England lower leagues: Big Dogs

[allthethings]

Re: England lower leagues: Big Dogs Have taken a draw cover in the Notts County-Preston match, as the game odds for PNE have shot up to 5.14 (draw territory).

[allthethings]

Re: England lower leagues: Big Dogs

Have taken a draw cover in the Notts County-Preston match' date=' as the game odds for PNE have shot up to 5.14 (draw territory).[/quote'] Too bad I didn't wait to take this one on the draw, but the cover at least helped ease the night's pain caused by (above all) Wrexham failing to convert an equalising penalty at 96'.

[allthethings]

Re: England lower leagues: Big Dogs Had a PM that suggested I should explain what has changed since I started this thread. At first, I saw that dogs of 4.00+ were winning at better than 50%, so I was playing on the win and draw equally, profiting whenever dogs got at least a point. In the late fall, the favorites went on a huge run, taking my money over a period of weeks, dropping the strike rate below 50% and calling into question the whole strategy. What I recognized, though, was that they were still hitting above their break-even point, but my staking wasn't allowing me to profit. At first, I began splitting my bets two-thirds on either win or draw, and one-third on the other, but when I did the math I realized it was more profitable to just choose one or the other. Fortunately, having kept track of the dogs over the season, I saw that wins were more likely in games where the dogs were priced at 4.00 to 5.00, and draws were far more likely at prices above 5.00...and in both cases, the strike rates were well above break-even for the season. Here's how one of these situations breaks down, so you can see this for yourself. In Conference, dogs of between 5.00 and 5.99 have won 4, drawn 12 and lost 15. For argument's sake, let's say I was putting 1 unit on the win and 1 unit on the draw. When the dog won, I won about 4.3 units (most games in this range saw odds closer to 5.00 than 5.99) and lost 1 unit, giving me 4 games x 3.3 = +13.2 units in those 4 games. The 12 draws netted about 3 units each for the draw, but -1 unit for the win bet that lost on those 12 games, giving me 12 games x 2.0 = 24 units won. The 16 games in which the favorite won lost me 32 units in total. So, after these pretty big Conference favorites won 15 and lost 16, I ended up winning 13.2 + 24 = 37.2 - 32 = +5.2 units. Here's how it works now that I know that draws have been occurring three times more often than wins in this situation: 19 losses of 2 units = -38 units. 12 wins of 6 units = +72 units. Total: +34 units. Today's game is Mansfield, a dog pf 5.74 currently, to draw at Luton @ 4.02. If the draw happens, it'll pay for yesterday's three losses...yes, I need to win 1 out of every 4 draws I call in this range of odds, and so far this season the draw has happened 39% of the time. Now, could Conference dogs start winning these games outright? Sure. But I'm less concerned about this as the season goes on. Over all five top leagues, at 'dog odds' of better than 5.00, there have been 89 draws and 35 outright wins by dogs. The draw is clearly the way to go.

[Spankyf]

Re: England lower leagues: Big Dogs Really great work. I've been following yourself, addpea and ships in the conference for a while now, following with interest

[allthethings]

Re: England lower leagues: Big Dogs I just posted this up above in the EPL threads. I'll be on the dogs tomorrow across England:

I'll tell you what I find incredible: Week after week, the odds on offer for underdogs are amazing. Look at this week's weekday games. Nine of the 10 Tuesday-Wednesday games offer a minimum of 4.00 for the dog. Huge odds for Man Utd I get. But you're telling me that Swans can't get something at home against Chelsea, who time and again have failed on away as a big favorite? Wolves at home can't surprise Liverpool, as Bolton just did? Aston Villa is better than 4 to 1 against QPR...since when did Villa become such a home juggernaut? Norwich can't get something at Sunderland? These won't be bet down, either...every game will have enough people convinced that so-and-so is a "banker" that the odds will stay inflated.

Now having said all that, the strategy took a dive this past weekend. Two things made the losses easier to absorb: 1. After two great weekends, I was playing with the house's money (and lost only a tenth of what I won earlier); and 2. The strategy was very close to profiting. Newport and Forest Green were wrapping up winning draws for 2.5 units each, when Newport and Fleetwood scored goals at 94' to wreck both outcomes...a swing of seven units (from +5 to -2).

[allthethings]

Re: England lower leagues: Big Dogs Today: Won with Everton (+3.5) and Watford (+3.1), lost with Swansea and Cardiff...and then Charlton equalised at 93' for +3.9 units on the draw. Total: 3-2, +8.5 units. Those were the actual system plays...Unfortunately, I also played on Wolves @ 3.8, and in the last 10 minutes before the game started the odds jumped to 4.18, which would have made it a no-play. I still haven't totally figured out the timing, but I'll take +7.5 any day.

[allthethings]

Re: England lower leagues: Big Dogs This time I caught a break...took Bolton and West Brom earlier to get draws when the odds were in the range...by game time West Brom should have been a 'win' call and Bolton a no call. Both drew. Middlesbrough and QPR (win picks) both gave up late equalisers, although QPR was lucky not to lose by four. Norwich failed to gain a draw...and how. On the day, though, with luck on my side: 2-3, +3 units.

