Jump Racing - Saturday, 31st December

[Lars]

Can't see a thread :unsure TAFIKA (14:20) will have certainly come on for his seasonal reappearance last time at Bangor 12 days ago and as long as the ground doesn’t deteriorate too much he should post a bold effort and his current odds of 9/1 is a cracking piece of value. He’s a big horse and made giant strides when switched to the bigger obstacles, putting in some decent performances in the early part of 2011, getting off the mark in decent style in a maiden chase at Leicester on good ground over three miles. That wasn’t a bad race for the grade so his current mark of 113 looks favourable when compared with that performance. He’s had two efforts since, a fair effort here at Warwick where he jumped well in-front for the most part, but got tired in the horrible ground and weakened fairly quickly after the final fence. There may have been an issue too with his wind, as he had a breathing operation over the summer. Although the way in which he weakened on seasonal reappearance could to some indicate those (possible) breathing problems had resurfaced, I really do feel that he just needed the effort, and should have come on a fair bit for that. His jumping throughout was eye-catching, especially in fairly bad ground at Bangor and he looks to be a chaser with a fair bit of potential to be better than a 113 rated horse when facing a bit better ground. The Paul Webber trained 7yo is a cracking jumper of a fence and seemingly can travel on most types of ground. The likely good to soft/soft ground shouldn’t inconvenience too much and will suit much better than the bogs he faced on his last two starts. Tafika was mentioned positively in some gallop reports earlier in the week too which is a nice thing, although not to be taken too seriously. He’s got the scope to be a horse rated in the 120’s at this trip and will be winning this season, I’m sure. This is a fair contest today, as a few are also open to improvement with the Evan Williams handicap debutante That’s Ben may well be the biggest danger. Even so, Tafika is a big price at 9/1 as I feel he should be around the 5/1 mark and as long as a deluge of rain doesn’t hit Warwick overnight (not forecast), then he’s definitely worthy of a medium sized investment. 14:20 Warwick – Tafika; 3pts @ 9/1 Paddy Power (bog)

[cpo]

Re: Jump Racing; Saturday 31st December 12.20 Newbury Night Alliance 3pts win @ 7/2 Bet365 I'll take these in order of race time obviously starting with the first on the card. This horse looks to have a massive chance here racing just 4lbs higher than when winning last time out. That win at Cheltenham was his debut over fences and although he made a few mistakes he battled on well to beat an in form opponent. The horse he beat into 2nd was That'lldoboy who was chasing the hat-trick and the horse that finished 3rd was going to go very close next time up if he had stayed upright. So the form looks strong and it entitles him to go close in this race. I think the fact it was his debut over fences makes the win even more impressive and you would think there would be improvement to come. He did however make a few errors and D.Jacob has been booked for the ride today who is a jockey with an abundance of experience. If anything this will help the horse. I don't think this race looks particularly competitive and the main dangers look to be Ben's Folly, Red Rouble and possibly Ring Bo Ree at a bigger price. I do however think this is a good chance for this horse to follow up so having a decent win bet on the horse.

[cpo]

Re: Jump Racing; Saturday 31st December 2.05 Newbury Walkon 3pts win @ 2/1 Bet365 Was so impressed with this horse on his debut over fences when bolting up at Exeter against 2 very good rivals. That day he beat Notus De La Tour who was chasing a hat-trick and who also went on to just go down by 2 lengths to Blackstairmountain in grade 1 company over in Ireland. He also had Zaynar well beat who won next time up in grade 2 company by 9 lengths. The form is strong but he will probably have to improve given the calibre of his rivals today. Cue Card is obviously top draw but still has to prove himself over fences. For Non Stop pushed Al Ferof close last time out and the pair pulled well clear of the remainder. Both of these look big dangers to my selection. What swayed me towards Walkon was the way he jumped on debut. He didn't miss a fence and he jumped every fence quickly and economically. Sometimes when horses make mistakes it can knock their confidence and slow them down which is why I fancy Walkon to out-jump his rivals here. To go with his excellent jumping, he also has an engine as he showed in his hurdle days. He finished 2nd in the Triumph and won in grade 1 company at Aintree. He looks an exciting prospect over fences for Alan King.

