Flat Racing - 4th Aug

[cc75]

3.30 Brighton: Plattsburgh 1pt win @ 3/1 Ladbrokes BOG Mark Johnston has an enviable record at Brighton with a 30% strike rate and £47 profit to level stakes over the last five seasons. He sends one runner here today, the in-form Plattsburgh. Won comfortably over this trip at Doncaster on penultimate start before running with great credit over the same trip to finish a close runner-up in a better race than todays LTO at Ffos Las. Only 1lb higher than that run today and I think this progressive 3yo could take all the beating with Darryl Holland taking just this one ride at Brighton today.

[zoolander]

Re: Flat Racing - 4th Aug Brighton 4:30 Hierarch 8-1 Boyle Sports 1 Point WIN Looking at this horse form it looks to me as if he has been running at unsuitable trips/ground lately and today under his new yard which is in form they run him at mile on good ground. His past performances in these conditions is encouraging with a 2nd off 10lbs higher than today and some creditable performances off a much higher mark than today. No headgear today for the new yard either so they obviously have been working with the horse. This class 6 wont take much winning and trainer has a 30% strike rate here, 60% with his 4 year olds(3/5). Each way is the safe bet but the win at this price is too hard to turn down.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Flat Racing - 4th Aug Day off today so thought I'd get stuck into today's action: 16:40 Haydock Tim Easterby has his stable in cracking form as of late and I fancy his chances in this race with Bollin Greta who looks to be his best chance of a winner today. This isn't the easiest of races by any means with several lining up who have solid enough claims but this 6 year old gets my vote. Proven stamina with 3 of her 5 wins coming over today's trip of 14 furlongs. A career best effort is needed today, running off 6lbs higher than her latest win which came at Nottingham in May off a mark of 72. She has since placed off a mark of 75 and did run with some credit at York last time out off today's mark of 78 (travelled really well throughout the race) so it would be stupid to rule her out of this. David Allan is back on board today to take over from Graham Gibbons and he knows how to get the best out of her considering he has been on board for all 5 of her wins. She likes to be held up and although there is no definite front runner to take them along today, plenty in the race do like to race prominently so there should still be a decent pace for my selection to run at late on and I expect fully to see her running inside the final few furlongs. 1pt win Bollin Greta @ 5/1 (Paddy Power - BOG)

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing - 4th Aug Lady Florence - Brighton 3:00 I had to back this for sentimental reasons today as my grandmother is from Florence! In looking at the form it won this race the last 2 years in a row and Seb Sanders replaces a claimer, it loves Brighton, it is a course specialist, might get a soft lead today and storm home, has not many horses to beat! Should be prepped for this race. Win @ 9/4 (VC) BOG __________________

[StuSimmy]

Re: Flat Racing - 4th Aug 15:30 Brighton If memory serves me correctly it is very rare that Mark Johnston sends horses to Brighton which suggests to me he fancies this horses chances today as it is his only horse at the meeting. Plattsburgh looks very progressive and he was rather unlucky not to notch up his 3rd win last time out where he finished a half length second at Ffos Las one week ago. Stayed on strongly inside the final furlong but by then it was too late and he was held off. The horse has already won at the track over 10 furlongs and also notched up a win over 12 furlongs at Doncaster. This is also Mr Holland's only mount at the meeting which is another positive for me. Hawaana is not without a chance though as he is seeking a hat trick and has previously won over today's course and distance so it won't be plain sailing for Johnston's 3 year old. 3pt win Plattsburgh @ 3/1 (Ladbrokes - BOG)

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing - 4th Aug

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Brighton 14:30
Selection	Paradise Place
Strength	10/10
Date	04/08/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Paddy Power @ 4.33
Reasoning	Step back up to 6f will help. Raced her over 5f in the last two and could only finish 4th of 6 and 4th of 5. Her 6f form this year is three runs for a 1st of 8, 2nd of 5, and 5th of 9. The win came at Wolverhampton for trainer Jeremy Noseda to start off 2011. The 2nd placed effort was at this course and distance in May and her debut for trainer Robert Cowell. She finished a neck behind Pick A Little who went on to win his next two races for the hat trick. The selection nearly won taking the lead inside the final furlong but was headed in the final 100 yards.

