Flat Racing: Fri 6th Jan

[RussP]

7.15 Wolverhampton 13 runners line up for this Class 6 handicap over 1m1f. Competitive heat with, as it stands, 12 of the 13 trading at 14/1 or less, the fav being the Williams trained Postscript. Certainly has a chance off its current mark but is no 4/1 shot in my book on what's it's achieved so far. Therefore, I'm going for another that hasn't yet showed its hand but is priced accordingly. Galloping Minister (14/1 Bet365 BOG) - Hails from a shrewd yard and is ridden by top jockey with a 4/12 strike rate over the last 5 years. This horse is still lightly raced, having just 6 career starts. Was clearly thought well of at home, having started life in the Wood Ditton. Outclassed in that but then ran in 3 maidens over inadequate sprint trips, looking each time as if a stiffer test of stamina was required. Entered handicaps off a mark of 60, here stepped up to 7f and ran pretty well to finish 4th of 10, behind 3 in form rivals. That was a good performance and I still thought the horse needed a bit further, well that's granted here with another quarter of a mile to run. As well as the extra distance, a 4lb lower mark is yet another positive. Has had only 1 run in between that & now but easy to ignore its no show on the beach at Southwell. This looks a pretty weak race and I think that this horse has shown enough form in maidens but, even more so when first time up in a handicap to suggest it will go well here. The step up in trip will suit (breeding suggests so too) as will the drop in mark. Trainers only runner and looks overpriced at 14's. Should go very well.

[Dtrains]

Re: Flat Racing: Fri 6th Jan Completely agree with your post there Russ by the way, looks a tricky race so personally would rather eat my own arm than back the fav at 4-1 form is dodgy and i think it's the owner, trainer, jockey that forces the price down rather than horses ability. Another interesting point in this type of race that i often struggle to get my head round is whether to go with proven form and course records of Justcallmehandsome and Join up etc, or go for un-exposed horses like excuse me, galloping minister. Obviously in the end it all comes down to price but still find it fascinating the way bookmakers price up this sort of race. Anyway just thought i'd get other people views as ive been on this race for 2 hours now and can't find a bet but it's really engaging me, will update tomoz maybe when other firms have priced up think 365 are being a tad defensive with there prices atm