Flat Racing - Sunday, 2nd of October (Arc Day)

[Monterosso]

Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe 3:15 Longchamp - Workforce - 3pts @ 10/1 (WillHill) 16 runners are set to line up for this brilliant Group 1 contest and the lack of any truly outstanding 3-year-old's lead me to believe that recent trends of Classic generation dominance could be bucked here. No fewer than 16 3-year-old's have landed this race since 1990 and they've won 7 of the last 10 running's, with a further 9 places from a total of 66 runners in that time. 4-year-old's have only managed 2 winners and 6 places from 55 runners in the same time-frame, mainly down to the difficulty of giving away weight to the younger horses. That could all change here though, as I'm just not taken by the Classic generation representatives today and I'm hopeful that one of the older animals is going to score, preferably my selection! The one that I'm interested in is obviously my old favourite - and last years winner - Workforce. Sir Michael Stoute's 4 year old would have to break the trend that has seen no horse land this race in successive years since Alleged won it (at 3 & 4) back in 1978 & 1979, although I'm not sure how many have reappeared the next year and I can't imagine it being very many. Only 2 of the previous years winners - in the past 10 years - have run in the race the following year, with both finishing in 3rd position. I still wouldn't pay too much heed to any statistic but they're interesting at the same time. Workforce comes here on the back of having run in the King George at Ascot on July 23rd, the same race in which he flopped in before lining out to win this race on his next course outing last year. Things went a lot better for Stoute's charge this year but he could only manage to come 2¾ lengths behind the brilliant John Gosden trained Nathaniel - a well-built 3 year old to whom he was conceding 12lbs due to the weight-for-age allowance at that time of year. The bare result doesn't tell the whole story as Stoute's exceptionally impressive 2010 Derby winner threw away his chance by hanging across the course under pressure. It seems as if he was feeling something but I don't think the race was ideal for him anyway, as it was quite farcical in how it was run. That was Workforce's second run in a few weeks and I'd imagine he's on that's best caught relatively fresh, as he showed when becoming the first horse in God knows who long to win this race without having a run within the last 50 days. He comes here on the back of the exact same time off the course and hopefully that'll lead to him showing his best form again. Form with So You Think will have to be turned around, as my selection for today's race faced off with the New Zealand bred Ballydoyle superstar in the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown (on penultimate start). However, that was over 10f and Workforce still managed to come a half-length behind over a trip that is a quarter-of-a-mile below his optimum. I expect that he's got the beating of that horse over this trip and their respective prices in the market is all wrong (5/1 vs 10/1). Another positive for Workforce is that he gets to race in a big-field for the first time this year. He's 3 from 3 in races where there's big fields (12, 12 & 19), as this gives him the chance to be buried in towards the rear of the pack with plenty of cover, something he hasn't had a chance of doing this year. With the pace being likely to be strong and 15 other rivals to get in amongst, I imagine that he'll have everything run to suit today at a track that we know he handles. Doubts over the ground have arisen, as he certainly doesn't want it too fast (despite winning the Derby on good-to-firm in record time) but today's conditions shouldn't hinder his chances as it seems likely that it'll be nice racing ground - not too quick, not too slow (although it'll be listed as good-to-soft it seems). A bit of rain wouldn't go astray though. With regards to the draw, Workforce will be coming out of stall 8, the same one he raced out of on route to winning this last year. It seems as if you want to be drawn in the lower half to have any chance and he has fared well in that regard. Obviously, in a race of this nature, the opposition have to be feared. Sarafina and So You Think are currently battling it out for favouritism at around the 5/1 mark. The former was obviously an unlucky loser when being mauled by a weakening horse in this last year but I can't for one second believe that she is fairly priced at 5/1 when you consider how tough it'll be for her to win from a sit in stall 13. Similar comments can apply to the latter, as he's one stall up for her in 14. I also don't think that he would win anyway unless they went very slow, which seems unlikely. 1m 4f in a truly run race may just catch So You Think out and despite his obvious talent, he's up against it here. That's not saying he can't win, I just don't think he will. Snow Fairy isn't without a chance but is she good enough? I wouldn't think so. She could run into a place but at 14/1, I wouldn't be overly keen to back her. Freddie Head's Galikova is the most prominent in the market of the 3-year-old's but I'd much prefer to back a horse with some big-field experience and she's never raced in anything with more than 9 runners in her 7 race career. She's obviously talented and could love this different test, but 8/1 isn't a price that's tempting enough. Similar comments apply to 14/1 shot Meandre, as all bar his first career start have come in small fields. I'd also question how good he is, as his Group 1 win came about by beating Seville into second, something that most horses seem capable of! He has been supplemented by his brilliant trainer and should run a good race, but he's too risky for me. Workforce is the one I'll take a chance on, as I feel he's overpriced at 10/1 and should have everything in place to run his race. The Stoute yard haven't had a good season at all but this would be a lovely way for them to turn around all of the misfortune that they've had. Ryan Moore also comes back to the saddle after injury and there'd be no better way for him to come back than by being victorious in this race for the second time in as many years. Hopefully it'll all come to fruition and I'll play medium win stakes in the hope that this brilliant colt can show his best form to buck all of the trends that are against him. He owes me nothing having backed him in this at 6/1 last year but I'm quietly confident that a repeat performance could be in the offing before he heads off for a well-deserved career at stud.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Flat Racing - Sunday, 2nd of October (Arc Day) One bet today it goes over in France in the 2nd race .5 e/w SOLE POWER 8/1 WH. This Irish trained runner has proved its worth by winning a couple of top races and can take this forget last run that was over 6f has plenty in its favour today and i'm sure trainer will have horse horse fine tuned for a tilt at this. Also think Graham Lee could have a very good day at Kelso!