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Haydock Park 14:40
Selection	Diamond Blue
Strength	10/10
Date	04/08/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 3.50
Reasoning	Won on debut and respectable 3rd in her handicap debut next time out. She chased the more exeperienced Johnny Hancocks (4th) and Mr Mo Jo (5th) then led narrowly over 1f out but was soon headed, had no extra and lost 2nd the last 100 yards. The front two were much more experienced and better rivals than she has today. Another Wise Kid won the race by 2 ¾ lengths to Lady Royale who ended up 1 ¾ lengths ahead of the selection. Another Wise Kid already won twice from five runs this year going into the race. Lady Royale was just improving and went on to win her next two starts. The ground was also slower that day compare to her debut win. She should have more to give. She was a £20,000 yearling by Namid and half-sister to useful 5f/6f winner Ingleby Lady and fairly useful 5f winner Mey Blossom.

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Yarmouth 14:50
Selection	Starbound
Strength	10/10
Date	04/08/2011
Bookmaker/Price	William Hill @ 3.75
Reasoning	Won last time out by 1 length at Brighton (1m). The front two market leaders finished 3rd and 2nd. They were both male runners so the form looks good for this Fillies Handicap. This will be the first time she faces an all female field. She led for 3f, led again 2f out, narrow lead after, idled, driven out last time out. There is more to come from her. She is well bred by Lodge Park Stud. Owned by Cheveley Park Stud for 400,000gns. The second foal of Glinting Desert with her first foal being the top-class 2yo Alfred Nobel.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing - 4th Aug

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Brighton 15:00
Selection	Makheelah (Each-way)
Strength	5/10
Date	04/08/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Skybet @ 10.00
Reasoning	Best at 7f. Unplaced in all 1m runs, 10th of 10, 7th of 14, 6th of 8, and 8th of 9. Her 7f form is a 4th of 10 on debut and 3rd of 11 three runs ago. She was only beaten 2 1/4 and 1/2 length in those two runs. Drop back to 7f today should get her back to top form. Perhaps 1m will suit her next year but not right now. She is half-sister to Duke Of Homberg, 7f winner at 2 in France, later useful 8.5 winner at 3 in US, & Always Dazzling, 7f winner at 3, placed over 6f at 2; dam dual 7f-1m winner at 2-3 in France for 50,000gns, foal 60,000gns.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing - 4th Aug

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Brighton 15:30
Selection	Bedouin Bay (Each-way)
Strength	3/10
Date	04/08/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Stan James @ 13.00
Reasoning	Good run on return to the flat last time out. He finished 6th of 14 by 3 1/4 lengths at Newmarket (July) 26 days ago. It was a hard race as it was a Class 3 Handicap but the drop to a Class 4 and change in track should help him improve. He Led 1f, led again over 6f out, strongly challenged over 2f out, headed approaching final furlong, no extra. He won a 2m1f Novices' Hurdle in his penultimate run so the stamina is there. Should have more to come on the flat too. He was previously owned by Sheik Mohammed, trained by Andre Fabre and had a Yearling tag of £360,000. Connections purcahsed him for 38,000gns at Newmarket last October. He is a two time winner over 1m4f, once in France and in February to start off his 2011 campaign.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing - 4th Aug 3.00 Brighton - 2pts win Makheelah @ 10/1 (Bet365) - BOG I think this horse is a stonking price in a pretty poor fillies handicap over a trip just short of 7f. 10/1 in a 6-runner field is well overpriced in my opinion, even though she ran an absolute stinker last time out. She's only had 6 runs to date, and receives weight for her age. She ran well on debut at Doncaster over 7f when 4th of 10, beaten just over 2 lengths. Her next two runs can be excused for the ground being too soft at Yarmouth over a mile, and her next run came after a long break back on quicker ground at the same track. She bounced back to form with a close 3rd behind Icebuster over 7f at Leicester. She then ran well in a tough handicap at Doncaster when just fading over the mile behind the decent Submission. The form of that race looks a lot stronger than what she races against today. She was only beaten 4l. She shaped as if wanting 7f on good ground after that, but she got a mile on soft ground again, and she bombed last time out. She'd done it before on soft ground so it was no surprise, and I expect her to bounce back under ideal conditions today - on a slipping mark, and receiving weight.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing - 4th Aug

