Simmo Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Hi all, These are my systems that I've created based on Matt's website, Soccer System Builder. I've been working hard over the last few weeks to develop a good system for both home and away picks. The subject of data mining has been discussed a good deal in Matt's SSB thread, and by thinking carefully and logically about which variables to include/leave out of my systems, I hope that it wont prove too much of an issue. Only time will tell of course. The systems show a profitable yield over each of the last 10 seasons and feature a healthy number of historic bets. After some good advice from other members, I have decided to paper trail the system only to begin with. So, here are the selections for this weekend, with odds correct as of about half an hour ago. Apologies for the shoddy presentation of the picks, if someone could offer a few tips on creating a table it would much appreciated. I tried and failed miserably via Excel. Southampton @ 2.15 Lad Reading @ 3.02 Pin Portsmouth @ 2.03 Pin Bristol City @ 2.64 Pin Cardiff @ 2.1 Pin Scunthorpe @ 3.4 Lad Yeovil @ 2.91 Pin Cheltenham @ 3.6 Bet3000 Bordeaux @ 2.84 Pin Lorient @ 4.2 Bet3000 Montpellier @ 1.529 Pin Valenciennes @ 2.05 SJ Bayern @ 1.207 5Dimes Koln @ 2.54 Pin Mallorca @ 3.2 Lad Rangers @ 1.2 SJ Starting bank 100pts. 2pts staked per selection. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Re: My system using Soccer System Builder Hi Simmo, Glad to see this thread here, good luck with it. My tip for posting selections would be to copy and paste the "upcoming matches that meet your criteria" and then edit the table that creates with the odds and bookie. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simmo Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 Re: My system using Soccer System Builder Thanks Matt, will try that next time. The weekend's results: Southampton @ 2.15 Lad :( Reading @ 3.02 Pin :) Portsmouth @ 2.03 Pin :) Bristol City @ 2.64 Pin :( Cardiff @ 2.1 Pin :( Scunthorpe @ 3.4 Lad :( Yeovil @ 2.91 Pin :( Cheltenham @ 3.6 Bet3000 :) Bordeaux @ 2.84 Pin :( Lorient @ 4.2 Bet3000 :( Montpellier @ 1.529 Pin :) Valenciennes @ 2.05 SJ :) Bayern @ 1.207 5dimes :) Koln @ 2.54 Pin :) Mallorca @ 3.2 Lad :( Rangers @ 1.2 SJ :( So, a spectacularly unspectacular debut for the system: 32pts staked and 31.95pts returned. Starting bank: 100pts Current bank: 99.95pts No of bets: 16 Yield: -0.0015% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simmo Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 Re: My system using Soccer System Builder I should have mentioned in the opening post that my staking plan will be 2% of current bank per selection. So, on to the midweek games, all tomorrow (Tuesday) night: Millwall v Brighton H 2.40 Ladbrokes Reading v Derby H 1.83 Ladbrokes Ipswich v Portsmouth A 4.50 Stan James/Ladbrokes 2pts staked per selection. Still cant seem to create a proper table. Tried your suggestion Matt, but it just defaults to lines of text upon pasting? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simmo Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 Re: My system using Soccer System Builder Sorry, I missed one selection out of the above post: Newport v Kettering H 2.05 Stan James Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Re: My system using Soccer System Builder Hi Simmo - using firefox? Copy and paste from Internet Explorer works fine - I have no idea why. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simmo Posted October 21, 2011 Author Share Posted October 21, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fearthainn Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Re: My system using Soccer System Builder Hi Simmo, good luck with this. Interesting to see the number of selections, as I could never create a system with such number that gave a good return. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simmo Posted October 21, 2011 Author Share Posted October 21, 2011 Thanks. Yes thats a good point and one that's on my mind. Still, Im happy enough to see how it goes for now, I can always try and toughen up the selection criteria down the line if things aren't working. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Re: My system using Soccer System Builder So you say you've avoided date mining when generating this system, and you are now basically saying you're going to fiddle with the parameters if the original system doesn't produce a winning system? The reason being? If the first 20 or so selections had proved profitable would you still be considering altering the parameters? It sounds to me that your constantly judging systems on historic data and wanting to change things if you dont instantly succeed. Good luck with your system but it really can't be called a system if things are going to be tailored to suit all the time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simmo Posted October 21, 2011 Author Share Posted October 21, 2011 'Fiddling with the parameters'? :) No, if down the line, eg at the end of the season, the system has performed poorly, I'll look at things to see if I can improve the system. As anybody would. