veresov Posted January 7, 2005 Share Posted January 7, 2005 The following is a well known formula for calculating the expected return(Value) on a wager over the long term. V% = (P% * B$) - 1 where P% = result Probability, B$ = Bookie Odds Here are my value plays for tomorrow West Ham (.5 * 2.4) - 1 = 20% return Preston (.5 * 2.5) - 1 = 25% return You could also consider 1X for both of these plays as well where my system has them winning or drawing at around 85%. The return would then be around 15% on each bet with much less risk. Starting bankroll $1000.00 Record (0-0) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruise Pristene Posted January 7, 2005 Share Posted January 7, 2005 Re: Veresov Value System(Give it a try)!! is the 0.5 your estimate of probability of event happening ? if not how is it calculated Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
veresov Posted January 7, 2005 Author Share Posted January 7, 2005 Re: Veresov Value System(Give it a try)!! The .5 represents a 50% chance for the team to win the game outright. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted January 7, 2005 Share Posted January 7, 2005 Re: Veresov Value System(Give it a try)!! Should it not be .33 then as there are 3 possible outcomes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
veresov Posted January 7, 2005 Author Share Posted January 7, 2005 Re: Veresov Value System(Give it a try)!! No, my handicapping system says that they both have a 50% chance to win the game. I am not blindly selecting these teams where it would then be 33% mathematically since there are 3 outcomes. Veresov Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruise Pristene Posted January 7, 2005 Share Posted January 7, 2005 Re: Veresov Value System(Give it a try)!! careful, just because there are two outcomes doesn't make it 50% e.g Man U vs Kidderminster even if you had a 2 goal HC you wouldnt say kidderminster have a 50% chance of winning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
veresov Posted January 7, 2005 Author Share Posted January 7, 2005 Re: Veresov Value System(Give it a try)!! I am not making myself clear it seems. I am saying that my system for handicapping soccer says that these two games are 50% for the home teams. The criteria I use to handicap these two games suggests to me that they both have a 50% chance to win. I am not blindly selecting anything. So based on the probability that I have defined for these matches, there is value in betting both of them. Thanks, Veresov Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruise Pristene Posted January 7, 2005 Share Posted January 7, 2005 Re: Veresov Value System(Give it a try)!! well good luck :D any chance of you posting who your teams are playing each time? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted January 7, 2005 Share Posted January 7, 2005 Re: Veresov Value System(Give it a try)!! there is value in betting both of themaccording to your system, which may or may not be accurate. Do you have an historical betting record that would lead one to believe that your assessment of 50% being the probaility that West Ham or Preston will win is an accurate assessment? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
veresov Posted January 7, 2005 Author Share Posted January 7, 2005 Re: Veresov Value System(Give it a try)!! Yes, I do have a historical record. I am not a tout, so it isn't published anywhere except in my notebook which keeps track of every wager I have ever made. My friend and I developed an application (not for sale) which selects the best games as far as value is concerned. The two games mentioned are the best according to the app. Thanks, Veresov Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
veresov Posted January 7, 2005 Author Share Posted January 7, 2005 Re: Veresov Value System(Give it a try)!! Money management is critical as all of you know. I wager 5% of my bankroll on all of my plays. I don't have any * rating system for each play. I only play my best since I hate to lose and I only play games where I see significant value. So with that being said, I will be wagering $50 dollars each on both Preston and West Ham tomorrow. Thanks, Veresov Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
veresov Posted January 7, 2005 Author Share Posted January 7, 2005 Re: Veresov Value System(Give it a try)!! Just identified 1 more value play for today. Take Burnley (1X) against Liverpool. Burnley win odds are 6.22 and the draw odds are 3.77 at Pinnacle. 37% of total wager on home win and 63% of total wager on draw. Example, if you are wagering $100, then put $37 on Burnley win and $63 on the draw. Thanks, Veresov Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sco Posted January 7, 2005 Share Posted January 7, 2005 Re: Veresov Value System(Give it a try)!! Id always be wary of laying Liverpool, even with some of the big name out. The draw might be a good call though, but I dont think liverpool will lose...at least i hope they dont! Id be interested to here how your app was made (ie which language) and what it does as computer science is my uni course... Sco Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
