Jump Racing; Monday 19th December

[Lars]

Paul Henderson only has a small string and perhaps the fact that he only runs one horse today isn’t significant at all, but I do feel that OSCAR CHARLIE (15:00) has the ability to be better than a 62 rated chaser and although his fitness will have to be taken on trust, I feel he could run a much better race than his odds suggest. He was a fairly useful pointer, placing on five occasions from six starts (the majority of those runs coming on slow ground) but hasn’t really lived up to the potential when transferring to rules when trained by Jamie Snowden. That being said, he was backed into favouritism in a three-runner race on chase debut, so obviously connections had seen something at home. Circumstances transpired against him (got loose in the preliminaries) and although showed some promise, deserved to finish last of the three. A common factor of the majority of his starts was that he was being tried on quicker ground. I really don’t think it suits one bit, and for a horse who showed all his best form when running on slow ground in points, then it seemed bizarre that previous connections kept persevering with quick ground. It is now interesting that with the switch to Paul Henderson, a very capable trainer indeed, that they immediately try running him on slow ground which should definitely suit. Now rated a meagre 62 and racing from 5lbs out of the handicap, he looks to have a fair bit to do in this contest. However, it isn’t a great one by any stretch of the imagination and it wouldn’t be unlike Paul Henderson to gather some significant improvement from this horse. He’s shown glimpses in the past that he could be a fair bit better than his current rating, has the assistance of a very capable 3lb claimer who has a fair record when riding for the yard (3/19) and does seem to be a decent jumper, half the battle at this level. The drop in trip should help too as he was a little keen over longer distances and a fair gallop is expected today. At odds of 28/1, he’s worth an investment. Bets 15:00 Plumpton Oscar Charlie; 1.5pts @ 28/1 Victor Chandler (bog)

[ipitydafool]

Re: Jump Racing; Monday 19th December Strange Encounter - Navan 2.25 3rd time out this season for Phillip Fenton's 7 year old. Done well on reappearance in competitive handicap at Down Royal before fading and finishing 4th. Was out again just over a week later in Limerick where he unfortunately slipped up in the bend after only the 2nd hurdle. Has been given a month off so hopefully should have no ill effects from that. Has form on the ground having previously won on heavy so should relish conditions. Main competition comes from the current favourite and top weight Western Bound, a Gordon Elliott trained horse that is going for a 3 timer on his seasonal reappearance. Strange Encounter is getting 10lbs of him and I have doubts of whether Western Bound will go well fresh or like the ground as much as Strange Encounter. I also dont think Elliotts horses have been firing as well in last two weeks so I think Strange Encounter should go close. 1pt win @ 5-1 Boylesports

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jump Racing; Monday 19th December Plumpton 2.00 Jordan 0.5pt EW - 14/1 PP VC Lightly raced for his age and might improve over fences. Good claimer on board offsetting 5lbs and the ground and trip should suit. Not a particularly strong race for its grade and he could run better than price suggests if tuned up on seasonal reappearance.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Jump Racing; Monday 19th December Near The Water 2.00 Plumpton. 1 point win. Needs to prove he stays this far, but does go in heavy ground (many don't) and so if brilliant young jockey Brendan Powell can sit tight at a very sensible pace, he should be fighting out the finish. The handicapper givs him chances if he does stay, and I think he will. 7/1 Victor Chandler (bog)

[Lars]

Re: Jump Racing; Monday 19th December The perils of win only betting :lol