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Haydock Park 16:10
Selection	Midsummer Fair (Each-way)
Strength	5/10
Date	04/08/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Sportingbet @ 8.00
Reasoning	Highly regarde $290,000 foal from Godolphin. Made winning debut by 3 lengths at Newmarket in the Greville Starkey Wood Ditton Stakes. Made a trip to Longchamp in May for the Poule D'Essai Des Poulains (Group 1) (3yo Colts) (Turf) but could only finish last of 14 runners. Much better in a Class 2 Conditions Stakes in June when 4th of 5 to Alkimos, Maali, and Buthelezi by 5 ¾ lengths stepping up to 1m2f for the first time. The drop back to 1m and a Class 3 Hanidcap should see him back to winning form. Jockey booked is Antioco Murgia and he’s been riding well the last 30 days. Had 12 rides, 3 wins and placed 2nd three times. Rode 7 times for trainer Mahmood Al Zarooni for a form of 8th, 7th, 4th, 1st, 8th, 2nd, 1st. This is his only ride of the day.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing - 4th Aug

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Yarmouth 16:20
Selection	Negotiation
Strength	10/10
Date	04/08/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Coral @ 5.00
Reasoning	Running well of late against in a higher grade and drop to a Class 6 looks like a good bet. His latest was a 3rd of 10 in a Class 4 Handicap at Yarmouth (1m2f). Led, ridden and headed over 2f out, kept on one pace. Destiny Blue finished 2nd and went on to finish 2nd next time out to Michael Bell’s Set To Music. The winner Agent Archie from William Haggas was a three time winner for John Best and an easy rival to beat as he won by 3 ¾ lengths. The selection also raced well at Newmarket and York before his last outing.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing - 4th Aug

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Yarmouth 16:50
Selection	Miss Polly Plum
Strength	10/10
Date	04/08/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Ladbrokes @ 4.33
Reasoning	Won two of last four. Last five reads 21183. Also won here in May over the 6f trip. Lifetime form at the track is 2nd, 4th, 1st, 3rd. She raced over 6f in a Class 4 Handicap at this course 10 days ago for a 3rd of 6 by 1 3/4 lengths. She was the overall leader in the centre with four others with the winner racing alone in the stands side who won by a nose. The selection had the lead until headed inside the final furlong by Ursula. Those behind here were Ceremonial Jade, Seek The Fair Land and Grayfriarschorista. The drop in trip and class helps.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing - 4th Aug

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Leopardstown 17:45
Selection	Requisition (Each-way)
Strength	3/10
Date	04/08/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 15.00
Reasoning	One of three entries from trainer A P O'Brien. This is the outsider and the most expensive horse having a yearling price of E550,000. He is by Invincible Spirit and Saoire the winner of 2005 Irish 1,000 Guineas. Seamie Heffernan is booked and he's done well with O'Brien's 2yo's this year having 8 out of 25 for a strike rate of 32%.

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing - 4th Aug

Lady Florence - Brighton 3:00 I had to back this for sentimental reasons today as my grandmother is from Florence! In looking at the form it won this race the last 2 years in a row and Seb Sanders replaces a claimer, it loves Brighton, it is a course specialist, might get a soft lead today and storm home, has not many horses to beat! Should be prepped for this race. Win @ 9/4 (VC) BOG __________________

Cant believe this drifted out to over 7 on betfair at one stage, and ended up 7/2, a great price in a 6 runner race! :) Just because that won i shall have another small bet for later on... Dancing Welcome - Chepstow 7:30 This one jumped out at me when i thought of the England U/20's side arriving in Columbia and all the female Colombian police were dancing for them at the airport upon their arrivel! :lol On a formline, it won its last race and that was over C+D here at Chepstow last month in a competitive handicap and is only up 2 pounds so should hold every chance again tonight. Win @ 6/1 (Betfred) BOG

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing - 4th Aug

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Folkestone 18:00
Selection	Proper Charlie (Each-way)
Strength	5/10
Date	04/08/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Victor Chandler @ 6.50
Reasoning	Only placed effort came from one of his three runs at 7f. It was in a maiden at Warwick to start the year leading the way until being headed in the final furlong by Proper Charlie and Uppercut. Made his debut over 7f at Yarmouth for a 5th of 9. Last time out was a 7f contest wher he plugged on for 5th of 10 in a 0-85 Handicap at Epsom. Today is a drop to a 0-70. Four of the five runners behind him raced with an official rating of at least 80 so that form is decent.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing - 4th Aug