[cpo]

Re: Jump Racing; Saturday 31st December 3.40 Newbury Olofi 4pts win @ 5/1 Bet365 Backed this horse last time out where he finished a good 2nd in the Greatwood hurdle at Cheltenham. That day he was very well backed so connections knew they had a well handicapped horse on their hands. I personally thought he would have got much closer to Brampour had he not met trouble in running. Today he races off a 6lb higher mark which shouldn't be beyond him here given what Brampour is now rated. Olofi did miss the Ladbroke due to a bad scope but the trainer belives all is well now and that there could be improvement to come from him. He is still very lightly raced and gets in this race on a nice weight due to the inclusion of Celestial Halo. The ground at Newbury won't be a problem as Olofi as won on soft ground in the past. There are plenty of dangers in the race with the most likely threat coming from recent winner Lifestyle. He absolutely hosed up a few days ago and looks a massive threat to my selection. He will however find this much tougher than his last race and I fancy Olofi to just get the better of him. Celestial Halo has to give plenty of weight away which I think will catch him out. Dunraven Storm has plenty to prove after a couple of very disappointing efforts. Ubi Ace will find this a lot tougher off his new mark and in a better race. Ruler of All and Tenor Nivernais could go well at big prices but I am hoping Olofi can see them all off and build on a great performance last time out.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jump Racing; Saturday 31st December 2.35 Newbury - 4pts win Quotica De Poyans @ 11/4 (Hills) I think this price is quite sweet for a horse who looked sure to be a winner last time out before making an almighty hash of the last, and losing all momentum up the run-in. He was basically a winner going up 4lbs in this field, and should have come on for that first run in eight months. It wasn't a bad race and this doesn't look significantly tougher. A prolific hunter chaser, the horse was picked up for a tidy £75,000 by Alan King - and his horses are going okay at the minute. Rey Nacarado looks the obvious chief threat but after going so well, Charlie Longsdon's horses have just been under-par the last few days and it might be worth taking him on. My selection would be facing a much stiffer ask at the weights had he not faultered last time, and I think he's primed to make amends off seemingly a winnable mark.

[andyjkmak]

Re: Jump Racing; Saturday 31st December 12.20 Newbury Present To You is a very big price here, mainly down to being pulled up last two times. First time he was reportedly lame, second time he was making progress from the back when almost cut in half by a horse veering across his path and that effectively put him out, wasn't given a hard race up to that point and may well have contested. Tried over slightly further here and with the riders claim helping him he looks on a decent mark. Barring incident is worth a crack at the price. 2Pts e/w 20/1 Bet365

[andyjkmak]

Re: Jump Racing; Saturday 31st December 12.10 Avenging Ace takes a drop in grade here and really should be able to win at last. Turned over at short odds last twice but up against some poor types here and is a good bet to get his head in front at last. 5 Pts win 2/1 Laddies

[Stevet1859]

Re: Jump Racing; Saturday 31st December 2:35 Newbury: Swansbrook 1pt win 12/1 Victor Chandler Swansbrook looks interesting on his first try at handicap chase company. Hopefully the run at Ascot on the 16th December was a pipe opener for Brendan Powell. Looking at Swansbrook two previous runs at the end of last season, there is good reason to believe there is better to come. At Hereford in February Swansbrook was only beaten a length by Quartz De Thaix who won off 132 next time. Next time Swansbrook ran, he was a ready winner by 34 lengths from Khorun at long odds on. Probably not too much can be taken from that form, however it would seem to indicate that Swansbrook is at least fairly handicaped and may be a little better chaser than hurdler. Brendan Powell is in decent form. 3:40 Newbury: Ruler Of All 1pt win 25/1 Stan James Tim Vaughan has a very good record with horses that transfer to him from other trainers. And with a little improvement on some already decent form Ruler of All could surprise not least his better fancied stablemate. Looking at Ruler For All's form in Ireland, he finished with two wins. Firstly on soft to heavy going when beating Little Green who won next time out and who has run Sailors Warn close, and then Ruler For All beat Organisedconfusion at Goran Park who is mixing chasing and hurdling and is currently rated 145 over the larger obstacles. Not easy to equate that form, however it would indicate that Ruler Of All goes on the prevailing going and is fairly handicapped, particularly with Michael Byrne taking off five. Its reasonable to assume Ruler Of All will be pretty straight to contest this decent prize rather than starting off in a smaller event somewhere mid week.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Jump Racing; Saturday 31st December

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Uttoxeter 12:10
Selection	Avenging Ace
Strength	10/10
Date	31/12/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Skybet @ 3.00
Reasoning	Cost £120,000in April but failed two win in first two starts over hurdles. Beaten into 6th and 2nd but did improve and can do so once more. Those races was on Heavy going for 2m4f. Those are the same conditions today and the experience on the ground can really help a lot for this maiden hurdle race. Trainer Donald McCain has a 26% strike rate with Maiden Hurdlers this season; 10 wins from38. Jockey Jason Maguire is booked and he's ridden 8 wisn from 27 (30%) Maiden Hurdlers this seasons. I do not have the data with them as a combo in such a race.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Jump Racing; Saturday 31st December

