Jump Racing; Thursday 22nd December

[Lars]

MALLUSK (14:40) is a different horse when coming off an absence, his record of 11 on seasonal reappearances showing this to full effect. He’s a big, chasing type who handles testing ground well and Hereford’s soft conditions will be ideal for him. Although both of his victories have been over two miles, he stayed three miles when running in point to points, and has always shaped like he’d stay further than that under rules. His form after his seasonal reappearance victory nosedived, which was likely a combination of running on ground that was a little bit too quick, alongside the fact that he doesn’t really take his racing too well. Today will almost certainly be the best time to catch him, and a mark of 115 looks workable, especially when fresh. He’s only 8lbs higher than when a really taking winner on his seasonal reappearance last year and he’s probably a 125 rated horse first time out. I’d expect him to also improve for the step up in trip, so this mark looks very decent indeed. Kim Bailey remains in good form, and has had success with these “catch first time out” types this season, so I’m expecting a decent performance. The ground drying out would be a slight issue, but 7/1 is much too big regardless, as I have him a clear 4/1 favourite. He’ll be almost certainly trying for his life as connections wouldn’t want to waste his first run of the campaign, and he’s a good bet today. 14:40 Hereford - Mallusk; 3pts @ 7/1 Bet365, Boylesports, Ladbrokes (bog)

[cpo]

Re: Jump Racing; Thursday 22nd December 1.20 Sedgefield Samson Collonges 1.5pts e/w 8/1 Ladbrokes Ferdy Murphy is a trainer I can never catch right but this horse looks very interesting near the bottom of the handicap here. He has been given a lowly rating of 69 for his first start under rules in a race full of inconsistent types. Add to that the fact they have booked the talented 7lb claimer Lucy Alexander to ride the horse, then this horse has hardly any weight to carry compared to his rivals. He could potentially be thrown in here. The main dangers here look to be the likes of Riskier and Sambelucky. Of these 2 I would say Riskier probably holds the strongest claims after a couple of solid races in defeat. The trainer is in good form and he does well at the track so that one must be feared. Keith Reveley is another trainer in form and Sambelucky won a similar contest last time out at Catterick and holds strong claims as well. Interestingly Ferdy Murphy has a couple of runners in this race and his usual rider Tony Kelly rides his other mount Emperor Charlie. Looking back through his form, he wouldn't appear to have much of a chance here, although step back in trip may help. On riding arrangements you could say that this one is probably the first string of the two but I am happy to go with Samson Collonges. He is definitely one of the more interesting horses in the race.

[radelnblueangel]

Re: Jump Racing; Thursday 22nd December Hereford 2.40 2m6f Mud Monkey OFF a mark of 118 Front Runner Mud Monkey will profit from the easy track and the downhill runin and is down in class with a good weight and TJ O Brien is booked, travelled nicely LTO in a truly run Ch3 and just Fell when good in contention, will force the pace tomorrow and has a big shout. Odds of 17+ are very value. Finished 3 length to 131 unadjusted Midnight appeal in 2nd Finished 3/4 length to Double The Trouble 126 unadjusted in 2nd I think its a great chance to dominate a field on an easy track for this horse under TJ Obrien, so these odds will hopefully steam tomorrow. 1 Unit Win BSP 18 2 Unit Place BSP 5 Hereford 1.10 2m Ch5 Sablazo Raced LTO in a pretty decent Ch5 event in Ludlow with two decent progressing types and simply got outpaced as this was a strong pace and stopped at the 2m2f mark after chasing the leaders pretty well, Won before on Soft Ground a 2m2f in Fontwell and I think this track and lower distance of 2m coupled with the ground should suit much more. I dont see a stand out progressing type in this race so odds of 15 should be value for this horse. Its really a weak Class 5 event, so everything can happen there. 1 Unit Win 15,0 Betfair SP Hereford 2.10 2m4f HH4 Picot De Say I think this horse represents a good value in this weak HH4 contest. It changed the stable but raced LTO a decent 2nd to American Art and what I really like is the form finishing 2nd to Caddie Master an 120+ rated runner with 3 lenghts. Is racing off a mark 110 today and can also win here. Odds of 20 on the exchanges are a bit extreme I think. 1 Points Win 20,0 Betfair SP

[Lars]

