Odds on Favs

[jtw1]

After a bit of discussion on the main ATR thread , Wizzkid Walter took a bit of criticism for his Odds on Fav thread . I am of the opinion that a profit could be made and this is an attempt to justify that idea. I am going to apply a few rules , of which i'll post later and due to circumstances the selections will be from Ireland and from the UK [most meetings] on Sat and Sun. This is a PAPER TRAIL which i'll run for 4 weeks [initially] or if the bank empties . 100pt Bank ----------- Bet 1 - 10pts GALLILEO'S CHOICE 6.05 Killarney

[jtw1]

Re: Odds on Favs

Bet 1 - 10pts GALLILEO'S CHOICE 6.05 Killarney

1st @ 4/5 :) Now the next part is placing all the 18pt returns onto the next selection which will apparent tomorrow . This is my comment i posted onto the 'backing odds on shots - the quick way to the poor house ? ' thread on ATR -- 'My opinion , for what it's worth , is that trying to make a profit from short-odds favourites is bound to be a long slog but like everything in betting DISCIPLINE is the keyword and a profit could well be found ;) I would start by betting in NON HANDICAPS only , both on the Flat or over the Jumps . [personally i would stick to hurdles for obvious reasons, falling etc] If you want evidence simply click on any Flat race meeting on the RP site , click on Favs and see the difference in strike rate between Handicap and Non handicap Favs. Secondly , and this depends on whether you have access to the stats , stick only to races where at least 50% of previous favs have won that particular race . The sun newspaper usually provides a favs record at the bottom of each race [at least the main meetings that day] Thirdly , i would stick to odds between 1/3 and 6/4 . With each bet guaranteeing a 100% return on the original stake ie if the 1st selection is 5/4 then a single win bet is advised. If however we have ,say , a 1/2 shot then the winnings [if any] should be placed onto the next selection between 4/5 and 1/3 . If anyone knows where else a 'fate of the Favs' record is available i'd be interested . The RP members section allows access to the past record of each race but thats a subscription service and i'm a tight Bugger !!! So , in a nutshell , the selection process is an odds-on shot in a Non Handicap race which has a 50%+ record of winning Favs and the odds are within the 1/3 to Evens range. The Sun newspaper is the onlt one i know that publishes the fate of the favs at the bottom of each race [the main meetings anyway ] and as i am only able to post AM on a Saturday it's only then i'll take into account the UK meetings . The Irish records are available freely on irishracing.com [at the bottom of each racecard]