Pricing Form Seeking Value

[Jackform]

Hello, This is my first post here hoping for constructive criticism with a view to improving my approach. I convert ratings to odds to compare with the betting market looking for possible value - a sort of poor man's Pricewise. In the examples I will use Topspeed and RPR as the ratings converted. This is more a method than a system as judgements have to be made. I usually consider the better races from the UK mainland courses with the idea that the form will be more consistent. Today, Sep 26, I checked the Hamilton 3.40 and rejected it because of the non-runners. The Bath card seems rather poor opposite the penalty values so I dicarded that too. Turning to Ffos Las the 2 handicaps 3.50 and 4.20 are of interest. Ffos Las 3.50 the Timeform 'expected' are West Brit, Icebuster, Red Inca. I usually take speed in handicaps rather than trying to second-guess the handicapper, so pricing Topspeed gives me: Icebuster - my price 11/2 (Betfair 3.9)? SP returned 2/1 West Brit 18/1 (4.6)? SP 9/2 Highland Dancer 6/1 (19) each-way? SP 16/1 Red Inca 11/2 (6.8) a bet? SP 4/1 Pivotman won SP 8/1 and not unexpected really as with the Topspeed SF 93 was rated joint 2nd top with Icebuster. Ffos Las 4.20 Timeform 3 are Qahriman, Becausewecan, Slight Advantage. Pricing Topspeed gives: Becausewecan - my price 11/2 (Betfair 10.5) a bet? Won SP 9/1 Qahriman 11/1 (3.5)? Oldrick 9/2 (17) each-way? 2nd SP 10/1 Slight Advantage 11/2 (4.3)? The above situation could change of course if the market moves between now and the 'off'. Any comments would be most :welcome

[Jackform]

Re: Pricing Form Seeking Value I see that my initial posting has not set the world alight with interest as I hoped it would :wall , never mind onwards and - well onwards. I did mention 'my odds' yesterday, which is incorrect, what I really meant was the price calculated by converting the Topspeed ratings into odds, this being his professional opinion of the value. I'm using SF as the class indicator in handicap races rather than OR or any handicap ratings. I used to compile my own form ratings by filtering the field through the critical factors advised by Professor Frank George (circa 1978, 'A Better Bet'), which I found interesting but time consuming although I still employ the principles to make judgements with regard to - selection, odds and staking. Prof. George's influential factors in determining winners were - class of horse, weight, time, recent form, distance, the odds , the going, the jockey, the draw, stable strategy. Returning to 'class' he indicates several ways of determining this - by tracks ran on, class of race, prize money, form ratings, time and I use time as it is a universal yardstick that can be applied to any race. I have been rabbiting on mainly because I coudn't find anything to interest me in today's UK mainland cards, but I did check the Ayr 4.40 handicap just to keep my hand in: Ayr 4.40 Sep 27 (The Timeform 3 are Dare To Dance, Calaf, Mirrored) Column headings - race cloth No., Topspeed odds, current Betfair market. 1. non-runner 2. -, 30 3. 9/2, 1.55 (4/1 best Topspeed), Dare To Dance, LTO challenged led won Newmarket. (Won well SP 8/15). 4. 9/2, 10.5 (5/2 best Topspeed), Mirrored, LTO headway ridden stayed on for 3rd Ayr. (2nd 12/1). 5. 4/1, 11 6. 9/2, 14.5 7. -, 11 8. 11/2, 6.8 (best Topspeed 74) , Calaf, LTO headway ridden ran on for 2nd. Opinion: Dare To Dance will be the warm favourite after being withdrawn from the Cambridgeshire last week when he was the favourite and represents no value here. Mirrored would have been OK each-way but not with 7 runners. Calaf currently represents no value. Comments please :notworthy