even though theres doubts about the horse going this way around the track although i disagree with that and am very hopefully of another big run as seems to be running into form and slightly shorter trip will suit.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Jump racing Sat 7th Jan 2:35 Sandown: Magnifique Etoile 1pt win 8/1 32Red The sponsors looks a bit overpriced with Charlie Longsdon's progressive hurdler. Magnifique Etoile has notched up a hat trick coming in to this race and has never really been extended at Market Rasen Stratford or Bangor. Its hard to assess that form although the second and third last time out were trained by Donald McCain and Paul Nicholls, and while they were not stars from those powerful yards, Amron Lad and Billy Merriott have shown some fairish form. With little to go on, its possible to take the view that Magnifique Etoile could be over matched here. However, at the price its worth chancing there is even more to come, particularly with Charlie Longsdon is going well. 3:25 Wincanton: Gallox Bridge 1pt e/w 6/1 Paddy Power (1/4 123) Gallox Bridge lines up here for a hat trick bid and the form of his last couple of runs since joining Tim Vaughan have worked out well. At Uttoxeter last time Gallox Bridge beat Kings Lodge giving weight. Next time out Kings Lodge won comfortably and then went down by a short head off 117 next time. Gallox Bridge has jumped right in the past however that won't be a problem today. Michael Byrne takes off a handy five pounds. No Loose Change will be a massive danger if taking the form of his last time out third literally, where the winner Ballyrock went on to run third to Fingal Bay, however, sometimes those Graded form lines just don't work out.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jump racing Sat 7th Jan 1.55 Newcastle - 3pts win My Arch @ 9/2 (VC) Ollie Pears' runner stays all day on the flat which makes him a threat over hurdles, especially over a testing three miles. He has been running well in three hurdles races this season - although the tests may not have been sufficient enough. Still, he got his head in front two starts ago at Wetherby. The runs either side were very respectable - a staying on 2nd at Musselburgh over an insufficient 2m4f and a game fourth back at Wetherby last time over 2m6f. He was under pressure for a while that day and jumped poorly up the straight (jump at last was okay) but stayed on dourly to finish just 5l behind the leaders, and an extra 2f would have seen him go very close - suggesting this mark is not beyond him. He's had 2 seconds and a first among his runs at Newcastle so the course isn't an issue and the testing nature of the track over this three mile trip will see him to his best. This is probably the most suitable race he's had this season and will certainly find out any chinks in the other runner's stamina. Papamoa is likely to relish the step up in trip but has a 7lb penalty for a second placed runner last time, and Theologist similar. That one is always worth taking on despite travelling well and this mark will make his task tougher. My Arch will hopefully jump a bit better today but is bound to be staying on and he does have the quality to take this. This is Brian Hughes only ride of the day and I hope he's not going to make up the numbers!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jump racing Sat 7th Jan 2.05 Sandown - 3pts win Hold Fast @ 5/1 (Hills) Very keen on Paul Nicholls' charge for this 2m handicap chase. Despite being beaten 7l by Rileyev at Newbury last time out, he has a big swing at the weights and fitness on his side this time. He was giving Venetia Williams' progressive horse a load of weight on that occasion, but put in a very brave effort to be in contention at the last before backing out of it up the run-in. This horse is very unexposed but has won 3 out of 8 starts and is clearly a talented individual. His record fresh isn't great which adds to the credit of his run at Newbury and I think he'll have come on plenty for it. Prior to that, he won two hurdles races before edging out Bellvano in a novice chase last January. My selection essentially ran to 135 or so on that occasion and I certainly feel that a 2lb higher mark than that is well within his grasp having had further experience over fences. He unseated rider in a hot contest next time before his return to action at Newbury. This is the quickest turnaround he's had recently and it should see him in better light. Obviously there are more threats in the race but I'm not sure All For Free has the class for this. I could go through more but plenty have a squeak but I'm really taken by this individual at a nice price in my opinion. He's open to plenty of progress and I think he'll certainly be better than a 137 horse by the end of the season.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jump racing Sat 7th Jan 3.10 Sandown - 1.5pts e/w Wymott @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes) Donald McCain's string are in good form at the moment and I think this represents a good chance to put Wymott back on the racing map. A very progressive horse over hurdles and fences, this fella has won 6 out of his 13 career starts and looked a staying chaser to follow prior to the Cheltenham festival last year. An injury prevented him from performing in the RSA and that run can safely be ignored. He did prove he was still a classy animal when returning in the Hennessy and ran a cracker to be 6th of 18 on that occasion. With natural improvement for the run, he was a well-fancied 2/1 favourite on bottomless ground at Haydock last time out. However, he was ridden with restraint - something which doesn't seem to bring out the best in his qualities. He's more of a galloper and he had little chance picking up under those tough conditions. I expect him to bounce back here under a more positive ride and a repeat of his Hennessy run will see him go close here.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jump racing Sat 7th Jan 3.25 Wincanton - 2pts win Gallox Bridge @ 6/1 (PP) This horse won't get a soft lead, and will have to jump better than last time in this tougher company, but I think he looks fairly handicapped with obvious improvement possible, and gets 5lbs taken off his back by Michael Byrne (19% for Tim Vaughan). Vaughan himself is in half-decent form but also has a strong record at the track - a 26% and a LSP of £15. This horse caught the eye when an 8l winner for Charlie Mann on his bumper debut, but since disappointed before moving yards, and has flourished this season - winning both hurdling starts. He's clearly got an engine as he's won well despite errors on both starts. He also jumped right-handed last time so the move to a right-handed track is far from a bad idea! The form looks solid, also. The 2nd placed horse (beaten 3 1/2l) hacked up next time before two second placed efforts and is now rated 125. Gallox Bridge runs off 120 today with 5lbs taken off his back so there should be more to come off this mark if he can improve his jumping. These are tricky races but there are plenty of positives for this one and the soft ground shouldn't inconvenience based on his bumper win.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Jump racing Sat 7th Jan