[allthethings]

Re: England lower leagues: Big Dogs Tottenham is a play tonight @ 4.40. It opened at 3.78. This past weekend was another solid one...In EPL, Wolves and Swans won @ 4.08 and 4.00 (I caught Swansea on the way down...it closed at 3.80), against losses with Bolton and Wigan. In ECL, Blackpool won @ 4.40, and Peterborough got a draw at nearly 4.00, against losses with Barnsley, Crystal Palace and Millwall. Chesterfield in League One was a loss...a total of 4-6, +6.5 units.

[martinsoe]

Re: England lower leagues: Big Dogs Hallo allthethings, your thread is very, very interesting and I am glad, that I find this. But I have question. Which odds (maybe which time) if for you causal factor for sorting between 4.00 or 5.00? For example yesterday West Brom – Chelsea. opening odds Brom was 13. feb. 3.80, then 3. march morning was 4.10 and closed odds 3.90. All odds were taken from 188bet. And different odds were on Pinnacle and SBO, BET365 etc… I know that is generally difficult decision, where is the value, but how is your view on that?

[allthethings]

Re: England lower leagues: Big Dogs

Hallo allthethings' date=' your thread is very, very interesting and I am glad, that I find this. But I have question. Which odds (maybe which time) if for you causal factor for sorting between 4.00 or 5.00? For example yesterday West Brom – Chelsea. opening odds Brom was 13. feb. 3.80, then 3. march morning was 4.10 and closed odds 3.90. All odds were taken from 188bet. And different odds were on Pinnacle and SBO, BET365 etc… I know that is generally difficult decision, where is the value, but how is your view on that?[/quote'] A very good question. I have been stung several times by taking a draw when the dog was at 4.40 for the win half an hour before the game, but 15 minutes later, the odds for the dog winning dropped to 3.7 (so I should have played on the win). However, I've benefited a few times, as well, when my draw came in. I don't think there's an answer whenever market timing is considered. If you waited until a minute before the game you'd never get all your bets in. I've been waiting as long as I can, though, as close to closing odds as possible.

[allthethings]

Re: England lower leagues: Big Dogs An update. Been winning a little bit lately, but have had a number of weeks now where things were looking good only to have two goals against my preferred result at 94'. Since it's a Tuesday, I'll update the weekday/weekend figures...only giving the situations I'm playing: Championship dogs of 4.0 to 4.99 weekdays 9-4-12 (36% wins) weekends 22-13-36 (31% wins) dogs of 5.0 to 5.99 weekdays 1-4-5 (40% draws) weekends 6-11-25 (26% draws) League One dogs of 4.0 to 4.99 weekdays 8-7-10 (32% wins) weekends 16-17-42 (21% wins) dogs of 5.0 and over weekdays 1-3-9 (23% draws) weekends 5-16-26 (34% draws) League Two dogs of 4.0 to 4.99 weekdays 8-1-17 (31% wins) weekends 23-19-32 (31% wins) dogs of 5.0 and over weekdays 1-4-10 (27% draws) weekends 3-15-22 (38% draws) Conference dogs of 4.0 to 5.99 weekdays 12-16-23 (31% draws) weekends 17-25-41 (30% draws)

[allthethings]

Re: England lower leagues: Big Dogs Coming off a winning round this past weekend, and I can't believe the odds I'm seeing. Ten of the 12 Championship games today have odds of better than 4.00 on the underdog. It's as if the market already knows who's won! I haven't decided yet on how high I'll be taking these...I'll be back closer to game time...but bear in mind the updated figures for weekday games: Odds 4.00 to 4.99 Dogs W/D/L 15-9-15 Odds 5.00 to 5.99 Dogs W/D/L 1-8-8 Odds 6.00+ Dogs W/D/L 3-5-12 The past couple of months overall have seen an incredible run of draws by the highest-priced dogs, all at better than 8.50: West Ham 1, Doncaster 1 Blackpool 1, Barnsley 1 Birmingham 2, Derby 2 Birmingham 2, Bristol City 2 Southampton 2, Portsmouth 2

[allthethings]

Re: England lower leagues: Big Dogs Records this season (home or away, whichever's applicable today) against or as dogs (favorites in bold) of better than 4.00: Blackpool (5-3-1) v Leeds (1-2-1) Brighton (6-1-1) v Watford (3-4-5) Cardiff (7-5-2) v Derby (6-4-6) Hull (4-3-4) v Barnsley (4-5-10) Leicester (7-5-5) v Burnley (3-1-4) Middlesbrough (7-8-1) v Doncaster (3-3-14) Portsmouth (3-0-1) v Crystal Palace (4-3-7) Reading (11-2-2) v Nottingham (2-1-4) Bristol City (2-0) v West Ham (4-0) Peterborough (1-1) v Southampton (2-1-3) You look at this list, and you realize that anybody in this league can get a result against anybody.

[allthethings]

Re: England lower leagues: Big Dogs In case you're wondering about away favorites, collectively big away favorites are 13-3-7 this season. All three dogs of over 5.00 lost…and those between 4.50 and 4.99 have gone 1-3. So home dogs of between 4.00 and 4.49 have gone 6-3-7. Relevance for today? Well, I might swerve on Bristol City and Peterborough, who are currently priced at 5.35 and 5.34.