Jump Racing; Friday 16th December

[Lars]

13:20 Ascot ALL FOR FREE has been backed overnight which is a shame as the early prices would have been fantastic but the current odds are still not to be laughed at and I think he’s definitely value against the short-priced favourite. A winner over hurdles, he’d been out of form for most of 2011 after picking up a novice hurdle victory over this trip at Fakenham on heavy ground, and that was probably due to the original mark of 122 allotted too him for handicaps, which just seemed a big ask for him. Connections realised that he wasn’t quite up to that level over timber and gave him his chance over fences. He only showed moderate promise in his first two starts before running a really nice race in a tough contest at Hereford when last seen. He jumped extremely well up until the final couple of fences but that’s excusable when he had to chase the likes of Kumbeshwar, and to his credit, he kept up with the leaders for longer than the formbook was expected to. He’s now switched to handicaps and this current mark of 110 looks very appealing. He probably ran about 8-10lbs better than that on his last start, so he immediately looks well-in I feel. He’s a winner on both heavy ground and fast ground, so conditions won’t be a problem whatever the weather does. Martin Keighley’s horses are running well generally and this horse is a more than valid alternative to the favourite. Drumlang has won his last two starts over timber in nice fashion, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. He looks awkward throughout, doesn’t jump too well and connections suggested after his last run they were planning for him to have a break, he’s no 5/4 shot by any means. He’s entitled to win on the figures but I don’t think it’s as clear-cut as the market is suggesting. All For Free is well-handicapped, will enjoy the ground and although only 5/1 now, he’s probably around a 3/1 shot in my book and deserves a medium sized win bet, as he should be bang there at the finish if he jumps anything like his previous effort at Hereford. ALL FOR FREE; 2.5pts @ 5/1 Paddy Power (bog) - 15:05 Ascot The top three in the market in this competitive contest don’t really interest me too much, they come from powerful yards and are potentially well-handicapped but Dancing Dude’s attitude didn’t impress last time, whilst Sir Du Bearn has been off the track a long while and has allegedly had problems. Our Father probably deserves to be the market leader but there’s value further down the field in NON DOM, who’ll relish the forecast rain and I feel the step up in trip to this 2m6f will only be of assistance and I think he has decent claims today. Fair flat performer who stayed 1m4f well, he was progressive in his first season hurdling, especially when encountering testing ground. A winner on his third hurdling start at Leicester over 2 miles on heavy ground, he followed up nicely up in trip at Bangor, again on a soft surface, shaping as though he could stay further. That race hasn’t worked out too well at present but he won it well enough to suggest there was more to come off this sort of rating. After a poor run over two miles on the flat, he was given the summer off and returned in an exceptionally competitive listed handicap at Newbury. 2 miles over hurdles on fairly decent ground was always going to be far too sharp for him at this stage of his career but he didn’t shape too badly, and will have come on a fair bit for that outing. Upped in trip to 2m6f, I feel this mark of 122 is workable now back on what will likely be his ideal ground, as I think he can be a horse rated in the 130’s. There’s plenty of rain about the south of England and I’d expect it’ll be soft ground by post-time, ground that he goes really well on. Although unproven at the trip, he shapes as though he’ll stay it and going right-handed will also help, as he has tended to jump to right on occasions. This is another tough race for him to take part in but there’s still mileage from this rating now up to what could be his ideal trip, coming from a yard whose flat runners are amongst the winners and he again has the assistance of Tom Scudamore in the saddle, who was on board for the second of his hurdles victories. I feel he should be around the 9/1 mark in this contest, so 20/1 is a value price in my book. Not the biggest fan of each-way betting but feel in a race of this nature, it’s worth doing, hopefully the 4 places remain. NON DOM; 1.5pts EW @ 20/1 Boylesports, Paddy Power (bog)

[BKI Punter]

