Jump Racing; Friday 16th December

[Lars]

13:20 Ascot ALL FOR FREE has been backed overnight which is a shame as the early prices would have been fantastic but the current odds are still not to be laughed at and I think he’s definitely value against the short-priced favourite. A winner over hurdles, he’d been out of form for most of 2011 after picking up a novice hurdle victory over this trip at Fakenham on heavy ground, and that was probably due to the original mark of 122 allotted too him for handicaps, which just seemed a big ask for him. Connections realised that he wasn’t quite up to that level over timber and gave him his chance over fences. He only showed moderate promise in his first two starts before running a really nice race in a tough contest at Hereford when last seen. He jumped extremely well up until the final couple of fences but that’s excusable when he had to chase the likes of Kumbeshwar, and to his credit, he kept up with the leaders for longer than the formbook was expected to. He’s now switched to handicaps and this current mark of 110 looks very appealing. He probably ran about 8-10lbs better than that on his last start, so he immediately looks well-in I feel. He’s a winner on both heavy ground and fast ground, so conditions won’t be a problem whatever the weather does. Martin Keighley’s horses are running well generally and this horse is a more than valid alternative to the favourite. Drumlang has won his last two starts over timber in nice fashion, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. He looks awkward throughout, doesn’t jump too well and connections suggested after his last run they were planning for him to have a break, he’s no 5/4 shot by any means. He’s entitled to win on the figures but I don’t think it’s as clear-cut as the market is suggesting. All For Free is well-handicapped, will enjoy the ground and although only 5/1 now, he’s probably around a 3/1 shot in my book and deserves a medium sized win bet, as he should be bang there at the finish if he jumps anything like his previous effort at Hereford. ALL FOR FREE; 2.5pts @ 5/1 Paddy Power (bog) - 15:05 Ascot The top three in the market in this competitive contest don’t really interest me too much, they come from powerful yards and are potentially well-handicapped but Dancing Dude’s attitude didn’t impress last time, whilst Sir Du Bearn has been off the track a long while and has allegedly had problems. Our Father probably deserves to be the market leader but there’s value further down the field in NON DOM, who’ll relish the forecast rain and I feel the step up in trip to this 2m6f will only be of assistance and I think he has decent claims today. Fair flat performer who stayed 1m4f well, he was progressive in his first season hurdling, especially when encountering testing ground. A winner on his third hurdling start at Leicester over 2 miles on heavy ground, he followed up nicely up in trip at Bangor, again on a soft surface, shaping as though he could stay further. That race hasn’t worked out too well at present but he won it well enough to suggest there was more to come off this sort of rating. After a poor run over two miles on the flat, he was given the summer off and returned in an exceptionally competitive listed handicap at Newbury. 2 miles over hurdles on fairly decent ground was always going to be far too sharp for him at this stage of his career but he didn’t shape too badly, and will have come on a fair bit for that outing. Upped in trip to 2m6f, I feel this mark of 122 is workable now back on what will likely be his ideal ground, as I think he can be a horse rated in the 130’s. There’s plenty of rain about the south of England and I’d expect it’ll be soft ground by post-time, ground that he goes really well on. Although unproven at the trip, he shapes as though he’ll stay it and going right-handed will also help, as he has tended to jump to right on occasions. This is another tough race for him to take part in but there’s still mileage from this rating now up to what could be his ideal trip, coming from a yard whose flat runners are amongst the winners and he again has the assistance of Tom Scudamore in the saddle, who was on board for the second of his hurdles victories. I feel he should be around the 9/1 mark in this contest, so 20/1 is a value price in my book. Not the biggest fan of each-way betting but feel in a race of this nature, it’s worth doing, hopefully the 4 places remain. NON DOM; 1.5pts EW @ 20/1 Boylesports, Paddy Power (bog)

[BKI Punter]

Re: Jump Racing; Friday 16th December 2:30 Ascot Chablais 2pt win - 4.4 (Betfair) Kumbeshwar 1pt win - 4.2 (Betfair) Fascinating novice chase on the card tomorrow and I think Henderson's unbeaten charge, Chablais, should be shorter. The Nicholls' horse is fav, was getting weight from Eradicate lto and won by a nose. Maybe he needed it, but I think the form is a bit dodgy. Frascati Park looks one of those horses that'll struggle in this grade, the same applies to Michael Flips and the former top class hurdler, Zaynar. Chablais was an expensive recruit and is currently unbeaten in three starts including a point to point. In his first race under rules he travelled strongly and seemed to blow up in the straight but still win. Dunno why he was put away for so long, but came back to debut over fences last month and won as he should after the market rival fell. The one thing you'd be worried about is that he jumped left, but you'd assume that's sorted as he remains on a right-handed track, with Henderson stating he'd prefer to go the other way for 'saftey's stake'. For an unbeaten Henderson novice he looks a big price and will apparently relish the step-up in trip. Kumbeshwar represents the Alan King yard, a high-class juvenile hurdler last season, couldn't have made a better start to his chasing career with an easy success at Hereford. He jumped well, responded and went clear when asked and was eased heavily. His main market rival didn't feature, but if re-finding his form from last year he has to be in with a big shout here. The trip is slightly worrying but he hasn't done anything to suggest it'll be a hindrance.