Flat racing ~ Saturday 8th October

[Stevet1859]

3:50 Newmarket: Bernie The Bolt 1pt e/w 25/1 Bet365 & Beyond 1pt e/w 14/1 Ladbrokes (both 1/4 12345) Last year Bernie The Bolt was the ante post favourite for this race before injury put paid to his chances. It will be a fine training performance if Andrew Balding can get him to win this after a 416 day layoff, however, these days those sort of comebacks do happen. And its reasonable to assume he is pretty straight to be entered. If you put aside the time off for injury Bernie The Bolt has some excellent credentials. He won over course and distance in September 2009 and then won very well at Ascot in the stayers handicap at the Shergar Cup meeting. Those wins came off 87 and 92 and Bernie The Bolt, who acts on the likely good to firm going is off 95 here. All things considered its worth chancing that Bernie The Bolt is over his injury at 25/1. Martin Pipe had an excellent record in this race and it looks like David has a fine chance to follow in his father's footsteps here. Beyond has only raced once on turf but that was a comfortable victory at Sandown where he pulled clear of Red Kestrel. With loads of scope to improve for racing and this extra distance he could get in the shake up from a low draw and the assistance of William Buick. 2:35 Newmarket: Tough As Nails 1pt e/w 22/1 Stan James Tough As Nails has produced some very good form when encountering a sound surface and this drop back to six furlongs could be in his favour too. In May he was only beaten a short head by Power at The Curragh and the second to Lilbourne Lad at the same course in June reads well too. There is a concern that his form may be tailing off, however he was running over seven and on yielding to soft the last twice. With the underfoot conditions at Newmarket much more to his liking he could go close at a decent price. 2:20 York: Rasaman 1pt e/w 25/1 Coral (1/4 1234) Rasaman has only had four outings this season so far which is a light campaign for a sprinter. He drops back to the minimum trip here and he is three pounds lower than his last winning mark. Rasaman has run some of his best races at Musselburgh yet there is no reason to believe he is a one course specialist as he has notched up victories at a variety of tracks. In this wide open handicap, Rasaman should get a good tow in to the race from his draw and then with a clear run through he might go close

[bowles10]

Re: Flat racing ~ Saturday 8th October Playing up a few trends tomorrow at Newmarket 2.05 Newmarket Graveyard for favs with 2 from 13 Dont be surprised if a longshot wins with 5 winners at 16/1+ in last 13 years. Three 3yo's have returned at odds of 20/1 in the last 12 years & all were trained by Barry Hills, Hills also had last years winner Red Jazz 11 of the last 13 had won earlier that season but only 2 won LTO. Horses campaigned the length of the season do well also. This is key. The Barry Hills factor is not here this year and disappointing that Charlie couldnt find a runner in one of his dads favs. Take a chance on RIMTH ew 14/1 sj LECHEVALIER CHOISI ew 40/1 sj 3.10 Newmarket This race has also seen a fair share of big price winners with 4 winners in last 13 returning at 25/1+. 2008 winner was 20/1! At the other end of the scale, 6 favs have gone in over the 13 years. The race has produced some excellent horses with the likes of New Approach, Teofolio, Rock of Gibraltar, Sir Percy and Frankel all winning this race in the last 9 years. Therefore, horses with staying pedigree to be followed. Bets Parish Hall ew 20/1 pp Power win 3/1 B365 3.40 The Cesarewitch has an amazing stat with high drawn horses with 11 of the last 12 being drawn 17 or higher (2008 - draw 11), so you are taking pot luck on anything lower. Indeed the 7 of the last 9 have been 23 or higher! THIS YEAR THOUGH THIS WILL BE LOW NUMBERS AS THE DRAW HAS CHANGED. 50 of the last 56 placings in the race have gone to horses weighing 9st 1lb or less. higher age groups appear to be favoured with 9 of last 14 being aged 6+. Winning form is not essential with only 1 winner in last 13 having won LTO bets Ermyn Lodge ew 16/1 B365