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Leopardstown 18:15
Selection	Strandfield Lady (Each-way)
Strength	5/10
Date	04/08/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Blue Square @ 6.50
Reasoning	Likes it here. Won 5 out of 9 runs at the track. Won 2 of 3 starts here this year. LTO was here for a 4th of 13 by just 1 3/4 lengths. It was a tough race with 19k going to the winner. It was won by lightly raced Bible Belt, 2nd horse was the LTO winner Castle Bar Sling, and the 3rd was Elusive Award. It was the thoughest race he's had this year and now this is slightly easier. He gets a jockey change but that should not be a problem. Jockey R P Whelan had ridden 3 winners from his last 7 rides.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing - 4th Aug

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Chepstow 18:20
Selection	Red Current (Each-way)
Strength	2/10
Date	04/08/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Skybet @ 26.00
Reasoning	Does her best with the ground on the slow side just like tonight. She placed on softer going 5 times from 9 tries. Her best runs over hurdles also have been on slower ground. Return to the Flat should not be a problem. Trained by Michael Scudamore who has done well on the flat this year. He has 3 wins from 27 with 5 seconds and 4 thirds. The selection placed 3rd of 10 in her only Flat run for Scudamore.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing - 4th Aug

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Folkestone 18:35
Selection	Ewell Place
Strength	10/10
Date	04/08/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Sportingbet @ 2.20
Reasoning	Made debut in a 4 runner Class 2 Conditions Stakes at Ascot in April. Ran loose before the race and could only finish last that day. He was better next time out last May when 2nd to a smart one. He finished by 2 1/4 lengths to Richard Hannon and Richard Hughes' Crown Dependency who followed up with a good 4th in the bet365 Molecomb Stakes (Group 3). The other Hannon entry Airborne Again finished 3rd by 2 lengths to the selection and he won next time out.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing - 4th Aug

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Folkestone 18:35
Selection	Spunky (w/o Favorite)
Strength	10/10
Date	04/08/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Paddy Power @ 5.00
Reasoning	Failed to win after two starts but cannot be counted out yet. Both runs was at Windsor over 6f. The track today might suit him better with a 6f straigth course. He showed promise on debut with a 6th of 14 by 6 3/4 lengths on Good to Firm. The next run was on Good and could onyl finsih 7th of 12. The ground today is again quicker and that should also help. Trainer Luca Cumani knows how to win here. The last 5 seasons had him bag 10 wins from 33 runners. This is his only runner at the track this meeting. I don't think he can beat the favorite but the other three rivals he can.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing - 4th Aug

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Leopardstown 18:50
Selection	Words Of Wisdom
Strength	10/10
Date	04/08/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 5.00
Reasoning	Won here three runs ago at the 1m trip keeping on well under pressure final furlong to win by a 1/2 length. Placed 3rd in the two runs after that but still remains in good form. He's really matured over the summer and there should be more to come. Trainer Edward Lytham changes jocey to Johnny Murtagh. Lytham had been in good form having won 3 of his last 7 with 3 more being placed. He won with his first two entries this month. The latest was yesterday with Murtagh in the saddle. This is the trainers only runner of the day with Murtagh on board.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing - 4th Aug

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Chepstow 18:55
Selection	Silvas Romana (Each-way)
Strength	5/10
Date	04/08/2011
Bookmaker/Price	William Hill @ 7.50
Reasoning	Won on Good ground two runs ago at Chestser (6f). Sent back there next time out with the ground being quicker and finished 5th of 7. The ground today should suit and will be there if back to form from two runs ago. Handled Southwell well with a 2nd placed effort. His only run on Good to Soft was for a 6th of 7 but that was in a stronger maiden contest plus it was for 7f where she weakened in the final furlong.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing - 4th Aug

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Folkestone 19:10
Selection	Dualagi
Strength	10/10
Date	04/08/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Blue Square @ 5.00
Reasoning	Did not have it easy when 5th of 7 at Bath three weeks ago. She finished behind Ebraam, Comptonspirit, Wooden King, and Kyllachy Storm. She won this last year by stepping up in Class. She tries to regain her crown by being dropped in Class. She's won twice from seven starts this year and that is better than last years form of being winless from 8 starts being taking this race. Her other run at the track was when 3rd in this in 2009. I think this is one of her target for the year and with her form being better this year she has to be considered.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing - 4th Aug

