Flat Racing - Sunday, 9th October

[Monterosso]

2:35 Goodwood - Gouray Girl - 2pts e/w @ 14/1 (Ladbrokes, 4 places) 20 runners are set to go to post in an attempt to win this C3 Handicap and assuming there isn't a track bias towards those racing on the pace, the hold-up horses should be favoured by how this will pan out - mainly down to the inclusion of so much pace in this 6f contest. Plenty of the field should be suited by this but Walter Swinburn's 4 year old filly, Gouray Girl, should be in her element and this is the time of year in which she usually comes good, so hopefully that's the case here again. Things haven't went smoothly for Gouray Girl since she was an impressive winner at Newbury (GS, 7f) nearly 12 months ago but she has returned to an exceptionally good handicap mark of 86 after failing to land a race this year (set some very unsuitable tasks). That's a rating now 3lbs lower than her only handicap win to date and the performance she produced on that occasion suggested she'd have little problems dealing with a mark in the mid-nineties when getting ideal conditions. This is a completely different test though, as she's very unlikely to get cut in the ground (unless the heavens open) and she's running at a much more speed demanding track. However, Gouray Girl isn't on that's lacking for speed at all and having turned in what I consider to be a solid run over this trip at Newmarket last time out, she shapes as if she's coming to hand again. She was a 4½ length 5th of 9 on that occasion but the track was severely favouring those on the pace and she did very well in the circumstances having been held-up right at the back. I'm not convinced that she's in love with that track either and the return to Goodwood - a place where she has finished a very close-up 2nd on both of her starts here (inc. on fast ground) - could well prove to be a smart move by connections. There should be nice, good racing ground today and that'll suit - plus she doesn't seem overly ground dependent anyway. Rain would be welcomed but the most important thing to her is a solid gallop to chase after, which looks virtually assured. Jim Crowley takes over in the saddle for the first time and he's an interesting booking, and certainly a capable man to have in control. If he can get her into a nice rhythm mid-race, she should be in with some sort of chance come the end of the race and may be up to giving the in-from Swinburn stable another winner. The lightly-raced Gouray Girl is definitely well-treated at the moment and this may be the time to catch her, so I'll play medium each-way stakes at a tasty 14/1 price-tag. I'd rate her as being worthy of a much shorter price, mainly down the performance level that she's capable of when things go well for her - plus she shaped quite well last time out in a C2 contest off a 2lb higher mark. Hopefully career win number three is on the way.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing - Sunday, 9th October

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Goodwood 2:35
Selection	Star Rover (Each-way)
Strength	2/10
Date	09/10/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 21.00
Reasoning	Confirmed he was unlucky at this course and distance two runs ago with a good effort last time out. His run at the C&D was for 8th of 9 by 6 1/2 lengths. Trouble found him inside the final furlong when squeezed up and ended up being eased down. He followed up with a 5th of 13 by 2 1/2 lengths next time out. Upped to a Class 2 Handicap from his Class 3 at the C&D. He finished 4th of 10 in the group behind Advanced, Signeur, and Tajneed. Now returns to a Class 3 race. He's capable of being being close when raced here and his current form is looking good for a first career win at the track. His other three runs here are for defeats of 3/4, 2 1/2, and 2 1/4 for 3rd of 4, 4th of 11 (Group 3 Molcombe in 2009), and 3rd of 12.

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Goodwood 2:35
Selection	Dickie's Lad (Each-way)
Strength	2/10
Date	09/10/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Paddy Power @ 9.00
Reasoning	Won maiden in 2nd career start by 14 lengths back in May. Poor on Handicap debut with a 9th of 10 by 15 1/2 lengths in a Class 3 Handicap but bounced back last time out when upped to a Class 2. He fininished 2nd of 12 by 2 1/4 lengths to York Glory at York over a 5f trip. He led the way up to 1f out and kept on the final 75 yards to take 2nd from Oor Jack. This is his only fifth start and there should be more to come. He has to have shown something well at home since he's been entered in higher grade handicaps. Perhaps the Good to Soft going two runs ago had something to do with the poor run. All his other runs had been on Good, Good to Firm, and Good. The forecast shows no soft so we should see his best once more.

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Goodwood 2:35
Selection	La Fortunata (Each-way)
Strength	2/10
Date	09/10/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 13.00
Reasoning	Return to 6f last time out resulted in his first win in 13 months. That win was also at 6f making him two from two at the trip; 6f today. She won a Class 2 Handicap at Newmarket last time out and keeping him at 6f is the right thing to do by trainer Mike Murphy. The selection made all the running last time out beating the favorite Swiss Dream by a 1/2 length with Cochabamba in 3rd. The trail of Newmarket to Goodwood had been used once on her this year and that sparked an improvement earlier this year. She was 5th of 10 by 6 1/2 lengths at Newmarket (5f) then improved with a 2nd of 17 by 1 lengths to Secret Asset here (5f) 21 days later.