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Warwick 12:35
Selection	Lombardy Boy (To Be Placed)
Strength	10/10
Date	31/12/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 3.00
Reasoning	Unexposed and makes his first run of the season. Improved in his first year chasing last season when 11th, 10th, 2nd. The latest run was at Towcester which is a very stiff test with the final 6f being steeply uphill. He finished well after making mistakes and outpaced 3 out. Jockey Alex Merriam was on board for the first time that day and again booked here today. Merriam has a very good record at the track with 6 wins from 22. Should go well once more and decent price to be placed.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Jump Racing; Saturday 31st December

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Newbury 12:55
Selection	Vendor
Strength	10/10
Date	31/12/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Sportingbet @ 1.83
Reasoning	Good hurdler in France and now makes his British debut for trainer Alan King. The selection has agood record from France with a 242 in race he finished. He failed to finish in three of six starts over there. The latest was in a Grade 1 race where he fell at the last fence and was beaten at 4th placed when it happened. That was just last month so he really is in good form. He also raced at 2m2f so he will have something extra for this drop to 2m110y. With the ground over there being testing the conditions today will not be a problem.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Jump Racing; Saturday 31st December

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Wawrick 1:45
Selection	Mush Mir (w/o Great Reason)
Strength	10/10
Date	31/12/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Paddy Power @ 3.25
Reasoning	Trainer Nicky Henderson has sent just 13 to run the chase course here the last 5 seasons but won 31% of the time or 4 runs. He comes into the race with two entries and they are his only runners at the track. The selection is a triple winner over hurdles with his only defeat being his last race in a Class 2 at Ascot last month. He won by 6, 23, and 3 lengths prior to that defeat. Good candidate to make a winning debut over fences.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Jump Racing; Saturday 31st December

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Warwick 1:45
Selection	Great Reason
Strength	10/10
Date	31/12/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Ladbrokes @ 2.88
Reasoning	Trainer Nicky Henderson has sent just 13 to run the chase course here the last 5 seasons but won 31% of the time or 4 runs. He comes into the race with two entries and they are his only runners at the track. The selection was scheduled to be ridden by A P McCoy but the champion jockey is out with an injury but that says a lot about the his chances in this race. He had a good career over hurdles (212) and was only 3 lengths in 2nd before blundering badly 3 out on his chasing bow last time out. That took a lot out of him and was only 3rd by 14 lengths when he crossed the line. He raced well against the more experienced Hidden Keel and Fredo who were rated 129 and 133 for the race. The one to beat in this race.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jump Racing; Saturday 31st December Newbury 16:35 Rey Nacarado 2pt EW - 5/2 gen Chased the Welsh National 2nd at Fontwell lto and just failed. Easier opposition here and market rival will have top weight to carry. The selection stays really well and the soft lto didn't really suit, because he's one of those stayers that actually like better ground. Andrew Tinkler gets good tune out of him and I'm hoping he can go one better today. Play the place on Betfair to be sure of 3 places. You'll get pretty much the same price.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jump Racing; Saturday 31st December Punchestown 12.25 Soll 1pt win - 4/1 BetFred Bolted up on sole start over hurdles and has moved to Willie Mullins. Will love the conditions and is a point winner, so chasing is his game. Bred to relish this trip and apparently trainer likes him a lot, so this could be a good race to start him off. Just shame Ruby is not on, because he could have been a big bet with him on board.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Jump Racing; Saturday 31st December

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Newbury 2:05
Selection	Minella Class (w/o Walk On)
Strength	10/10
Date	31/12/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Paddy Power @ 3.50
Reasoning	Ran into Peddlers Cross on his chasing bow last time out; In touch, headway to chase winner 5th, pressed winner from 7th until ridden and outpaced 2 out, no impression last, not disgrace. Might find Walk On tood good this time around to a bet without the favorite at 5-2 still has some value. The selection is trained by Nicky Henderson whose record in this race the last three years are for 5th, 3rd, 3rd. With Nicholls' entry not running it only makes it better for Henderson. Nicholls had won this race the last two years. The selection has plenty of potential as a chaser. He was a Grade 1 winner over hurdles by taking the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown in January. He won that race in his second start last season and interesting to see how much he improveds here.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jump Racing; Saturday 31st December Warwick 2.20 Causing Chaos 1.5pt EW - 10/1 gen Bread to make a chaser and this trip should suit. Was getting outpaced over shorter over hurdles, but this might be the test he needs. Trainer doing a lot better and plenty are running well after a slow start to the season.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Jump Racing; Saturday 31st December

