Jump racing Sat 26th November

[bowles10]

From my trends thread posted wednesday night Hennessy - Saturday 3.10 Newbury Key trends Age 6 to 9 yo - 14/14 Age 6 to 8 yo - 12/14 Weight 11st 4lb or under- 13/17 SP 10/1 & under - 14/17 Fav 4/13 Debut for season 7/14 1-2 runs in season - 8/14 Won LTO that season 5/13 2nd season chaser 10/14 Between 6 - 18 career runs 13/14 The age stat stands out & the 6-18 career runs. SP is normally lower than 10/1 so one of the principals normally wins it. The weight stat has taken a pounding in last 6 years with the top weight winning 3 times off 11st 12lb. The quality of those 2 animals speaks for itself though. 2nd season chasers also do well. look at 6-18 career runs and 6-9yo only, this leaves the following: Joncol - 11st 6lb, 1st LTO, likes soft, never won beyond 3m Aiteen Thirtythree - 10st 10lb, 2nd LTO, won here twice in small fields and won over 25f Great endeavour - 10st 9lb, 1st LTO, never won on a flat track or beyond 22f Beshabar - 10st 8lb, debut, 5 out of 6 career wins on a flat track, won over further Wayward Prince - 10st 8lb, debut, has won over 25f, runs well fresh The Giant Bolster - 10st 4lb, Unseated LTO, not won on a flat track or over 23f+ Wymott - 1ost 2lb, debut, won over 25f, all wins in small fields Tullamore Dew - 9st 12lb, Fell LTO, not won over 21f+ Qhilmar - 9st 9lb, 2nd lTO, won over 26f on flat track LOoking through some other trends around and i find that 6-7yo's have 8 wins and 17 places from the last races so want to concentrate on that age group. 5 of the last 6 winners were rated 150 or more 9 of the last 10 had won over 25f or more 10 of the last 10 had won a class 2 chase or higher Leaving 2 bets for me and happy to post them up tonight Aiteen Thirtythree 6/1 B365 10pts win Wayward Prince 9/1 B365 10pts win

[Lars]

Re: Jump racing Sat 26th November 12:20 Newbury SHE’S ON THE CASE hasn’t run over this trip before but she looks like she’ll stay it and she’s a real genuine animal. Although she hasn’t been seen since May, she’s won when fresh before and she’s a big price with a top amateur on board. A winner in a bumper and over hurdles, she’s ran quite well on her only two starts over fences, shaping on both occasions like this 3m2f trip could definitely suit. Even over hurdles, she’s always shaped that three miles might be a little on the sharp side so this distance is definitely a step in the right direction. She’s also fallen in the ratings slightly and her current mark of 98 looks workable, if fit and ready to go after a break. Sam Waley-Cohen takes the ride and he’s 3/5 when riding for Grant Cann and his booking is a positive, especially as he’s doing a weight of 10st 2lbs which he hasn’t done for a while. The Grant Cann yard haven’t had many runners of late but had one run very close this week, so it doesn’t seem that there’s any kind of significant problem with the stable. Although this is an amateur riders contest, it’s quite a decent one with Horsham Lad a strong looking favourite, currently priced at 5/2. That price is about right though, and the others look thoroughly exposed. This one on the other hand, does not. She hasn’t had many starts over fences, is definitely unexposed at this staying trip and goes on all ground. At double figure odds in this sort of race, she rates as very decent value, as I feel she should be about a 6/1 chance. She’ll need to be fit and ready to go, information that I don’t have but if she’s fully primed, then she should go very well. SHE’S ON THE CASE; 2pts @ 10/1 Ladbrokes (bog)