Flat Racing - Monday, 10th October

[Monterosso]

3:15 Yarmouth - Drift And Dream - 2pts @ 17/2 (VC) A strong 6f contest in the offing here with 14 runner set to go to post but it usually pays to race out of the higher numbered stalls here over this trip and therefore I'm taking a chance on Drift And Dream to bounce back to winning ways from stall 8. Things haven't went to plan for Chris Wall's 4 year old filly, as he reported that she had a few niggles throughout the past year and that explains why she wasn't seen back on the track until late August. Drift And Dream has run on three occasions since coming back this year, with improvement coming with each run. She comes here as one of the fresher animals in the race and connections now make an interesting move by returning her to 6f. In a 12 race career so far, Chris Wall's filly has only run over this distance once (also ran over 5½f once), and that was her second career outing in which she was too free to get involved. There's every chance that she'll be seeing out the trip on this easy track without any trouble, after all her best outings have come over the stiff 5f at Sandown - where she has won twice from 6 races. With the new whip rules being enforced around the country today, backing those who travel strongly may pay dividends and that's a comment that can certainly be applied to Drift And Dream, as she's a lovely mover when getting her favoured fast ground. Today's conditions should be just about fast enough for her and with a decent pace likely, she looks to be the one to side with. She's well-handicapped (runs off last winning mark), goes at the course (won on debut here over 5f) and has the capable Neil Callan on board for the first time, which looks like an interesting booking. Chris Wall's horses are going a lot better of late too, as his string just weren't performing in the early part of the season. This looks to be the time to catch his runners and the same comment could apply to Drift And Dream, as she's one of the better treated animals in this race. Wall also has a cracking record at the course, with 19% of his runners winning here in the past 5 years and he's had 5 winners from just 30 runners at the course in 2011 - which is especially impressive given how poorly his early-season runners were going. This isn't a race to be overly confident about anything but 17/2 about this animal represents value and if she's back to her best (shaped very well last twice), she really should get involved. Small win stakes for me and hopefully she could oblige. Alan McCabe's lightly-raced 3 year old, Levitate (12/1), may be worth having a little bet on too.

[Monterosso]

Re: Flat Racing - Monday, 10th October 3:45 Yarmouth - Loki's Revenge - 2pts e/w @ 16/1 (WillHill) Things haven't exactly went to plan for Loki's Revenge this season, as he's still without victory in 6 attempts as a 3 year old. He won on 4 of his 14 outings as a juvenile and although it seems as if his performances haven't been great since, the majority of them are a lot better than the bare figures suggest. As a result of that, he's now looking like a well-handicapped horse off a mark of 79 and William Jarvis now sees fit to apply first-time blinkers, which could well work the oracle for a horse who has looked awkward on occasion. Loki's Revenge was last seen running a solid 10th of 25 in the Ayr Bronze Cup, a race in which he stuck to the task well despite it favouring those on the pace. He was held-up towards the rear on the far side and just couldn't make any inroads into the leaders in his group of 11 - but still managed to finish 4th of his group, 2½ lengths clear of the 5th. It's hardly a brilliant run but it's a lot better than the bare finishing position suggests and I feel he's close to coming back into the winners enclosure. The main run I'm interested in is when Loki's Revenge ran over 6f at Goodwood when the ground was very soft. Connections got stuck into their charge, as he was well-backed from 16's the night before into an SP of 15/2. Stall 15 didn't look like a bad place to be positioned but as the race panned out and how the track was riding, he faced an uphill battle before he even embarked on the downhill course. At one stage he actually looked like coming with a winning run (hit 2.10 in-running) but he was repelled by the eventual winner (who I backed at 20's!) and then faded out of contention. He looked exceptionally awkward on the track though and to see him fade wasn't a surprise, but the effort can be marked up a fair bit. Loki's Revenge now tackles quicker ground on a completely different track, but that shouldn't pose any threat to him at all. The one worry would be how he'll cope with being positioned in stall 4, as that's not ideal in a bigger sized field around here but I'll take a chances at his current price of 16/1. Joe Fanning being on board for the first time is a big plus, as I don't think you can find too many better jockeys out there. He has an amazing record when riding for William Jarvis, with 13 winners and 12 places from just 57 runners - that's a 23% strike-rate and the pair show a massive ROI of 195% (had a 66/1 winner mind). They haven't teamed on the flat at all this season and it really looked like an interesting jockey booking. The horses owner, Dr Walker, has had Fanning on board his animals on 20 occasions, of which 7 ended up being winners. It looks as if they mean business today and added to all the simple statistics, the Jarvis yard are in stunning form of late, with 4 of their last 10 runners winning. Since August, they've had 10 runners at Yarmouth and 4 winners and 3 seconds have come about from them too. Loki's Revenge could well add to that here at a fancy price of 16/1 if all goes well and I'll play medium each-way stakes on him doing the business. He's definitely capable of getting involved and his current price is massive in relation to his actual chance. If he can put it all in and get a bit of luck, he's bound to go well. Whether that happens or not is another thing but I'm quietly confident that it will (famous last words).