cpo Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 As much as I like Blue Bunting, I think she could be vulnerable in this race. I do think she will get placed though as she will be battling on when others have had enough. Sea Moon I think was flattered by the winning distance at York... there were some odd results at the meeting as the ground was a bit suspect so I am going to be taking on the favourite. Census for me looks the one to be on. This horse has already turned the form around with Brown Panther and I expect this horse to turn the form around with Masked Marvel. I thought Census's win last time out was pretty comfortable and he should be even better with the longer trip here. I think he is the one to beat! Also think its pretty appalling that Kingscote has lost the ride on Brown Panther. I haven't seen his race in Germany but I don't think he could have done anything to change the result last time out behind Census. For me he hasn't done anything wrong on Brown Panther. 1. Census 2. Blue Bunting 3. Masked Marvel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Re: St Leger One at a massive price that I think could turn out to be a great each way bet is Genius Beast at 66-1 (Bet365, Betfred, Paddypower). It was smashed by Sea Moon at York but it ran flat and then started to stay on again and looked to me like it definitely needed further. I think others have suggested the same to connections and that is why they've gone for this race. I can see it going a massive price in running and looking beaten and then running on late towards the end of the race. Might not be good enough to win but at 66-1 it's worth a few quid to find out and at 1/4 odds first 3 you'd be getting 22-1 on the place. :okSeville at 8-1 has to be the worst bet in the race, doesn't like a battle, no proof it will get this far and turned over at a short price last time out. I'd favour Census over Sea Moon or Blue Bunting from what I've seen but also very interesting to see Fallon on Brown Panther, isn't the Leger the only classic he has never won? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Re: St Leger One at a massive price that I think could turn out to be a great each way bet is Genius Beast at 66-1 (Bet365' date= Betfred, Paddypower). It was smashed by Sea Moon at York but it ran flat and then started to stay on again and looked to me like it definitely needed further. I think others have suggested the same to connections and that is why they've gone for this race. I can see it going a massive price in running and looking beaten and then running on late towards the end of the race. Might not be good enough to win but at 66-1 it's worth a few quid to find out and at 1/4 odds first 3 you'd be getting 22-1 on the place. :okSeville at 8-1 has to be the worst bet in the race, doesn't like a battle, no proof it will get this far and turned over at a short price last time out. I'd favour Census over Sea Moon or Blue Bunting from what I've seen but also very interesting to see Fallon on Brown Panther, isn't the Leger the only classic he has never won? I said this after the race at York. Really stayed on well and I said early in the season I thought he was a Leger horse. I obviously have my doubts over whether he's good enough - ie. It'll take a big improvement for the trip! However, that's why he's 66/1. Think Sea Moon will win but I don't think GB will be disgraced. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Re: St Leger I like Blue Bunting - triple group one winner and certain to stay, might even improve again for the extra trip Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Re: St Leger Sea Moon is far too short now, if you have bigger prices then fair play but you only have to look back to Rewilding last year for alarm bells to ring. He has a huge chance, no doubt about that and he could be a class above but he is not certain to stay the extra distance and 11/8 best price now is silly (as short as evens with VC!). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Re: St Leger At the moment i am in the Census camp, i think 5/1 is an e/w steal, thought it would have been 7/2ish , i think its nailed for a place and Hannon hugely regards it! Looked exceptional last time out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Re: St Leger Tipped Masked Marvel antepost and if I had to play today I'd still be on him. Not sure fav should be that short, Blue Bunting has been on the go fair bit and might struggle against the colts. The allowance is just 3lbs after all, not the 10lbs or more she was getting at York from Vita Nova. The best form line for me is Census/Masked Marvel and I'm not sure why Census will reverse it, he was flattered to be closing in on MM when they met. Gosden and Fortune both said MM was pulling himself up infront. I think he might have the beating of Census and definitely the one to be on at 8/1. If Census beats him so be it, but I still think MM will be in the first three. