Jump Racing - Saturday 10th

[BKI Punter]

Spinal Research Gold Cup Quel Esprit 1pt EW - 14/1 (Ladbrokes) - NR Great Endeavour 1pt EW - 9/1 (PP) - already posted Great Endeavour 1pt EW - 8/1 (William Hill) Salut Flo 1pt EW - 14/1 (WH) Taking a bit of a risk as both could be NR's, but both are big prices if they turn up. Quel Esprit has been luckless over fences so far, and although I used to think he was very overrated, he looks well handicapped if he takes his chance and will definitely be single figures. Was travelling well in the RSA when falling, then brought down at Punchestown. Won easily on return to action last month, so will be in good shape. Great Endeavour back to a more suitable trip is still a danger of his handicap mark, and I'm hoping he goes close for the sake of my Ryanair bet! Salut Flo has to be worthy of a saver here with how well Pipe is doing in the big races this year. Only had two chase starts in the UK, easily winning his first and then finishing second to Prince Du Beauchene on his second start, pulling miles clear of the third. Has excellent jockey on board and Pipe is a master at getting them ready fto. Wouldn't be surprised to see him have 1-2. 1:20 Cheltenham Astracad 2pt EW - 11/2 (WH) Oiseau de Nuit 1pt EW - 16/1 (Lads) First handicap chase for the Twiston-Davies horse and most definitely looks fairly treated. Ran really well behind Al Ferof lto, just couldn't match the much classier horse. Won well on chase debut, of course you never know what would've happened had Champion Court stood up, but he didn't, and Astracad jumped well that day. He does face a lot of battle-hardened handicappers here, but a lot of them don't look well handicapped, and Astracad only carries 10-12. Oiseau de Nuit isn't greatly treated, but this trip poses a lot of questions for his opposition whereas it doesn't for him, and he may well be able to outclass them. Ran a great race behind Medermit in the Haldon but found the trip too far lto. 2:45 Doncaster Kie 2pt EW - 9/2 (PP) Ranjaan has to be taken on after his debut over hurdles, I don't like short-priced juveniles who've disappointed on debut. He did drift that day in the build up to the race, but he certainly didn't look a two miler. Kie wasn't a good flat horse but has shown immense improvement over hurdles, his form when second to Countrywide Flame and Secret Edge looks good. He's worth chancing for the in-form McCain it what doesn't look a great race. International Hurdle Grandouet 5pt EW - 3/1 (Lads) Grandouetlooks set to make the step-up to the top level and land a third International Hurdle for Nicky Henderson. He went off second favourite for the Triumph, and raced pretty prominently before taking up the running going well turning for home. He kept on all the way to the line but couldn't match the first two. Of all the prominent runners, he fared best, and no doubt hit the front way too early, which would not have suited. Held up at Aintree, he looked to be travelling well before being brought down, and taking the view that Zarkandar ran a flat race, he probably would've won. Confirmed his promise by easily winning at Punchestown and was then put away. He clearly would've beaten Celestial Halo had he not, for some reason, decided to take off way too soon and give Barry no chance. Got back to winning ways when never coming off the bridle to beat Marsh Warbler at Haydock a few weeks back. The form mightn't amount to a great deal, but when you take into account he was one of last year's top novices, who didn't get his run of the race in the Triumph and with a bit of luck, would be unbeaten since then, the price is fair. Not to mention he's trained by Henderson, and Geraghty will be riding. It'll be very disappointing if he can't make the frame, with obvious chinks in one or two of the dangers.

[Aidymac]

Re: Jump Racing - Saturday 10th International Hurdle Tomorrow My Tissue Prices and will have the actual prices in brackets next to it: Brampour 11/4 - (5/1) Menorah 7/2 - (4/1) Overturn 7/2 - (4/1) Grandouet 4/1 - (3/1) Sanctuaire 10/1 - (20/1) Clerks Choice 14/1 - (14/1) Pittoni 14/1 - (10/1) Stormy Weather 200/1 - (200/1) The two Nicholls horses look the standout value to me in the race, but i dont think Sanctuaire can win the race, he may nick 3rd but will find it tough... All the value in my eyes is with Brampour @ 5/1 and i think its an e/w steal for me. Menorah is the biggest danger to Brampour i feel. Won the Supreme Novices Hurdle, is a Grade 1 winner, is 33% on the ground and 50% over the trip, Hobbs also claims he has been aiming Menorah at this race, the trainer is 12% at Cheltenham and jockey/trainer are 16%, Menorah is 75% at Cheltenham. Would be the biggest danger to Brampour in my opinion but did unseat last time out, although was in command. Won this race last year. Overturn is also a Grade 1 winner and won its last 3 races. Is 42% on the ground but 0% over the trip, trainer says Overturn will love the ground but is taking a chance as it was meant to be rested after its last race. On a negative McCain is 5% at Cheltenham and Maguire/McCain are 5% at Cheltenham. Overturn also 0% at the track. Will make a bold bid from the front but may just find 1 or 2 too good i feel. Brampour has won a Grade 3 but is in cracking form winning its last 2, and its turn of foot was very eye-catching last time out. Harry Derham keeps the ride, although the 7 pounds he will no longer have, but he has a top animal under him. Won its last 2 races, 40% on the ground and 50% over the trip, Nicholls is 15% at Cheltenham and Derham/Nicholls is 33% at the track. Brampour is 50% at the track. Big chance imo. Had a breathing operation in the summer and no reason why it cant win this race after winning 2 big handicaps. Clerks Choice has won a Class 2 race and was beaten at odds-on lto. Is currently with Oliver Sherwood as Mr Banks has had some personal troubles to deal with. Sherwood is very hopeful but i cant see it winning. 20% on the ground and 0% over the trip, trainer and jockey have poor strike-rates at Cheltenham, although the horse has won at the track, is 33%. I would have to oppose. Was 6th in the Champion Hurdle but too much to do in my opinion to win. Grandouet has won a Grade 1 and won its last race. Is 33% on the ground but has not won over the trip, but the trip should be no problem. Henderson does not sound over-jubilant about its chances, he suspects the horse is better on a flatter track and that we will learn a lot about the horse tomorrow. Henderson is 12% at the track and Geraghty/Henderson are 20% at the track. Grandouet unsuccessful from 2 attempts at Cheltenham. I think the price of 11/4 or 3/1 is poor value. Sanctuaire is a Grade 2 winner but was a well beaten 8th last time out. But is 66% on the ground and 33% over the trip. Nicholls is 15% at the track and Walsh/Nicholls are 24% at the track. Sanctuaire has won at Cheltenham before and is 33% here. I think 20/1 is too big for this horse with Ruby on board and i expect it to outrun those odds. Was behind Brampour last time out. Pittoni i dont give much of a chance to! Is a Grade 1 winner and was a good 3rd to Thousand Stars last time out, but has never won on good ground, never won over 2m 1f, Byrnes feels it has a chance , Byrnes is 2/22 at Cheltenham and the McCoy/Byrnes is 0/1. Pittoni well beat on its only run at Cheltenham. I would see Sanctuaire and Clerks Choice both having a better chance than this horse. The McCoy factor has brought in the price. Stormy Weather is 200/1 for a reason. My forecast is: 1st - Brampour 2nd - Menorah 3rd - Overturn Brampour E/W @ 5/1 Paddy Power BOG :hope