Re: Jump Racing; Friday 16th December 2:30 Ascot Chablais 2pt win - 4.4 (Betfair) Kumbeshwar 1pt win - 4.2 (Betfair) Fascinating novice chase on the card tomorrow and I think Henderson's unbeaten charge, Chablais, should be shorter. The Nicholls' horse is fav, was getting weight from Eradicate lto and won by a nose. Maybe he needed it, but I think the form is a bit dodgy. Frascati Park looks one of those horses that'll struggle in this grade, the same applies to Michael Flips and the former top class hurdler, Zaynar. Chablais was an expensive recruit and is currently unbeaten in three starts including a point to point. In his first race under rules he travelled strongly and seemed to blow up in the straight but still win. Dunno why he was put away for so long, but came back to debut over fences last month and won as he should after the market rival fell. The one thing you'd be worried about is that he jumped left, but you'd assume that's sorted as he remains on a right-handed track, with Henderson stating he'd prefer to go the other way for 'saftey's stake'. For an unbeaten Henderson novice he looks a big price and will apparently relish the step-up in trip. Kumbeshwar represents the Alan King yard, a high-class juvenile hurdler last season, couldn't have made a better start to his chasing career with an easy success at Hereford. He jumped well, responded and went clear when asked and was eased heavily. His main market rival didn't feature, but if re-finding his form from last year he has to be in with a big shout here. The trip is slightly worrying but he hasn't done anything to suggest it'll be a hindrance.

[Trotter]

Re: Jump Racing; Friday 16th December 2.30 Ascot - Cracking novice chase. Found it difficult to make a confident or even hopeful selection but what struck me was that the fancied ones all appear to be front runners and I wonder if it might get set up for Michael Flips He's not as sexy as the others but staying looks to be his game. He's a CD winner last time out and previous to that finished 2nd to Cue card, outpaced in the finish but stayed on

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Jump Racing; Friday 16th December

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Ascot 1:55
Selection	Molotof
Strength	10/10
Date	16/12/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Stan James @ 3.25
Reasoning	Jockey Barry Geraghty is always good to follow when riding at this track. Over the last 5 seasons he has accumulated 26 wins from 66 rides; 39% strike rate. Hurdle: 13/38 (34%), Chase: 10/22 (45%), NHF: 3/6 (50%). He is scheduled to ride in five races today. The first four runs are for trainer Nicky Henderson who also does well at the track with this season having 4 wins out of 10 runs already. The selection is unebaten in two hurdle runs this season. He won a Class 3 then a Listed contest. He's only raced in the UK four time (2411) with the debut being 2nd in the Grade 2 Adonis at Kempton Park. Ended last season with a dissapointment at Cheltenham when only 14th of 23 in the Triumph Hurdle.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Jump Racing; Friday 16th December

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Ascot 2:30
Selection	Chablais
Strength	10/10
Date	16/12/2011
Bookmaker/Price	William Hill @ 4.00
Reasoning	Jockey Barry Geraghty is always good to follow when riding at this track. Over the last 5 seasons he has accumulated 26 wins from 66 rides; 39% strike rate. Hurdle: 13/38 (34%), Chase: 10/22 (45%), NHF: 3/6 (50%). He is scheduled to ride in five races today. The first four runs are for trainer Nicky Henderson who also does well at the track with this season having 4 wins out of 10 runs already. The selection is a good looking prospect with three career wins from three starts. Won PTP last year, made winning debut over hurdles and chase at Kempton this year. The win over hurdles was in January with the chase debut from just last month. He was purcahased for £260,000 at Cheltenham last April so expect to see big things from his this season.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Jump Racing; Friday 16th December