veresov Posted January 7, 2005 Author Share Posted January 7, 2005 Re: Veresov Value System(Give it a try)!! It is written in OMNIS Studio which is a Rapid Application Development tool. My friend has done all of the programming with me handling the acquiring of data sources. The Burnley selection was spit out by our application with a 51% chance to win or draw. The (1X) correlates to a +126 or 2.26 odds. Our value formula then says the following: (.51 * 2.26) - 1 = 15% edge We have done reasonably well the last 2 years and I ran across this forum and decided to participate. We also have programs for college basketball and baseball. Baseball has been our best to date. Liverpool may very well win. Our app thinks they have 49% chance to do so, but as the formula above demonstrates, the value is with the (1X) and not betting Liverpool to win. The Liverpool formula would be the following: (.49 * 1.45) - 1 = -29% This is horrible and the bet will lose you alot of money over time. There is no value in Liverpool today regardless if they win this game. Thanks, Veresov Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sco Posted January 7, 2005 Share Posted January 7, 2005 Re: Veresov Value System(Give it a try)!! I was interested in how your application figures out the probablity of the win? Sco Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruise Pristene Posted January 7, 2005 Share Posted January 7, 2005 Re: Veresov Value System(Give it a try)!! sounds good to me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
veresov Posted January 7, 2005 Author Share Posted January 7, 2005 Re: Veresov Value System(Give it a try)!! That is something that cannot be answered simply. My friend is an expert in Neural Networks. He has ran my database of 25000 games through this network. This network learns based on the inputs you give it. After trying hundreds of different inputs and neural network topologies, we came up with a network that is profitable. It took several months before we had anything of use. It would take hours to explain to you how we finally go to the point where we are now. My friend also asked that I not divulge any of this information as it would be hard work wasted. Thank you for your interest. Veresov Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
veresov Posted January 7, 2005 Author Share Posted January 7, 2005 Re: Veresov Value System(Give it a try)!! Burnley v. Liverpool has been cancelled so the bet is now null and void. Veresov Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
all_funkt_up Posted January 8, 2005 Share Posted January 8, 2005 Re: Veresov Value System(Give it a try)!! Interesting thread. Great to see theory behind punts, even if I dont understand all the details. Will defo follow this thread with interest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
veresov Posted January 8, 2005 Author Share Posted January 8, 2005 Re: Veresov Value System(Give it a try)!! Well guys we posted a profit for today. Preston (Loss) West Ham (Win) Starting Bankroll $1000 Record (1-1) Current Bankroll $1025 Thanks, Veresov Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
veresov Posted January 8, 2005 Author Share Posted January 8, 2005 Re: Veresov Value System(Give it a try)!! Plays for Sunday, January 9th. One play for the day guys. Take Lecce in the Italy (Serie A) League (1.9 * .6) - 1 = 14% return Good luck with your plays. Veresov Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
investor Posted January 8, 2005 Share Posted January 8, 2005 Re: Veresov Value System(Give it a try)!! Nice start, I wish you good luck with this! Cheers, i. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plez Posted January 10, 2005 Share Posted January 10, 2005 Re: Veresov Value System(Give it a try)!! Veresov - sounds very interesting! For what it's worth, my systems usually involve neural networks somewhere along the line.... What sort of yield does your backtesting predict? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plez Posted January 10, 2005 Share Posted January 10, 2005 Re: Veresov Value System(Give it a try)!! I don't suppose you want to disclose what input variables your network uses?! Are they just simple goal, result and form data? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyNeth Posted January 10, 2005 Share Posted January 10, 2005 Re: Veresov Value System(Give it a try)!! Lecce drew 1-1 this weekend. I'm very interested in this Veresov, despite this result. Following with much interest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
veresov Posted January 12, 2005 Author Share Posted January 12, 2005 Re: Veresov Value System(Give it a try)!! Just returned from snowboarding trip at Vail. We lost this past Sunday with Lecce, but we will bounce back this week. Starting Bankroll $1000 Record (1-2) Current Bankroll $975 As I said before, I cannot divulge any information about our inputs since my friend is the main contributor to this project. I will be back with plays for the weekend. Thank you all for your interest. Veresov Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
veresov Posted January 15, 2005 Author Share Posted January 15, 2005 Re: Veresov Value System(Give it a try)!! 1/15 COLCHESTER (.5 * 2.5) - 1 = 25% return Good luck, Veresov Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
investor Posted January 15, 2005 Share Posted January 15, 2005 Re: Veresov Value System(Give it a try)!! Curious how this will go. Please keep us posted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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