Jumps Racing - Tuesday, 13th of December

[Monterosso]

1:50 Catterick - Eighteen Carat - 2pts @ 8/1 (Bet365) This looks to be a fairly decent contest and Eighteen Carat should prove to be a lively contender if he can improve on his most recent outing, which was fairly impressive for a long way. On that occasion, Donald McCain's 7-year-old chaser set a very solid tempo in a race run over an extended 3 miles at Bangor. He jumped very well in the main (got close to a couple) and travelled kindly before they turned for home, but then tired and weakened into a 9-length 4th of 7. I'd say there's every chance that he'll improve for that run, as it was his first for about 6 weeks and he was found to be wrong on that occasion, which was his seasonal/chasing debut. Whether Eighteen Carat will appreciate this extended 3m 1f trip is a bit of a worry, but the sharp Catterick track is going to be right up his street (ran well here over hurdles; he was an atrocious jumper in that code) and I'm hopeful that he'll get the trip around here. He's also taking a drop in class to tackle much weaker opposition, which is another plus. On the downside, he will have to overcome joint top-weight but I'm hoping that it won't be too much of an issue. It's very likely that he'll be able to defy a mark of 116 before too long, it's just a question of what trip he'll need in order to show his best. There is plenty of pace in the race, so Eighteen Carat will have to go off fairly hard in-front if he wants to lead but based on his only win to date, achieved over hurdles when tracking the pace, it doesn't seem as if he must dictate proceedings. Jason Maguire hops up on this fellow for the first time over fences and that's another obvious plus. The yard are in fine form of late and with today's runner being likely to come on for his run last time out, I'm hopeful that they can grab a nice priced winner here. It's obviously a bet full of risk given how things are likely to pan out but this is a horse who should be kept on side for a little while yet and 8/1 looks like value to me. Small/medium win stakes is the play and hopefully he'll go well. Of the rest, Amroth Bay (7/1) is an interesting one but he has halved in price and I've missed the boat. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2:50 Catterick - Storm Surge - 3pts @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes) Storm Surge comes here as a horse who seems very well in himself of late and with a bit of luck, he should run a good race in what looks to be a modest contest. Martin Todhunter's 8-year-old grey will have to defy a mark higher than anything he has ever won off before but that doesn't seem to be an impossible task if recent efforts under the capable Lucy Alexander are anything to go by. I'm also sure that, if racing prominently, he'll love the experience of running around this track from the front (ran a cracking race when held-up over C&D last year) and he could prove to be very hard to peg back depending on if he gets the chance to kick for home and get the opposition on the stretch. On his penultimate outing, Storm Surge ran out a convincing winner off an 8lb lower mark over 2m 1f at Kelso. In the end, he won by 3-lengths having jumped very well (until a mistake at the last) and made the running at a very solid tempo from the fifth fence onwards. I think he deserves extra credit for going off quite hard and keeping up to his work, although the track rewards such tactics quite often, so he may be slightly flattered. Obviously an 8lb rise in the weights isn't going to be the easiest thing to overcome but he looks to have everything to suit here and it's not a great contest. The Kelso race also looks to be quite decent form and although he re-opposes a few of that field on worse terms, I don't believe that they'll turn it around too easily at this track. Storm Surge showed himself to be in good knick on his only run since, which came over 2m 4f at the stiff Newcastle track. I just don't think he was ever going to get home over that trip, at that track, on soft ground and the fact that he ran so well until they turned for home must be taken as a big positive. He didn't seem to have too hard a race once beaten and now effectively takes a step back in class to tackle weaker opposition. My judgement of how good inexperienced jockeys are wouldn't be the best but Lucy Alexander looks very good value for her 7lb claim and she can clearly get a tune out of this fellow. She's 2-6 for the Todhunter yard and they're in fine form of late with 3 winners and a second from their last 10 runners. Todhunter doesn't have a great record at this track but at least the horse should be ideally suited to it and the 9/1 about him looks too big. I could be very wrong, but I think he should be the favourite here. Regardless, medium win stakes will do and hopefully he will go well. He certainly should if he isn't forced to go off too fast, which is a possibility. The horse doesn't have to lead though and that gives him plenty of options, although I wouldn't be keen on his chances if he's held up.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jumps Racing - Tuesday, 13th of December 3.10 Folkestone - 3pts win Promised Wings @ 4/1 (Boyles) Shown much more recently and is proven over the distance and relishes soft ground. Was a bit unlucky when staying on dourly to be 2nd to Not So Sure Dick in October before also finishing in that position next time - going even closer. Last time out, was pitched into a nice race, but a return to a 0-105 contest will suit much more and can get off the mark over hurdles here.