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Ascot 3:05
Selection	Dancing Dude (Each-way)
Strength	5/10
Date	16/12/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 7.50
Reasoning	Jockey Barry Geraghty is always good to follow when riding at this track. Over the last 5 seasons he has accumulated 26 wins from 66 rides; 39% strike rate. Hurdle: 13/38 (34%), Chase: 10/22 (45%), NHF: 3/6 (50%). He is scheduled to ride in five races today. The first four runs are for trainer Nicky Henderson who also does well at the track with this season having 4 wins out of 10 runs already. The selection is owned by A D Spence whose record this season has 4 wins out of 10 with 4 more able to finish 2nd. That was from four runners so far this season and all four was at least able to be placed. The selection is 2 from 2 over hurdles; both wins from April this year. He was a flat performer for Spence at a price tag of 280,000euros.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Jump Racing; Friday 16th December

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Ascot 12:45
Selection	Hadrian's Approach
Strength	10/10
Date	16/12/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 4.00
Reasoning	Jockey Barry Geraghty is always good to follow when riding at this track. Over the last 5 seasons he has accumulated 26 wins from 66 rides; 39% strike rate. Hurdle: 13/38 (34%), Chase: 10/22 (45%), NHF: 3/6 (50%). He is scheduled to ride in five races today. The first four runs are for trainer Nicky Henderson who also does well at the track with this season having 4 wins out of 10 runs already. The selection is making his hurdling debut. He was a PTP winner and ownebd by Mr & Mrs R Kelvin Hughes who has won 4 of 10 here the last 5 seasons. Henderson mentioned he is an exciting prospect and has a good chance of winning on debut with Geraghty in the saddle.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Jump Racing; Friday 16th December

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Ascot 3:40
Selection	Josh's Dreamway (Each-way)
Strength	5/10
Date	16/12/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 7.50
Reasoning	Jockey Barry Geraghty is always good to follow when riding at this track. Over the last 5 seasons he has accumulated 26 wins from 66 rides; 39% strike rate. Hurdle: 13/38 (34%), Chase: 10/22 (45%), NHF: 3/6 (50%). He is scheduled to ride in five races today. The selection won her first two career bumper runs in April and May. She was tried in a Listed bumper last month and finished 4th of 12 by 4 1/2 lengths at Cheltenham. Ahead of her were tough rivals coming the the partnership of Curtis/McCoy, Vaughan/Johnson, and King/Thornton. Trainer Jeremy Scott is starting to peak with his form and the selection is sure to be fitter than last time out. Scott's last three runners placed and before that he had six unplaced runners the last two weeks.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jump Racing; Friday 16th December Ascot 2.30 Chablais 3pt win - 10/3 VC Pacha Du Polder 1pt win - 10/3 Boyle Going with the Nicky Henderson horse here, who I think could be top class. Jumps well albeit a bit to the left, but that has hopefully been corrected at home. Will save on the Nicholls yardstick, who also comes here with a big reputation and could be anything. 3.05 Our Father 3pt EW - 11/4 gen Unexposed and trainer apparently very keen on him to follow the footsteps of stablemate Dynaste and Grands Crus. This race despite the many runners doesn't have much strength in depth and I think the selection could be too good for them.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jump Racing; Friday 16th December 2.55 Uttoxeter - 1.5pts e/w Master D'or @ 12/1 (Bet365) - 1/5 odds This is a better race on ratings than the one he contested at Plumpton last time, but many of these may fail to run to their mark given they have their wellbeing to prove. My selection showed much more last time over 2m4f, plugging on, and this 3 miles on testing ground will suit better. He's a course winner and is handicapped to strike, just 2lbs higher than that ready success. Went close next time out at Lingfield, but excuses are apparent for his three failures after that, and now returns to Uttoxeter on a nice mark at a nice price. The favourite isn't very fluent and that would concern me, 2 of these have to return from a long absence, and I'd be worried about the wellbeing of the rest other than Run To Fly, but this is another step up in class and he hasn't fully proved himself on very testing ground. I think 12/1 is a very fair price about my selection, who seemingly is getting back towards form, and is proven under the conditions.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jump Racing; Friday 16th December Uttoxeter 12.05 Real Milan 1pt EW - 11/1 BetInternet Quite surprised at this price. Could be backed at 13+ on the exchanges as I write this. Won his last bumper and should make a fine hurdler. Not quite sure why 2nd favourite is that short. Fav could be classy, but certainly the Donald McCain horse shouldn't be that big.