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	Sandown Park 19:20
Selection	Tahaamah (Each-way)
Strength	5/10
Date	04/08/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Skybet @ 10.00
Reasoning	Flopped last time out weakening over 1f out at Newmarket (1m2f). Return this year impressively at Chester (1m2f) winning by a length. Won debut and 2nd in two starts last year. Well bred by Darley, half-brother to useful 1m2f winner Russian Society, 1m 2yo winner Russian Revolution and fairly useful 1m-1m2f winner Deep Winter; dam very smart middle-distance filly (12.5f Group 2 winner). Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has jockey Kieren Fallon tonight along with the first time tonguestrap. The trainer and jockey partneship was successful at Epsom in a Conditions Stakes winning by 9 lengths over 1m2f with Prince Siegfried.

[Cowan]

Re: Flat Racing - 4th Aug Chepstow 7.30 - Class 6 Handicap 7f (16 runners) Those drawn high tend to do better. Also all the early pace is at the high end. These two factors mean I'm only looking at horses drawn 11+. Held-up runners tend to do badly at Chepstow so I'm looking for a prominent or front running type. Dancing Welcome (13/2) fits the bill and was a lto c&d winner. Looks well handicapped with OR54 and can do the double. An interesting runner is Rich Harvest (33/1) was sold last year after attaining an OR which was too high. Now trainer-owned by Ray Peacock his mark has come down by 21 since then to a paltry 37. Has has two races this year on the AW which will keep him fit and now tried on turf for which it is better suited. Is now entered in two races on turf so trainer/owner clearly makes something of this ones chances. May need to come across to the stands rail to find better ground.

[Cowan]

Re: Flat Racing - 4th Aug Sandown 7.55 - Class 4 Handicap 10f (10 runners) With the going good-soft there is no draw bias. Held-up runners struggle at Sandown. Ramona Chase (12/1) has raced often in class 2 events but never won. Has a much better record in class 4 and is top weight here. Will go on the soft ground and looks to be well handicapped in this race given its ability. Draw allows it to sit in behind the leaders and then push forward without finding trouble.

[Petersson1984]

Re: Flat Racing - 4th Aug

Sandown 7.55 - Class 4 Handicap 10f (10 runners) With the going good-soft there is no draw bias. Held-up runners struggle at Sandown. Ramona Chase (12/1) has raced often in class 2 events but never won. Has a much better record in class 4 and is top weight here. Will go on the soft ground and looks to be well handicapped in this race given its ability. Draw allows it to sit in behind the leaders and then push forward without finding trouble.

Could anyone please explain the "Class system" to me? I see that the horse Ramona Chase has ridden, some class 2 races but are in a class 4 race tonight? Thank you :D

[Cowan]

Re: Flat Racing - 4th Aug The official handicapper rates every horse after it has had 3 runs. For example a horse may get a rating of 70. Should it perform well, winning and placing in races, then its rating goes up a bit, if it does poorly its rating goes down a few points. A class 6 race allows horses rated 0-60 to compete, therefore our example horse with a rating of 70 is 'too good' to compete with these and would probably whip them. Our horse can compete in class 5 minimum, it can race higher than that if it wants to but would probably get beat. If our horse wins his class 5 race he will be rated 74 or similar, and can no longer race at class 5 anymore (for horses rated 0-70), he must go up the classes. Hopefully that explains it. Eventually a horse reaches a ceiling where it is not good enough to go any higher, it may yo-yo between the classes. Ramona Chase is good enough to win class 4 events, and when it does, it has to go up to the next class, where it is not good enough, and so it comes down again.

[Petersson1984]

Re: Flat Racing - 4th Aug okay i see. Thank you :clap

[Falbrav]

Re: Flat Racing - 4th Aug MATTORAL 7.55 Sandown. 0.5 points each way. Consistent and goes with cut in the ground. This track not a concern and has recently dropped to an inevitable mark of 72. Should be able to run his race and therefore go close. 7/1 Bet365 BOG

[Petersson1984]

Re: Flat Racing - 4th Aug One last "class" question. How many classes is there?? 1 to 6? :D