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Sandown 1:00
Selection	Kells Belle
Strength	10/10
Date	07/01/2012
Bookmaker/Price	William Hill @ 3.00
Reasoning	Jockey Barry Geraghty has ridden 3 wins and 2 more placed from his last 8 rides for trainer Nicky Henderson when it comes to Saturday races. The partnership is scheduled for 6 runs today. Geraghty has an excellent record at the track this last 5 seasons; 14 wins from 43 rides, 33% strike rate, H:10/27, C:4/14, N:0/2. He has four rides on the Hurdle course and two on the Chase course. His hurdling form is much better than his Chase form so that is a good sign. Since the 2009-2010 season on the hurdling track he has bagged himself a 50% strike rate or 7 wins from 14 rides. The selection has been running well in competitive Handicaps verusus male runners this season. All three runs were good enough for a placed effort and should find it easier now back to an all Mares field.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Jump racing Sat 7th Jan

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Sandown 2:35
Selection	Captain Conan (Each-way)
Strength	5/10
Date	07/01/2012
Bookmaker/Price	Coral @ 6.00
Reasoning	Jockey Barry Geraghty has ridden 3 wins and 2 more placed from his last 8 rides for trainer Nicky Henderson when it comes to Saturday races. The partnership is scheduled for 6 runs today. Geraghty has an excellent record at the track this last 5 seasons; 14 wins from 43 rides, 33% strike rate, H:10/27, C:4/14, N:0/2. He has four rides on the Hurdle course and two on the Chase course. His hurdling form is much better than his Chase form so that is a good sign. Since the 2009-2010 season on the hurdling track he has bagged himself a 50% strike rate or 7 wins from 14 rides. The selectionis making his UK debut for this Grade 1 race (Tolworth Hurdle). Henderson won this race last year so he must really like how the selection is working out at home being taken to this race.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Jump racing Sat 7th Jan

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Sandown 3:45
Selection	Higgy's Raggazo (Each-way)
Strength	5/10
Date	07/01/2012
Bookmaker/Price	Totesport @ 7.00
Reasoning	Jockey Barry Geraghty has ridden 3 wins and 2 more placed from his last 8 rides for trainer Nicky Henderson when it comes to Saturday races. The partnership is scheduled for 6 runs today. Geraghty has an excellent record at the track this last 5 seasons; 14 wins from 43 rides, 33% strike rate, H:10/27, C:4/14, N:0/2. He has four rides on the Hurdle course and two on the Chase course. His hurdling form is much better than his Chase form so that is a good sign. Since the 2009-2010 season on the hurdling track he has bagged himself a 50% strike rate or 7 wins from 14 rides. The selectionwas second only to stablemate Lifestyle (ridden by Geraghty) on his reappearance at Kempton Park the day after Boxing Day. Most likely he will have more to give this time out. He has won twice and placed 2nd twice more from five career starts over hurdles. The only unplaced run was in the Grade 3 Swinton Hurdle last year so being in a Class 2 is within his abilities.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Jump racing Sat 7th Jan

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Sandwon 1:35
Selection	Soliwery
Strength	10/10
Date	07/01/2012
Bookmaker/Price	Skybet @ 0.00
Reasoning	Jockey Barry Geraghty has ridden 3 wins and 2 more placed from his last 8 rides for trainer Nicky Henderson when it comes to Saturday races. The partnership is scheduled for 6 runs today. Geraghty has an excellent record at the track this last 5 seasons; 14 wins from 43 rides, 33% strike rate, H:10/27, C:4/14, N:0/2. He has four rides on the Hurdle course and two on the Chase course. His hurdling form is much better than his Chase form so that is a good sign. Since the 2009-2010 season on the hurdling track he has bagged himself a 50% strike rate or 7 wins from 14 rides. The selection is making his UK debut coming here from France. He placed 2nd there LTO and now runs in the colors of owner Michael Buckley. The selection is half-brother to Soliya and also the Buckley owned Solix who is a smart 2m1f-2m5f hurdle/chase winner.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Jump racing Sat 7th Jan