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Re: St Leger Sea Moon for me. Slightly faster time than Blue Bunting over CD at York. Hopefully still improving , only had a few races so quite possible. Negatives are his short price and SMS patchy form at moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 Re: St Leger If someone finds a replay, please post it. No replay on ATR and I just came home. The result makes up for it, but I really wanna see the race :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 Re: St Leger http://www.racingpost.com/media/media_centre.sd?view=rp&media_id=29023&mcTabs=mcVideo Off that pace and still cantering 2 out. This horse is serious Gold Cup chance next year imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 Re: St Leger I reckon you could easily get a few different results if you ran the race more times. Very difficult to assess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stewartd14 Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 Re: St Leger I would beg to differ Rupert. I thought the race was very truly run, and produced a fair result. I would be confident the form of the race will hold up in the future. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 Re: St Leger I reckon you could easily get a few different results if you ran the race more times. Very difficult to assess. Well yea, when races are run at a doddle usually the results are complete fluke. Off proper gallop usually the best horse wins, which is exactly the case here. Sea Moon might have snatched a 2nd with a better ride, but winner was still cantering 2 out. I think we have a really good horse here and I think he'll prove that next year if he stays in training. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 Re: St Leger I'd say you can get a race run too quick though. That was a serious test of stamina with the headwind also - more of a test than most Legers in my opinion. Horses were off their feet before the straight. Damn good ones too. Not taking anything away from the winner but I just reckon it played into his hands more than others. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 Re: St Leger He broke the track record... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 Re: St Leger That's why it's important to know if you can trust particular connections. I have my full confidence behind John Gosden to get things right. Tactics, training ability and jockey. Everything with him is 100% spot on. Can I back a Stoute horse or a Hannon horse with so much confidence? Nope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stewartd14 Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 Re: St Leger I'd say you can get a race run too quick though. That was a serious test of stamina with the headwind also - more of a test than most Legers in my opinion. Horses were off their feet before the straight. Damn good ones too. Not taking anything away from the winner but I just reckon it played into his hands more than others. I think these are the races that produce the truest results. The Leger is the stamina testing classic, and today we saw a true stayer win the stayers classic. Correct result I think, and it's testament to the quality of a horse if he's still on the bridle when those around him are feeling the pinch of the strong pace. If anything, I actually believe it suited Brown Panther more than Masked Marvel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 Re: St Leger I think these are the races that produce the truest results. The Leger is the stamina testing classic, and today we saw a true stayer win the stayers classic. Correct result I think, and it's testament to the quality of a horse if he's still on the bridle when those around him are feeling the pinch of the strong pace. If anything, I actually believe it suited Brown Panther more than Masked Marvel. I just think it made it a requirement that your horse stays further than the trip. I know it was quick ground but they went flat out with a headwind. The winner is very much a top-class stayer, but I just have an inkling it wouldn't be clear-cut whatsoever if they didn't go a breakneck pace - especially with the wind conditions. Most races aren't run like that so even if some people might call it stupid, I'd probably side with Sea Moon if the two met again over the same trip. Could be wrong but I don't think it's an outrageous opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stewartd14 Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 Re: St Leger I just think it made it a requirement that your horse stays further than the trip. I know it was quick ground but they went flat out with a headwind. The winner is very much a top-class stayer, but I just have an inkling it wouldn't be clear-cut whatsoever if they didn't go a breakneck pace - especially with the wind conditions. Most races aren't run like that so even if some people might call it stupid, I'd probably side with Sea Moon if the two met again over the same trip. Could be wrong but I don't think it's an outrageous opinion. Certainly not outrageous mate. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stewartd14 Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 Re: St Leger By the way Rupert - If your interested, James Willoughby writes some brilliant stuff on his blog about pace of races etc. One of my favourite authors, and I can't reccommend his stuff highly enough. Quite complex, and deep at times, but very insightful. http://thefiguresneverlie.blogspot.