Jump racing Saturday 15th October

[bowles10]

Cheltenham saturday card :ok

[bowles10]

Re: Jump racing Saturday 15th October I've got the 2.40 race down to course form now Calgary bay is best at this trip these days and has won or placed 4 from 8 round here. A mark of 146 may be too high to record a victory but has a decent chance of a place Benbane Head will stay all day and loves the fast ground. Has to carry 10lb more than best winning mark in this race. Price looks a bit skinny Edgbriar won this last year and is only 1lb higher than that winning mark so would have a chance here again. Possibly prefers a bit of cut in the ground Fine Parchment has won off 130 so a 5lb higher rating could be within its reach. Around 9/1 looks a bit of value about this one although Peter Toole was riding, i am glad to see Fehily back in the saddle now after a long lay off. Of the 4, Fine Parchment would be my choice over Edgrbriar and Calgary Bay, all 3 are better value than Benbane head. 12/1 B365

[bowles10]

Re: Jump racing Saturday 15th October 3.50 Cheltenham Balthazar King finally got it right over the larger obstacles last seaosn but in small fields. The horse liks it here and Hobbs is good at finding the right races for his horses. Johnson rides, he isnt my favourite but knows his way round here and can go close here against rivals whom either the ground is too fast or the track wont suit. Record in October is quite significant with 1-1-1-4 figures from 4 runs in October (2 in 2009/and 2 in 2010) win bet 5/1 B365

[Aidymac]

Re: Jump racing Saturday 15th October Catcherinscratcher - Cheltenham 2:05 Won a maiden hurdle in Listowel by 10 lengths three starts back. (2m 4f) Was then stepped up to 3m and won by 12 lengths at Tipperary. Went off FAV last time out but didnt perform great (2m 6f). Back up to 3m 1f tomorrow on ground that will suit. Trainer coming over from Ireland with 2 horses tomorrow. Trainer had a winner at Cheltenham today (Sizing Symphony). Trainer has 3 winners from last 6 runners at Cheltenham. Step up in trip bound to suit and 9/2 looks overpriced. WIN @ 9/2 Coral

[Stevet1859]

Re: Jump racing Saturday 15th October 2:40 Cheltenham: Buck Mulligan 1pt win 15/2 Paddy Power Buck Mulligan ran very well last time out at Market Rasen in a Listed handicap when only going down by a couple of lengths to Benny Be Good. This drop back in trip could be ideal and he goes well on a firmer surface. Evan Williams has his string in top form at the moment and Paul Moloney has plenty of confidence with a 62% strike rate over the past couple of weeks. With age on his side and scope for improvement Buck Mulligan should go well with his fitness assured.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Jump racing Saturday 15th October 3:50 Cheltenham: Galaxy Rock 1pt win 6/1 Skybet Galaxy Rock has the all important course form to his name and although he is up eleven pounds from a comfortable win in April he could still be ahead of the handicapper. This sort of trip is no problem and he handles the prevailing firmer surface. Jonjo ONeill is in decent form and Galaxy Rock won't lack assistance from the saddle. Galaxy Rock has the blinkers on which saw his form improve marketedly last season at at only seven he could still be improving.

[Lars]