Tip Detail

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Wincanton 3:25
Selection	Buckie Boy (To Be Placed)
Strength	10/10
Date	07/01/2012
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 4.00
Reasoning	Jockey Andrew Tinkler have been riding well for trainer Nicky Henderson this year and gives the selection a good chance of at least being placed. Tinkler's form for Henderons so far have 5 runs with all able to be at least Placed, 12212. He has two booked rides at the track for Henderson today with the selection showing the best best value. The selection was well beaten on seasonal bow at Cheltenham LTO after being in touch. He made headway after 3 out but made a mistake and weakened 2 out. That was only his second start over hurdles (Flat performer for Henry Cecil). His hurdling debut was good for a win at Huntingdon last January with Geraghty in the saddle. He had the the inexperienced Charlie Wallis on board LTO and he has a 5% strike rate over hurdles (11 wins from 232 rides). Tinkler is more experienced and knows how to win on a Henderson horse.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Jump racing Sat 7th Jan 3:10 Sandown: The Knoxs 1pt win 8/1 Bet365 The Knoxs appears to be the second string for Paul Nicholls, yet he has some decent form both over hurdles and starting out over fences. His last chase run before leaving Howard Johnson was a comfortable defeat of Sam Lord at Carlisle. He is well below his hurdle rating over fences today and the trip should be no problem as he comfortably saw off Five Dream over three miles on soft at Exeter. Presumably Ruby could have ridden The Knoxs, however, Ryan Mahon takes off a handy three pounds and with Paul Nicholls always a man to be feared on a Saturday, The Knoxs looks likley to give a good account.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Jump racing Sat 7th Jan 3:45 Sandown: Synthe Davis 1pt win 20/1 Bet365 * Taking a flyer here with Sythe Davis who probably ran his best ran on this card last year when fourth to Banjaxed Girl in a Listed hurdle. After a couple of modest efforts this year he has been dropped to 120. If he were to put in a decent round of jumping Synthe Davis could surprise. * was 25s a few mins ago when posted in my thread....still worth a small interest

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Jump racing Sat 7th Jan

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Sadown 2:05
Selection	Hold Fast (To Be Placed)
Strength	10/10
Date	07/01/2012
Bookmaker/Price	Coral @ 2.14
Reasoning	Good 4th of 7 by 7 lengths at Newbury (2m1f) from nearly 7 months off last October. His chasing career is still open to progress and will be bang there if that he's able to build on his last run. His first two runs over fences was for 2m; 4th of 8 by 11 lengths first try then improved his jumping by defeating Bellvano the 1/5 favorite by a neck. His Newbury run LTO had Rileyev, Passato, and Oh Crick in front. Now that he's had a run I think the price to be placed can be backed given he's from the Nicholls/Wals combo.

[Falbrav]

Re: Jump racing Sat 7th Jan DOUBLE DEFAULT 1.25 Newcastle. 1 point win. Drops in grade and with being pretty consistent, he should be able to take this off a mark of 105. The trip and ground shouldn't be of any concerns and others in the race are far from solid. Needs to be on his game, but more than capable. 13/2 Ladbrokes BOG

[bowles10]

Re: Jump racing Sat 7th Jan blimey could Daves dream have ran any worse, was never going fromDavid Bass, have to question why the cheekpieces are on, the horse didnt want to know, very disappointing

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jump racing Sat 7th Jan

blimey could Daves dream have ran any worse' date=' was never going fromDavid Bass, have to question why the cheekpieces are on, the horse didnt want to know, very disappointing[/quote'] He has the tendency to throw in a stinker. Not the least bit surprised, just disappointed.

[TheRat]

Re: Jump racing Sat 7th Jan Shown nothing since his last win at all. Seems to have lost interest

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jump racing Sat 7th Jan

Shown nothing since his last win at all. Seems to have lost interest

He was travelling lto before unseating. A very inconsistent horse.

[bowles10]

Re: Jump racing Sat 7th Jan

He was travelling lto before unseating. A very inconsistent horse.

squiggle then i assume, he was staying on ok just wondering if these changes t longer trips havent suited the horse which has a great record at 2m?

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jump racing Sat 7th Jan

squiggle then i assume' date=' he was staying on ok just wondering if these changes t longer trips havent suited the horse which has a great record at 2m?[/quote'] I'd only back him fresh. Was never that keen for today, but had to pick something for the comp.