Flat Racing - Saturday, 5th November

[Monterosso]

2:00 Doncaster - Entitled - 2pts @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes) No fewer than 22 runners are set to line up for this 7f contest and the lightly-raced Entitled looks the most interesting now that she'll be encountering softer ground for the first time in her 9-race career. Sir Michael Stoute's 4-year-old filly is bred to be the type to excel on this ground (full sister won Group 1 races on soft and good-to-soft over a mile) and if she gets away with the 7f trip, which is probably a furlong further than her optimum, a big run can be expected despite having a career-high mark of 89 to contend with. Entitled is up a further 3lbs for finishing a solid 2nd on very fast ground at Newbury last time out in a lesser contest but given how unexposed she is, there's no reason to expect this rating is the ceiling of her ability (she's also the type to improve with racing and age). On that occasion, she travelled quite sweetly towards the rear of the field before showing a nice turn of foot to hit the front just inside the final furlong but she was eventually run down by the ultra-consistent and progressive Valencha (10/1 here). I'm very hopeful that Soute's filly can overturn that form on 1lb better terms and the softer ground should prove to be more favourable to her too, as Hughie Morrison's filly seems to give her best on better going, a view held by her trainer. This is the first time Entitled will visit Doncaster but her best form is on flat, galloping tracks and there should be absolutely no worries in that regard. How she'll see out the 7f trip on softer ground is the main worry but then again, it could be a massive plus either. The 10/1 price-tag is worth taking a chance on, despite Stoute usually having under-priced horses in this type of contest. I don't think that's the case here at all and I'll play small/medium win stakes in the hope that she can get her head in-front again. There's also a fair chance that Entitled will come on for the recent run, as it was her first in three months. David Probert takes the ride for the first time and he's a jockey I really rate. He has managed 2 wins from 3 rides for the yard (all this season) and hopefully he can add to that here. Another worry is the fact that doesn't ride the track very well at all (1-42) and his 25 rides in the past fortnight have all ended up as losers, although not too many were fancied. Regardless of it all, the horse is a talented filly who should be suited by conditions underfoot and looks in with a chance of running a big race. Richard Fahey's mud-loving Prime Exhibit (9/1) and Ed Walker's Axiom (12/1) are the only others I'd back and they may be worth having small bets on too. I'll stick with Stoute's charge to do the business in a race that should be run to suit.

[Monterosso]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday, 5th November 3:10 Doncaster - Pekan Star - 2pts @ 10/1 (Betfred, Hills, Ladbrokes) Another bet with plenty of risk involved, even more so than usual. Pekan Star has 22 rivals to overcome here and returns on the back of a 3 month lay-off having disappointed on his last couple of starts. However, with plenty of excuses to be found for the disappointments of Roger Varian's 4-year-old, he's a very lively contender in this ultra-competitive handicap off a mark of 93 - 2lbs lower than when sent off as the 3/1 favourite for the John Smith's Cup over 1m 2f at York. In that race, Pekan Star ended up getting beat by over 11 lengths to come home in 15th place but that doesn't tell the whole story, as he had moved nicely into a share of the lead a couple of furlongs from home before stopping very quickly. You'd think something went amiss with him that day but he wasn't thought of as being an easy going type at all and his headstrong nature may have taken control on that occasion. It certainly wasn't the performance of a horse previously thought to be a potential pattern performer after he scooted away with a 20-runner handicap off a mark of 85 on his only previous start that season (2 months earlier). Pekan Star then lined out in a Listed contest for which he was sent off as the 5/2 favourite but the race wasn't run to favour him at all and I'll happily put a line through that. He hasn't been seen since that race in August but in the meantime he's been gelded and that may just do the trick for this well-bred performer. The step up to 1m 4f for the first time is also something that should suit based on what he's shown to date and the Doncaster track will be right up his street, as a long home straight is always going to bring out the best in him. Pekan Star is said to be a horse who appreciates better ground but he may just get away with today's conditions if he proves to be as useful as was once thought and 10/1 looks like a nice price to me. The yard are also 5 from 7 at the track, so it's a happy hunting ground for them and Andrea Atzeni, who rides him for the first time, also does well here. There's plenty of the unknown element about backing this fellow in a race of this nature but he's talented and gelding him could help him reach his earlier promise. He's also very unexposed having only lined out on 5 occasions previous to this and there could be plenty more to come yet once the key to the door is found. Small/medium win stake for me again and fingers crossed that he'll run his race. Of the rest, Crackentorp is a very lively outsider and overpriced at 28/1, so he's worth having a small bet on too.