Jump Racing - Saturday, 31st December

[Lars]

Can't see a thread :unsure TAFIKA (14:20) will have certainly come on for his seasonal reappearance last time at Bangor 12 days ago and as long as the ground doesn’t deteriorate too much he should post a bold effort and his current odds of 9/1 is a cracking piece of value. He’s a big horse and made giant strides when switched to the bigger obstacles, putting in some decent performances in the early part of 2011, getting off the mark in decent style in a maiden chase at Leicester on good ground over three miles. That wasn’t a bad race for the grade so his current mark of 113 looks favourable when compared with that performance. He’s had two efforts since, a fair effort here at Warwick where he jumped well in-front for the most part, but got tired in the horrible ground and weakened fairly quickly after the final fence. There may have been an issue too with his wind, as he had a breathing operation over the summer. Although the way in which he weakened on seasonal reappearance could to some indicate those (possible) breathing problems had resurfaced, I really do feel that he just needed the effort, and should have come on a fair bit for that. His jumping throughout was eye-catching, especially in fairly bad ground at Bangor and he looks to be a chaser with a fair bit of potential to be better than a 113 rated horse when facing a bit better ground. The Paul Webber trained 7yo is a cracking jumper of a fence and seemingly can travel on most types of ground. The likely good to soft/soft ground shouldn’t inconvenience too much and will suit much better than the bogs he faced on his last two starts. Tafika was mentioned positively in some gallop reports earlier in the week too which is a nice thing, although not to be taken too seriously. He’s got the scope to be a horse rated in the 120’s at this trip and will be winning this season, I’m sure. This is a fair contest today, as a few are also open to improvement with the Evan Williams handicap debutante That’s Ben may well be the biggest danger. Even so, Tafika is a big price at 9/1 as I feel he should be around the 5/1 mark and as long as a deluge of rain doesn’t hit Warwick overnight (not forecast), then he’s definitely worthy of a medium sized investment. 14:20 Warwick – Tafika; 3pts @ 9/1 Paddy Power (bog)

[cpo]

Re: Jump Racing; Saturday 31st December 12.20 Newbury Night Alliance 3pts win @ 7/2 Bet365 I'll take these in order of race time obviously starting with the first on the card. This horse looks to have a massive chance here racing just 4lbs higher than when winning last time out. That win at Cheltenham was his debut over fences and although he made a few mistakes he battled on well to beat an in form opponent. The horse he beat into 2nd was That'lldoboy who was chasing the hat-trick and the horse that finished 3rd was going to go very close next time up if he had stayed upright. So the form looks strong and it entitles him to go close in this race. I think the fact it was his debut over fences makes the win even more impressive and you would think there would be improvement to come. He did however make a few errors and D.Jacob has been booked for the ride today who is a jockey with an abundance of experience. If anything this will help the horse. I don't think this race looks particularly competitive and the main dangers look to be Ben's Folly, Red Rouble and possibly Ring Bo Ree at a bigger price. I do however think this is a good chance for this horse to follow up so having a decent win bet on the horse.