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 Re: St Leger Also, not sure Sea Moon had conditions ideal either. Does he want softer? More of a galloper too so I'd have had him closer to challenge and then you have the traffic problems. Only thinking out loud. Not much point debating it because it just gets frustrating 'cos you can't prove anything :lol Look forward to seeing where they all go next! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 Re: St Leger By the way Rupert - If your interested, James Willoughby writes some brilliant stuff on his blog about pace of races etc. One of my favourite authors, and I can't reccommend his stuff highly enough. Quite complex, and deep at times, but very insightful. http://thefiguresneverlie.blogspot.com/ Will take a look mate, cheers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 Re: St Leger I think you're making a common mistake, mate. I'm not criticizing, just trying to help here. Many people think horses finishing fast and not getting there are "unlucky". Finishers like this result in one thing only - they are always poor value nto. In reality what happens is, they are just flattered to finish so well. Why was Census 5/1 and Masked Marvel 8/1? Because Census almost caught MM off slow pace when they met. Clearly MM was most unsuited by that pace yet people wanted ot back Census to reverse that form, which is not always the case. In fact, it's very rarely the case. Sea Moon had the gaps to go through, but lacked class/courage. Yes the ride was poor and yes he finished well, but don't bank on him beating Masked Marvel, because you'll be disappointed. Masked Marvel is idling infront just like he was idling against Census. I think he will beat Sea Moon nto, yet they'll probably be pretty much the same price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 Re: St Leger I think you're making a common mistake, mate. I'm not criticizing, just trying to help here. Many people think horses finishing fast and not getting there are "unlucky". Finishers like this result in one thing only - they are always poor value nto. In reality what happens is, they are just flattered to finish so well. Why was Census 5/1 and Masked Marvel 8/1? Because Census almost caught MM off slow pace when they met. Clearly MM was most unsuited by that pace yet people wanted ot back Census to reverse that form, which is not always the case. In fact, it's very rarely the case. Sea Moon had the gaps to go through, but lacked class/courage. Yes the ride was poor and yes he finished well, but don't bank on him beating Masked Marvel, because you'll be disappointed. Masked Marvel is idling infront just like he was idling against Census. I think he will beat Sea Moon nto, yet they'll probably be pretty much the same price. My point isn't really about Sea Moon being unlucky. I just think the race didn't suit him. He's seems more of a galloper so to have him right out of the back probably didn't help. Didn't have a very good run through and the ground might have been too quick. I'm not saying he should have won or anything. The best horse on the day won - ie. the one who handled conditions most. Because those conditions aren't replicated all that often, I'm simply saying I'm not 100% convinced that the placings would remain the same if they met again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 Re: St Leger I'm simply saying I'm not 100% convinced that the placings would remain the same if they met again. Yep, possibly Census will be closer and Brown Panther won't be 2nd. It's relevant for every race though :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 Re: St Leger Yup. Exciting to see where they all go from here now. Best renewal for a while? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 Re: St Leger Yup. Exciting to see where they all go from here now. Best renewal for a while? Not the best. Nathaniel would've smashed them :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 Re: St Leger Not the best. Nathaniel would've smashed them :D Was gonna say. If Nathaniel was in the field, too, would have been unreal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 Re: St Leger Was gonna say. If Nathaniel was in the field' date=' too, would have been unreal.[/quote'] He is too good for St Leger. Goes close in the Arc imo. I just want that overrated bag-o-shite So You Think in the field, so Sarafina and Nathaniel can beat him by 20L and we're once and for all over with the hype. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 Re: St Leger He is too good for St Leger. Goes close in the Arc imo. I just want that overrated bag-o-shite So You Think in the field, so Sarafina and Nathaniel can beat him by 20L and we're once and for all over with the hype. Well he certainly should. I'm sticking with Workforce though. Just hope he doesn't hang. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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