Mr.Wilson Thread

[Mr.Wilson]

Morning PL, Just browsing the cards today on the flat, one general rule I like to use in selecting the races I'm going to attempt to find a bet in. is to sort the field by their draw and make sure at least one of the first three are prominant types, are currently in form and have achieved a ts & rpr within 7lbs of eachother in their recent runs. It's pretty logical, if you're dealing with speed you want the best opportunity of a true run race and if you know what a pacemaker can achieve in numeric terms its a good standard to base your field on, those who can beat it and those who can't. I would beware of a suicidal pace, if you can visualize them being strung out like washing you'd probably want to side with a horse who can get further and visa verse- how can we predict this? you can't, but assuming there are 3 ore more strong pacehorses in good draws it increases the possibility. Anyway enough of the rambling! My Standards for Dundalk are exceptional, I have full confidence in the reliability & validity of the time, quite often the par ratings are within the 97-104 region which is what I like to see. 20:30 Dundalk We look to have a betting race, both General Building (1) & Solo Whisperer (2) have produced around a finishing time of 63 on average in recent efforts highlighting how they capitulate quite early on and may need a drop back to a mile. Who I'm looking at is Imprudent Miss (86) and Fleeting Moment (87) who are coming off a good time behind Captain Henry, I do believe Imprudent Miss is up 3lbs which costs her about 2 lengths over this trip but off 57 and a first run for about a year she's entitled to come on with the talented James on board. There is one, Cailin Coillteach who recored (84) behind Liberty Rock over a mile beaten just 4l after a year off the track - she was stepped up to this distance last time out and was again once paced at the finish recording (64). Looks like this 3yo filly has had a serious injury but I wouldn't write her off in this sort of grade, I do believe she may be the bet. Tough choice on who to go for, all three are handicapped to win here. (EDIT: Fleeting Moment W/D) 4pt win > Cailin Coillteach @ 8/1 Ladbrokes (11:53am) 6pt win > Imprudent Miss @ 6/1 Ladbrokes (11:53am) Bank £4900 _____________ PARK SPARKLES AT LINGFIELD KAMES PARK (91) a 6/1 winner of the last on Wednesday's card at Lingfield may have been just another winner but the 9-year old son of Desert Sun has recorded a very positive time which has to be highlighted. He has been turned out quickly today at Wolverhampton by Richard Guest who could quite possibly have a lovely little run out of this horse now who has run 8.69l quicker than his par equating to 13lbs over the 12f which puts him in the running for notching up a hattrick in the near future. 10PT WIN > KAMES PARK @ 3.4 (14:31PM) (Bank £4800) _____________ DUNDALK 2YOS SHOW PROMISE NERO EMPEROR (87) A son of Holy Roman Emperor whose influence on the polytrack is eyecatching, looks to have produce another fair sort who could go some way in landing a decent racing next season. Tommy Stack's 2 year old spread eagled the field with a 5.75l wining victory during the middle of November, it was an impressive performance from a horse related to the likes of high class performers on the clock Swiss Lake, Dubai Princess & Hajoum. The races will be limited now but the race should be worth a few quid in backing some of the runners in behind next time out. SLADE POWER (85) A son of Dutch Art went off 11/10F last time out at Dundalk and prevailed with a 1.5L winning margin over 76 rated Harry Potter. This was his first run since May when he was a 4l 2nd to Reply at the Curragh, he won in comfortable style at Dundalk and looks to have scope for 7 Furlongs to a Mile but what was interesting is Angels Pursuit whose race followed Slade Power's was run in a time of (87) which stamps the talent of Slade Power. The race may work out well in behind too. _____________ LIBYS DREAM WILL COMPLETE HATTRICK LIBYS DREAM (91) A 3 year old daught of Invincible Spirit notched up a fine win at Wolverhampton on Saturday for Trainer Tom Dascombe, running 6.46l quicker than her par this equates to around 17lbs at 7 Furlongs putting her on course for a mark near the 90 region which is realistic given her Speed Rating of 91 - something a 85-90 rated horse should be performing at. The form of the runners up should pay well in the future.

[Cowan]

Re: Mr.Wilson Thread Mr.Wilson, I'm looking forward to this thread. I read your thoughts on speed ratings in that discussion thread and good to see your putting your thoughts into practice. I'm a speed ratings sceptic in a way. I used to compile my own and had success but it was too much work in the end. I then used freely available speed ratings and couldn't find a reliable way to make them pay.

one general rule I like to use in selecting the races I'm going to attempt to find a bet in. is to sort the field by their draw and make sure at least one of the first three are prominant types, are currently in form and have achieved a ts & rpr within 7lbs of eachother in their recent runs.

I am a pace fanatic and I also order the card by the draw. The part about finding an assured pace setter on the inside strikes me as a very good idea. An idea I work with is the shape of the race as regards early-pace finishing-speed as outlined by Professor William Quirin (American 'handicapper' of the 1980s). I won't list all the combinations; eg. Fast-Average: A fast pace is set from the off. The race is eventually won in an average time. This will most be a good performance if won by a frontrunner, and an average performance if won from behind. Average-Average: A completely typical race that does not favour any particular running style. Slow-Average: Usually won by an average frontrunning performance. Therefore, I think your idea of ensuring a good pace will eliminate those slow starting races, the type of races that frontrunners do best at. Would it be fair to say that from the races you play - the winners are mostly coming from behind? I wonder if you can help me. I look for the most likely leader in a race, a horse who races at the front in almost all his races. This animal is key in setting the pace as I've explained, but I struggle to rate how fast he is likely to go - any tips in regards to this? Good Luck with this :hope