[switzerland]

Re: Jump Racing; Friday 16th December I know the Novice Chase at Ascot is a pretty tight affair but I'm surprised more people haven't gone for Kumbeshwar. I know it was a mickey mouse race he won lto but he jumped really impressively. Has one of the highest flat ratings, stable in form so I thought 3/1 was a decent price.

[bowles10]

Re: Jump Racing; Friday 16th December Ascot today 12.45 Fighting flynn 8/1 Should relish the ground conditions here and has had a run which may just be enough to get past the short Nicky Henderson favourite which hasnt been seen this season yet. Nichols has the NR so hoping Hobbs horse should be thereabouts 2.30 Pacha Du Polder 10/3 Unexposed horse and i like Nicholls horses that are off a low weight as there is normally more to come. Only won a 2 runner race at Sandowen but the 2nd Eradicate has followed up since. 3.05 Lightning Strike 14/1 This is a bold shout but Venetia always seems to have this horse ready for certain races and will love the softer ground. if its fit, could sneak a place or better 0.05pts ew patent = 0.7pts staked

[BKI Punter]

Re: Jump Racing; Friday 16th December 1:55 Ascot Molotof 4pt win - 9/4 (WH) Hazy Tom has been backed into a ridiculous price now, so great value is there on Molotof who shouldn't be bigger than 13/8 imo. Both horses on upward curves, Hazy Tom unbeaten. Although his form was going to be franked at Cheltenham, he beat that horse over two miles which wouldn't have suited him. His form other than that, looks pretty moderate, and the market is formed on the basis that he's even better than it appears. Molotof has finished just behind Zarkandar on UK debut and won two races over hurdles this season after retaining novice status. Had to make the running lto, which didn't suit and flatters the second and third. He isn't well in at the weights, but I'm taking the gamble that Hazy Tom isn't as good as we're being told he is, and that Molotof has the ability to beat the rest comfortably.

[Falbrav]

Re: Jump Racing; Friday 16th December KUMBESHWAR 2.30 Ascot. 1 point win. Needs to step a bit on latest effort, but it impressed me and I think he can improve a bit more to take this. Trip and ground not a concern and seemingly jumps well. Good chance. 7/2 William Hill BOG

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Jump Racing; Friday 16th December Phare Isle 3.05 Ascot. 0.5 points each way. A bit more exposed than most, but pretty consistent and his best form would give him every chance in context with this race. Up in the weights without winning is a little unfair, but his mark still gives him chances and I think he'll run well today. 20/1 Bet365 (bog)

[Sam Preen]

Re: Jump Racing; Friday 16th December Dancing Dude - 3:05 Ascot. Worth a few quid at 8/1. 2 for 2 in novice hurdles but he was a bit of a monkey last time out when jinking, hanging and swishing his tail near the post, but in the form of Nicky and Barry, it's hard to pass up. 8/1 William Hill

[Trotter]

Re: Jump Racing; Friday 16th December Who'd have thought it...........Zaynar !.............:loon Looked like desert orchid bowling along in front........

[switzerland]

Re: Jump Racing; Friday 16th December

Who'd have thought it...........Zaynar !.............:loon Looked like desert orchid bowling along in front........

Trotter, 6 horses ran and if you gave me 6 picks Zaynar would have been the last of them. Having said that its great to see him show some of what his Triumph win promised...but given the ground I'm not sure how good the form will turn out to be.

[Trotter]

Re: Jump Racing; Friday 16th December

Trotter' date=' 6 horses ran and if you gave me 6 picks Zaynar would have been the last of them. Having said that its great to see him show some of what his Triumph win promised...but given the ground I'm not sure how good the form will turn out to be.[/quote'] Yeah, he was the first one I crossed off ! Be interesting to see where he goes from here