Home Win or Draw

[Wise Guy]

Just for fun I have decided to paper test a betting strategy. Starting bank 200 units. 10 units per stake. I will be Laying the away team in each game I select. I will run it for 100 games or till I go broke to see if there if a profit at the end. I will be be focussing on games that are too close to call a result that therefore have a fairly even distribution of odds between Home/Draw/Away win for example 2.50/3.30/2.80 In most English leagues to away win occurs 30%-33% of the time. However, title contenders tend to have good away form so by not opposing them away from home I am hoping to only to lose approx 20% of the time. First selections to follow. Any thoughts on the ideas profitability are welcomed. :ok

[froment]

Re: Home Win or Draw

Any thoughts on the ideas profitability are welcomed. :ok

I'd say you'd better lay away team at betfair, as difference is enormous, up to 50 % in matches where home team is strong favourite. Example: Tranmere vs. Bury this evening, which falls in similar odds range you target. Tranmere is priced 2.38 at bet365, and draw is 3.25. If you want to risk 100 units, you need to stake 57.73 units on home win and 42.27 units on draw, for profit of 37.38 units. (Although you could simply take double chance at similar odds). Bury is available to lay at 3.15 at betfair. With 100 units, you can afford stake of 46.51, so if you're at 5% commission, that's profit of 44.18 units, or some 18% higher than on bet365. That may sound small difference for one bet, but is not negligible in long run, it accumulates over time. With lower home odds, this difference becomes higher. If you make similar calculation for Liverpool vs. Newcastle, profit from 100 units is 10.54 vs. 14.84, or 40%. Good luck whatever you choose! :ok