Re: Jump racing Saturday 15th October 14:40 Cheltenham Fitness has to be taken on trust for Emma Lavelle’s QIANSHAN LEADER and even though he has to bounce back from an awful effort last time when pulled up in the spring, he’s a horse who goes well fresh, will appreciate the underfoot conditions and still has some room for improvement over this trip over fences. A three time winner, all on good or quicker ground, he made a fair amount of improvement last season even though he wasn’t seen throughout the majority of the winter, the likely reason being to avoid softer ground. He won on quick ground off a mark of 112 at Taunton before following up next time, albeit off a 5 month break and a 7lb higher mark at Doncaster. He jumped well when it mattered that day and he looked the type to improve with age, especially as he’s a big, powerful animal. His next two efforts both had reasonable excuses as to why he could only finish a well-beaten 2^nd (watered ground and too sharp a trip at Newbury, ran into a handicap blot at Ascot) and on all things considered on those performances, he still looked like a horse who could run to a mark in the 130’s this season. His last effort of the 2010-2011 season ended in a damp squib when pulled up at Stratford, but every horse is allowed a bad run and I’ll put a line through it especially as never travelled that well and the trip that day might have been a bit far for him anyway. No doubting this is a tough race and if Qianshan Leader isn’t up to scratch fitness wise, then he’ll very likely struggle. I’m not convinced though that he’s “weighted up to his best” as some suggest though, as he does have some decent form in his locker and has a decent record off the back of a break, with two wins from 4 starts after an absence of two months or longer. That coupled with the fact he adores the fast ground that he’ll get today and perhaps has a few lbs worth of improvement off his current mark of 127, suggests that he’s worth a tentative each-way wager at 14/1, especially with the enhanced place terms that Ladbrokes are offering. He’s the outsider of the field but in these extreme ground conditions, he should go well if fully primed and doesn’t deserve to be such a big price. QIANSHAN LEADER; 1pt EW @ 14/1 Ladbrokes (1/4 odds, BOG) 15:50 Cheltenham BALTHAZAR KING looks a cracking betting proposition on seasonal debut off what looks a fairly lenient mark of 136. For a horse that goes really well fresh, enjoys quick ground and seems to enjoy Cheltenham, he to me should be a clear favourite, although I will admit this is a pretty decent contest. The 7yo has plenty to suit over the 3 mile trip in what is only his 2^nd start in Handicap Chases. The first of which was incidentally his last start before a summer break which came in the Sandown Gold Cup and was prominent in the betting, going off a price of 8/1. However, he never travelled a yard and was most likely well “over the top”, never getting into the race as a result. It was his third run in under a month and it’s almost certainly a run to put a line through. Previous to this, he’d put in two decent efforts in two Novice Chase events (albeit one was a pretty weak contest). The other however was an exceptionally game performance here at Cheltenham over this trip, as on at least two occasions on the run-in, he looked like he was going to be overtaken but instead found plenty in-front and it was taking performance. Although the form hasn’t worked out too well (the two in behind are decent prospects but have struggled with their jumping) Balthazar King still looked a horse capable of running to a mark of around 145, so off his current mark of 136, he looks fairly well handicapped I feel. Another factor to consider is my selection’s absence, as he hasn’t seen the track for 175 days. Philip Hobbs can obviously get one ready but another factor in our favour is its record fresh. Off an absence of 60 days or more his form figures read 162F11. Four of these efforts were over hurdles and although was always competent over the smaller obstacles, he’s always looked like a chaser and this discipline suits him much better. There should be little problem with his fitness and I’m expecting a run for my money on that front. Little separates many at the front of this market with five horses priced at 6/1 or under. That being said, I believe that Balthazar King is well treated off his current mark of 136 and has plenty in his favour conditions wise. I’m expecting a bold show and even though a price of 11/2 doesn’t look the biggest on paper, I have him about a 7/2 favourite here and expect he’ll run a big race before moving onto graded races in the near future. BALTHAZAR KING; 4pts Win @ 11/2 Ladbrokes (bog)

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jump racing Saturday 15th October Cheltenham 2.40 Life Of A Luso 1.5pt win - 9/1 gen Life Of A Luso 1.5pt place - Betfair (3 places) Still backing this fella, who ran another cracker lto in a very competitive race. This race is virtually an easier one and he is the same price. Very game and the stiffer finish might suit. Hopefully won't get outpaced and will be running on up the hill. Responds very well for pressure, so hopefully the new whip rules won't count against him. 3.50 Balthazar King 3pt win - 7/2 Bet365 BetFred Balthazar King 3pt place - Betfair (3 places) This race has become a farce with ground good to firm and major players withdrawn, but Balthazar King loves this track and going and looks the bet. Meets Chicago Gray on a lot better terms than their novice chase encounters last season. Definite Dawn is progressive, but this represents a very big challenge for him. Nothing like the summer novice chases he was winning and placing in. Ethiopia was something of a freak winner at Chepstow last week and I'm not sure he can run another big race only 7 days after. The rest shouldn't be good enough, that's why whatever can be matched on the place market for 3 places is value. BK is a very sound jumper and should place even if he finds something too good. 4.25 Secret Tune 1pt EW - 8/1 Bet365 Lads Won a very decent race in the Cesarewitch trial over 2m2f (a trip that stretches him on the flat). Used to be quite a decent hurdler for Tom George and has won off this mark and placed in a grade 2 handicap at Ayr off higher. Probably not as speedy as before, so this trip should suit and AP McCoy looks a very interesting booking for this stable. Race lacks depth imo. Kelso 5.40 Yorkshire Knight 2pt EW - 7/1 gen Ran a cracker when last seen in a Ffos Las novice. The horses in that race have all franked form since especially Ongenstown Lad, who he almost caught on the line. Changed hands since and is with John Quinn now. I have a feeling this might be gambled today. Trainer likes to do it from time to time and has booked a fantastic conditional in a very poor race. Massive chance if they are trying. Fingers crossed this is one of the trainer's plots, because if he is, he will take all the beating.

[BillyHills]

Re: Jump racing Saturday 15th October Sports Punter Bets; 240 Ch: Life Of A Luso (9/1 Bet365) EW Only 8 runners now 3 have been pulled out due to the ground, the selection has been running well this season with cut in the ground but the sound surface is what he wants to show his best. Staying on last tiome when 4th at Market Rasen in a good race and is a sound jumper. Jockey Tom O'Brien gets on well with him and looks sure to run a solid race. 2.40 Ch: Benbane Head 100/30 Bet365 Trainer Martin Keighley has started the season well and this one won last time at Uttoxeter really well, he jumped for fun and took up the running some way out before pulling clear and staying on well, he should be able to cope with the Cheltenham fences and is clearly an improving sort. 4.55 Cheltenham Toubab (2/1) Zaynar (3/1) Toubab looked like a really promising type last season when winning a listed race on the bridle, he disappointed since and now is switched to the bigger fences for his seaonal debut. Has Zaynar to fear but that one runs for a stable who sometimes leaves a bit to work on and Toubab could take him on this occasion. If Zaynar is 100% wound up for his debut for the new stable he could turn out to be useful and is a calss act on his day. Back Toubab and a saver on Zaynar.

