Jump racing Sat 7th Jan

[bowles10]

all selections in here please for the UK jump meetings

[cpo]

Re: Jump racing Sat 7th Jan 2.05 Sandown Dave’s Dream 4pts WIN @ 8/1 Paddy Power This is a big bet for me tomorrow. I think he has an excellent chance if putting in a good round of jumping. His last few runs over fences have not been too inspiring but last time out he looked to be travelling really well near the front before making a terrible mistake and coming down 4 fences out bringing down Tanks for That in the process. I fully believe they have been running this horse over the wrong trip and his best form has come around 2miles. Dave’s Dream form figures around 2miles is 1-1-1-1-6-1-1-U with only the last 3 of these runs coming over fences. Today he gets s 2miles around Sandown which should suit him perfectly. He proved this by romping home by 7 lengths over CD in the Imperial Cup back in 2009. He hasn’t fulfilled his potential over fences but he has only had 3 runs over this trip. First time out over fences at Huntingdon he won a novice chase over 17f and he won a 2m handicap chase at Cheltenham by 8 lengths very easily. Last time out was the first time in his career that he has come down and I don’t expect him to make the same error in this race. I don’t think he would want it too soft but he has shown in the past that he can handle soft conditions. I feel he is a better horse on good ground though. Nicky Henderson is still banging in the winners left right and centre and David Bass takes a handy 3lbs off his back which will help as he does have plenty of weight to carry. That being said horses carrying 11-6+ have won 4 of the last 6 renewals of this race. It also favours horses aged 8+ with only the majestic Master Minded breaking this trend by winning it at 5. Dave’s Dream seems to fit the bit on every account and I am hoping for a massive run. There are obvious dangers in this race with the bottom weight All For Free being one of the biggest. He is improving at a rate of knots but will find this much tougher than his last 2 races that he has won very comfortably. He has been made favourite for the race but I think he might just struggle in this field. Venetia Williams has a bit of form but her horses are still a little in and out for me so I couldn’t be having her runner here Rileyev. Hold Fast has to be respected coming from very powerful connections but the biggest threat may well come from my selections stable mate. Tanks for That got brought down by my selection last time out and was travelling just as well at the time. He won 2 outings ago so is in good form and Barry Geraghty takes the ride which is always a plus. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Nicky Henderson had the first 2 in this but I really think Dave’s Dream has an excellent chance over a CD which will suit him down to the ground. He hasn’t won many times in recent years but I am hoping everything is in place for a big run tomorrow.