NFL Wk. 9.

[TazaD]

Houston -13.5 (2.23 @ Cent) League: 13-5 (15-3 this no...av. win 17.9) home 10+ fav, off a 10+ SU win as home 10+ fav with 150+ rush. [houston] 5-0 (Av. win 25.4!) if opp last had

[meatman]

Re: NFL Wk. 9. Here's my performance bets for today :- Mark Sanchez over 200.5 passing @ 1.87 Bodog Shonn Greene over 74.5 rushing @ 1.91 Hills I think there is some potential for good offensive yardage today for the Jets. They have been gearing up towards the run recently and improved on it, Greene has looked better and I would expect him to keep grounding and pounding here close to the 100 yard mark. This isn’t going to be an easy game though and they might find themselves having to pass eventually. Sanchez is far from the best QB, but even he is capable of covering this low 200.5 line against the Bills. Ryan Fitzpatrick under 235.5 passing @ 1.91 Skybet Fred Jackson over 90.5 rushing @ 1.83 Paddy Power The Jets have an excellent pass defence still despite some problems, and the Bills wont get much yardage out of their best WR Steve Johnson today with Revis Island marking him. The Bills should look to run it a lot with Jackson, who has been superb this season and is seriously sharp at the moment. The only danger here is that the Bills fall behind a bit and have to chase the game, but it should be a close contest overall and if anything they are the team more likely to be ahead. Jackson should rush over 100 yards again, and Fitzpatrick’s options through the air will be limited, his best bet might even be Jackson in that department too! All in all, 237.5 looks a bit big when facing the Jets so I’ll take his unders. LaGarrette Blount over 77.5 rushing @ 1.80 Skybet The Saints can be taken advantage on in the rushing department, Steve Jackson proved that last week. Blount is back from injury and should be fresh and raring to go here. His sheer physically and strength will see him keep pounding away and weakening the Saints defence gradually. He will get most of the carries and I expect him to push the 100 yard mark today. The danger is that the Saints get ahead early and the Bucs have to chase the game, but that’s a risk I’ll take. If they can just stay within reasonable range they wouldn’t abandon the run until late on. Jimmy Graham over 65.5 receiving @ 1.87 Bodog His huge yardage streak has ended in the last 2 weeks and he’s only obtained 54 and 39 respectively against the Colts and Rams. Both were very unusual games in many ways, this should be a more conventional match against divisional opponents, who have had major problems facing TEs this year. It seems a real weakness in the Bucs defence and I see Graham having a good day and returning to form in this one. 65.5 looks a little too low for someone who has arguably been the best TE this season so far. Michael Turner over 95.5 rushing @ 1.87 Bodog Burner Turner has looked good recently and the Falcons have rediscovered their running game. They seem more geared up for that now and Turner has ran well and impressed quite a lot. Everyone knows how poor the Colts defence is, especially against the run and he should feast here. I’m pretty sure at some stage he will have one big run of say 30-40 yards+ and that would lay the foundations for him to cover this line of 95.5. The Falcons should get ahead and stay ahead in this game so will likely run the ball even more in the 2nd half. He could push something like 120-30 yards here such is the poorness of the Colts. Frank Gore over 90.5 rushing @ 1.87 Bodog Well I’m just surprised anyone is offering his line under 100 after his recent performances. You could say he is ‘due’ a bad game, but until that happens then I would say keep backing him. The 49ers’ attack just revolves around him and they are perfectly set up for the run. Even if the Skins try and prevent this, he will probably be too good for them. Hunter will take a few carries away from Gore, but nothing significant to stop him going 100+ yards again on the ground. John Beck under 245.5 passing @ 1.83 Ladbrokes All in all I see the Skins having a torrid time in offence today and I struggle to see where they will get points from. They will probably try and start off with the run, but the 49ers should have few problems facing Torain and Helu. I don’t think it will get much better via the air either though. Moss and Cooley are still injured, Davis is a fitness doubt. They simply don’t have enough weapons in the attacking game. Beck himself is a poor QB and the 49ers defence will definitely get to him here. I’ll happily take under 245.5 I think he’s going to be in for a struggling day. Tavaris Jackson over 205.5 passing @ 1.83 Ladbrokes I know McCoy ran all over the Cowboys last weekend, but I think that was just a pure freak. They have been stopping the run in all other matches so I cant see Lynch having too much joy here. The Seahawks will be forced to look to the air, especially in the 2nd half as I expect them to be trailing and chasing the game. In Rice and Baldwin Jackson has a couple of reasonable WR options who are capable of getting yardage. In a game like this, 205.5 is a fairly low line IMO, I see Jackson throwing it a lot today. Beanie Wells over 80.5 rushing @ 1.91 Skybet This guy is one of my favourite players in the NFL and I would say he’s one of the most underrated RBs around. I watched him last week against us (Ravens) and he did a bloody job facing our excellent rush defence managing to post up 83 yards. He has ongoing knee problems, but come match time he will suit up and pound away constantly. He’s a form man this season and has the chance to fill his boots facing the Rams. With Kolb injured too, then even more reason that the Cardinals will look to run the ball. I see Wells having a 100+ game here, so a line of 80.5 seems a bit low to me.