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Punchestown 2:40
Selection	Pozyc
Strength	5/10
Date	31/12/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Boylesports @ 7.00
Reasoning	Trainer W P Mullins won this race two years ago (no entry last year). The selection is in great form with two wins and three seconds from the last seven starts; 1P21022. His lifetime form over hurdles has 9 runs, 2 first and 3 seconds. Jockey Ruby Walsh is booked to ride today and he has a 2nd, 6th, 1st on the selection. The selection was second in a Handicap Hurdle two runs ago at Leopardstown. He improved last time out with another second this time in a Grade C Handicap Hurdle. He was beaten by stablemate and Walsh ridden Sweet My Lord. With Walsh back on board they can make it two wins in a row as a combo.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Jump Racing; Saturday 31st December

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Warwick 2:50
Selection	The Boss
Strength	10/10
Date	31/12/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Paddy Power @ 4.50
Reasoning	Goes well here with a 3rd of 17 and 1st of 11. Ran well last time out when 2nd at Newbury to Back Bob Back. He's had a good year and has a great chance to top it off with a win on his favorite track. 2011 for so far is 43P102. Jockey Nick Scholfield was on board all runs and been on for all his runs over hurdles with no change today. His win here was not easy but showed toughness to take the race by a 1/2 length to Equity Release; With leader, left in lead 3rd until 4th, mistake 5th, stayed upsides leader until ridden to lead 8th until before 2 out, driven to lead again last, held on gamely under pressure flat, all out.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Jump Racing; Saturday 31st December

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Newbury 3:05
Selection	Top Of The Range
Strength	5/10
Date	31/12/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 5.50
Reasoning	2 from 2 lifeteme. Won bumer then maiden hurdle and now goes into a Novices' Hurdle. This is a Grade 1 race but coming from Nicky Henderson he can be trusted to be competitive. Henderson last entered the race in 2009 with Finians Rainbow who finished the beaten favorite in 3rd. FR came into the race with two starts, two wins, bumper then maiden hurdle. Henderson goes with the same tactic here. The Walters Plant Hire Ltd owned runner cost £48,000 as a foal and £51,000 yearling. This type of race is certainly something they plan on winning and Henderson wins big races for them.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Jump Racing; Saturday 31st December

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Warwick 3:20
Selection	Legendary Hop
Strength	5/10
Date	31/12/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Betfred @ 9.00
Reasoning	Career is progressing well after three starts. Made debut in a bumper at Cheltenham back in April for 13th of 17. Not raced until last month for his hurdling debut. Finished 5th of 11 for the 2m trip at Towcester. He was sent to the same track 17 days later but this time for for 3m. It was his best effort yet when 2nd to Paul Nicholls' Harry The Viking. He was beaten 5 lengths but I think the trip was too far and the trainer probably thinks so too as he is dropped to 2m5f. LTO, he was down just 1 length when jumped left and made a mistake at 2 out. He also made a mistake at the final fence. Harry The Viking was the 2-11 favorite and the selection ran well against a tough nut to crack.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Jump Racing; Saturday 31st December

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Punchestown 3:40
Selection	Ballyadam Gale
Strength	5/10
Date	31/12/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Victor Chandler @ 7.50
Reasoning	Interestin debutant from trainer Terence O'Brien. He sent a bumper winner four days ago beating the second horse by 10 lengths. Miss K Walsh was on board that runner and she is booked for today. That entry had more experience but the selection looks capable of making a winning debut based on her pedgiree. She is sister to bumper/high-class 2m-2m5f hurdle/chase winner First Lieutenant; dam dual bumper winner.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Jump Racing; Saturday 31st December

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Newbury 3:40
Selection	Celestial Halo (Each-way)
Strength	3/10
Date	31/12/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Skybet @ 15.00
Reasoning	Concedes weight all around but a Top-Class horse in a Handicap race. Trainer Paull Nicholls had him win a Grade 2 at Wincanton two runs ago by making all the running. The favorite in the race was Grandouet who was travelling strongly at the heels of the selection fell 2 out. The selection ended up winning by 16 lengths at least a clear second for the selection if the favorite finished the race. He was only 3rd of 5 last time out by 21 lengths the front two was Overturn and Binocular. Worth a gamble at the price especially with Nicholls record at the track this last 5 seasons.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Jump Racing - Saturday, 31st December

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Tramore 3:55
Selection	Roebuck (Each-way)
Strength	3/10
Date	31/12/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Skybet @ 15.00
Reasoning	Was closing from 2 out on debut in at Point To Point for 3rd of 10 by 1 length in February. The ground there was Yielding to Soft. He was not as good in the next three starts but the ground was not the same with them being Good, Good to Yielding, and Good to Yielding. With the going being Soft today he has a good chance of making a good start under rules. Trainer Henry De Bromhead has a good record at the track and a trainer who can get them ready.