[jtw1]

Re: Jump racing Saturday 15th October 2.40 Cheltenham ---------------- EDGEBRIAR won this last season [as pointed out by Bowles] and at Cheltenham previous winning form is a major plus. Only rated 1lb above his winning rating that day , the ground that day was officially Good and the winning time only 2 secs above standard so i'm confidant he'll act on the G/F [also won on Good at Doncaster ] All his winning has been over 19-21f and the stable is in fair nick with a winner and three 2nd's from 7 runners in the past 14 days . D Elsworth rode him on this day last year and takes the ride today . Of the others SAFARI JOURNEY has never won past 17f. BENBANE HEAD is also a course winner but over further [26f] and this might be too short for him today . BILLIE MAGERN goes well fresh but is another who prefers further and has done most of his winning at Perth and Stratford , 2 very different tracks from Cheltenham. The distance may also be too short for BUCK MULLIGAN [23f his shortest winning race] . QIANSHAN LEADER may well need the outing and the yard has only had a couple of beaten runners lately. LIFE OF A LUSO has won 3 summer Chase's but has paid the price with a hike in the weights. MARLEY ROCA is a stable-mate of the selection who has won a couple of races at Stratford but both times was ridden [as he usually is] by D Elworth who has chosen to ride the selection [ dangerous thinking i know ] but you have to assume that he rates EDGEBRIAR's chance superior to MARLEY ROCA. 13/2 with bet 365

[Striker]

Re: Jump racing Saturday 15th October Good Luck All 5.40 Kelso-Border Flora Each Way @ 8-1 [boylesports] BOG Been off a long time,but showed ability that if still there puts her into this poor race with every chance

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Jump racing Saturday 15th October Heez A Steel 3.25 Kelso. 1 point win. Still capable of better in this sphere I think and this race looks very suitable. Handicapper lets him in off an attractive enough mark of 128 and the price is there to punt. 12/1 Bet365 (bog)

[Falbrav]

Re: Jump racing Saturday 15th October CHICAGO GREY 3.50 Cheltenham. 1 point win Improving and already has the form to go close. Trip and ground fine and weighted to go close if running to par. Should run a very big race today. 3/1 Bet365 BOG ________________

[bowles10]

Re: Jump racing Saturday 15th October well done those on Balthazar king today, was a decent bet in that race today :clap

[Aidymac]

Re: Jump racing Saturday 15th October

well done those on Balthazar king today' date=' was a decent bet in that race today :clap[/quote'] Well done Bowlesy! But if Chicago Grey stayed on its feet Balthazar would have been 2nd! But it fell so it doesnt matter. :nana

[bowles10]

Re: Jump racing Saturday 15th October

Well done Bowlesy! But if Chicago Grey stayed on its feet Balthazar would have been 2nd! But it fell so it doesnt matter. :nana

havent seen the race yet but its all about jumping!!

[Aidymac]

Re: Jump racing Saturday 15th October

havent seen the race yet but its all about jumping!!

Carberry rushed him into the fence, and it slipped on landing! He was full of running... But Balthazar ran a cracker and deserved the win as it was prominent throughout and jumped like a stag!

[Trotter]

Re: Jump racing Saturday 15th October I've really enjoyed watching the Cheltenham races for the last couple of days I nearly backed Chicago Grey but changed my mind..........and didn't back anything So that's like having a winner ! :p After a couple of years concentrating on the all weather over the winter I'm tempted to have a go at the Jumps this year for a change........I've had a couple of bets on the jumps in the last week and have a 100% record. I like the small fields, seems more chance of picking a winner.........:hope

[bowles10]

Re: Jump racing Saturday 15th October

I've really enjoyed watching the Cheltenham races for the last couple of days I nearly backed Chicago Grey but changed my mind..........and didn't back anything So that's like having a winner ! :p After a couple of years concentrating on the all weather over the winter I'm tempted to have a go at the Jumps this year for a change........I've had a couple of bets on the jumps in the last week and have a 100% record. I like the small fields, seems more chance of picking a winner.........:hope

not sure about others, but i feel my jumps knowledge is far better than my flat knowledge, possibly because the horses run less times so i recall how they act on certain courses etc Cheltenham remains my favourite jumps course and had 2 winners from 4 in the last 2 days. Chicago Grey will have another day i am sure. Pleased that Billie magern won for NTD, his cheltenham record is decent as a trainer and this is another possible improver as it gets older. Related obviously to the talented Ollie Magern

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jump racing Saturday 15th October Just pray these rules are revoked, because we're gonna get some real funny jump season if they keep this nonsense.