Re: Jump Racing; Thursday 22nd December SAMSON COLLONGES (13:20) has his fitness to prove but will almost certainly prove better than his current mark of 69 at some point and I’ll take my chances that today is the day, and with the positive booking of Lucy Alexander, he potentially could be 20lbs better than his current rating. He didn’t show a lot in France but came to the UK with a decent run in a point to point (behind subsequent winner) before having his first run under rules in a Hunter Chase over 3 miles in the spring. He finished 4th that day, staying on well which wouldn’t be an obvious indicator that a drop in trip to 2m4f was required. However, he jumped well throughout and would have almost certainly placed had his rider not tried to find a gap that wasn’t there, pretty much halting any momentum he was building up. Alongside this, he set up the horse poorly at the fences and it wasn’t the greatest advertisement for amateur riders. This positive booking of Lucy Alexander should sort that problem out, as she’s shown plenty of strength in the saddle recently and is excellent value for her 7lb claim. The drop to 2m4f shouldn’t be too much of an issue, as he’s a strong traveller and jumped fairly well last time, especially for a novice. Off a mark of 69, he really should be winning races soon and I’ll take my chance that it’s today, even though Ferdy Murphy could be in a little bit better form. 7/1 is a value price and although there’s a couple of last time out winners here, Samson Collonges gets to run off a featherweight and is good value at 7/1, as he should be around the 5/1 or 9/2 mark. As always with this yard, market support would be encouraging. 13:20 Sedgefield - Samson Collonges; 2pts @ 7/1 Ladbrokes (bog)

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Jump Racing; Thursday 22nd December

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Sedgefield 12:20
Selection	The Weatherman
Strength	10/10
Date	22/12/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 2.20
Reasoning	Jason Maguire have done a good job riding over the hurdle track here the last two sesons; 2 from 5 this year and was 4 from 10 last year; 6 wins from 15 the last two seasons. He has two booked rides over hurdles with this looking to be his best chance to add another victory. The selection fell 3 out last time out but would have been clear 2nd behind only the useful Peckamecho who followed up with a second in a Grade 2 Novices' Hurdle at Ascot 6 days ago. The selection is making his second start over hurdles. He placed 2nd on debut and won next time out in his first two career runs (NHF). Maguire was on board the debut effort and today is his first time with the selection since that race.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Jump Racing; Thursday 22nd December

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Hereford 3:40
Selection	Hodgson
Strength	10/10
Date	22/12/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Skybet @ 2.75
Reasoning	Trainer Rebecca Curtis sends out a debutant in this bumper with jockey A P McCoy booked to ride. She has a very good strike rate with McCoy riding her NHF entries. The combo has won 13 of 41 the last 5 seasons, 35%. The are at 36% so far this season with 5 wins out of 14. Curtis at the track this season with NHF runners have 2 wins from 3 runs and 7 wins out of 10 the last 5 seasons so this is the best course to follow her. This is her only entry of the day. The selection is owned by G Costelloe; one of the better owners to follow from Curtis' yard. Curtis for the owner has trained 13 winners from 50 runs, NHF runners are 5 from 22. G Costelloe is 3 from 3 in bumpers here.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jump Racing; Thursday 22nd December 2.40 Hereford - 2pt win Nataani @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes) It's going to be quite tough for Jo Davis' lightly raced gelding to be pitched straight into a competitive handicap on his chasing debut, but he's certainly built for the job, and can go very well if jumping successfully on his first try. Has some point form, including having to pull up when hampered having every chance behind the smart Tricky Trickster. Was 2nd on his next start in that code before registering a 5l success at Tramore back in late 2008. Jo Davis picked him up and he returned to put in a fine reappearance effort to be a 4th in a novice hurdle race after the best part of three years off the track. He ran another good race - finishing in the same position - at Bangor. Beaten little over 6l in a nice race. The winner is an above average 126 rated horse with the scope to improve again, and the 2nd is now rated 130 after only going down by a nose in a tussle with a hotshot at Cheltenham last time. My selection heads chasing off a mark of just 116 after finishing 2nd last time. He isn't blessed with great pace which means a spin over fences may just be what he wants. He kept on that day and was beaten less than 2l so he's been consistent this season. There's no problems with regards to trip it seems and his bumper win came on testing ground so that should be up his street also. There are lots of dangers in here, and he'll have to jump well from the start. But he's been shaping like a chaser, and can go well with his pointing experience. 20/1 is too big either way, and therefore is worth a smallish bet.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jump Racing; Thursday 22nd December Hereford 2.10 Flanagan 0.5pt EW - 25/1 Lads C&D winner on soft ground and despite the awful form lately, yard has had few winners in the past 2 weeks and first time visor is applied, so I wouldn't be surprised if this fella runs better today. Return to this trip will suit and mark has dropped quite a bit, so I'd give him a chance to return to form at the price.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Jump Racing; Thursday 22nd December 15:40 Hereford It always catches my eye when the champion teams up with Miss Rebecca Curtis, especially in this spehere. This appeals even more so today considering he is staying after the second race until the last race here at Hereford just for this ride which does suggest to me he will fancy his chances on this one. Hodgson makes his debut today and he is a son of Oscar Grey who is a close relation of Chicago Grey so he certainly has some useful relations. 2pt win Hodgson @ 7/4 (Bet365 - BOG)