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Re: My system using Soccer System Builder Not what you implied. You said you could change the criteria if things weren't working. I've not seen any evidence yet that using historic odds, or shot supremacy data (football-data info) can or will create a successful betting system going forward Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deleted Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 (edited) Deleted Edited May 4, 2020 by cyraxro Deleted Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndrewKent Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Re: My system using Soccer System Builder Good luck mate, just seen this thread and I'm glad to see someone has started one using Soccer System Builder. I will watch with interest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simmo Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Re: My system using Soccer System Builder Awesome result Simmo. I personally like a system that creates lots of bets with a slightly lower yield as you turn your money over faster and the raw profit is higher. You've also go the buffer that the results you see in SoccerSystemBuilder are the best odds available in the football-data files which are easily beatable on a week by week basis. 5dimes pop up a lot, not a book I have in my arsenal, I'll have to take a closer look at them. Nothing for midweek? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simmo Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 Re: My system using Soccer System Builder Thanks Matt. Pleased to see your free system back in the black too. Regarding 5 Dimes, they don't seem to get mentioned on here much. However, they are an A+ rated firm on SBR and I've had no problem with them. You may not have spotted them much as they tend to issue their prices pretty late in the week, probably after you've already done all your odds research. As for the midweek selections, they are as follows: 25/10/11CheltenhamCreweH1.83Stan James25/10/11JuventusFiorentinaH1.73Pinnacle25/10/11PrestonOldhamA4.5Stan James26/10/11Lazio CataniaH1.73Pinnacle26/10/11MilanParmaH1.36Ladbrokes26/10/11Real MadridVillarealH1.143Paddy Power Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Re: My system using Soccer System Builder Late prices aren't great in my book - generally end up being worse, especially in the lower leagues. I'm with you on Cheltenham. 1.95 @ Hills this morning. Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simmo Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Re: My system using Soccer System Builder Will update for the midweek games just played after the weekend. This weekend's selections then: SpursQPRH1.4InterwettenWest BromLiverpoolH4.2Stan JamesMillwallIpswichH2.25LadbrokesBurnleyBlackpoolH2.38LadbrokesWatfordPeterboroughH2.63PinnacleDerbyPortsmouthA3.1LadbrokesCarlisleOldhamA3.8PinnacleAldershotCreweH2.1Stan JamesBuryStevenageA2.625Paddy PowerSt JohnstoneSt MirrenH2.44PinnacleCelticHibernianH1.234PinnacleDijonMarseilleA2InterwettenLyonSt EtienneA6.93PinnacleParis SGCaenH1.402PinnacleValenciennesLille H3.39PinnacleM'gladbachHannoverH2.1Stan JamesFreiburgLeverkusenH3.75Bet 365StuttgartDortmundA2.3Interwetten :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simmo Posted October 30, 2011 Author Share Posted October 30, 2011 Re: My system using Soccer System Builder SpursQPRH1.4InterwettenWWest BromLiverpoolH4.2Stan James MillwallIpswichH2.25LadbrokesWBurnleyBlackpoolH2.38LadbrokesWWatfordPeterboroughH2.63PinnacleWDerbyPortsmouthA3.1Ladbrokes CarlisleOldhamA3.8Pinnacle AldershotCreweH2.1Stan JamesWBuryStevenageA2.625Paddy PowerWSt JohnstoneSt MirrenH2.44Pinnacle CelticHibernianH1.234Pinnacle DijonMarseilleA2InterwettenWLyonSt EtienneA6.93Pinnacle Paris SGCaenH1.402PinnacleWValenciennesLille H3.39Pinnacle M'gladbachHannoverH2.1Stan JamesWFreiburgLeverkusenH3.75Bet >365 StuttgartDortmundA2.3Interwetten The 6 games from last midweek (see previous post) resulted in a loss overall of 3.89 units. The games from the weekend above returned 40.23 units from 38.34 units staked. Current position as follows: Starting bank: 100pts Current bank: 108.45pts No of bets: 73 Total staked: 146.06pts Total returned: 154.51pts Yield: +5.78% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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