dannkez2407 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 ok just started something similar to this on horses, the idea is to take the form of teams across the last 6 games at home or away depending on where they are playing (using a combination should there not be enough games played) then taking the teams history against similar teams as their opponents in the league based on position, thus by creating a percentage from this, you inevitably create a set of odds. I will only use 1x2 minus the draw element, all premier leagues from any country and no cup competitions. Im looking for value of 5% to create a similar yield. Now i have run this so far for 18 games and successfully had 14 correct providing a strike rate of 77.78% and total profit of +46pts. On starting this thread i will start from scratch of course, however for my own sanctity i will update my previous results aswell for my own personal interest. start with a 1000pt bank, 10pts a game, level field saturday games Back Molde @ 1.76 Lay Mypa47 @ 3.2 Back Helsinki @ 1.35 :hope:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorro Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Re: All in the value for footy I wonder why you bet on something with odds of 1.35. Isn't that a bit too low & risky? Once in a while you get confronted with a draw (or even a loss) and you'll need a good run of right bets to recover from that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted July 28, 2011 Author Share Posted July 28, 2011 Re: All in the value for footy its all down to value, i could bak 100 results at 1.35 and so long as their correct value is less than that, i will make a profit. if i back 100 results at 10.0, the result is the same....its just the strike rate will be lower all i have to determine is what i make as value is better than what the odds suggest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawalahmed Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Re: All in the value for footy hi dann.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted July 28, 2011 Author Share Posted July 28, 2011 Re: All in the value for footy Law my man, i hope you are well... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Re: All in the value for footy the idea is to take the form of teams across the last 6 games at home or away depending on where they are playing then taking the teams history against similar teams as their opponents in the league based on position It wont be profitable longer term. There is no underlying logic in your criteria. You will end in tears. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donkson Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Re: All in the value for footy It wont be profitable longer term. There is no underlying logic in your criteria. You will end in tears. Cool evidence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Re: All in the value for footy Cool evidence. The evidence will be in the pudding:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 Re: All in the value for footy Hahaha nothing like a synic to brighten your day. Sorry Mulkis but if u have nothing constructive to say then please don't write on my thread My evidence is sound and has indeed made me a living now for a small while. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Re: All in the value for footy Ok. Show us:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted July 30, 2011 Author Share Posted July 30, 2011 Re: All in the value for footy BLIMEY, GIVE ME A CHANCE LOL Sundays.. Lay Honka @ 3.1 Lay Haugesund @ 3.4 Back Stabaek @ 1.64 Lay Jaro @ 2.96 :hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donkson Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Re: All in the value for footy The evidence will be in the pudding:) So you just make blind statements with no reasoning at all, and claim that you'll be proven correct? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 Re: All in the value for footy Back Molde @ 1.76...+7.6 Lay Mypa47 @ 3.2...-10 Back Helsinki @ 1.35...+3.5 Lay Honka @ 3.1...-10 Lay Haugesund @ 3.4...-10 Back Stabaek @ 1.64...+6.4 Lay Jaro @ 2.96...+5.1 Profit this time = -7.4 Total stake = 70 Total profit = -7.4 Yield = -10.57% Strike rate = 4/7 = 57.14% plus historical Total stake = 250 Total profit = 39.6 Yield = 15.84% Strike rate = 18/25 = 72% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Re: All in the value for footy Now I finally have some time to elaborate on my scepticism on proposed system. Sorry failed to explain it in my previous post and I admit it was quite arrogant. Sorry for that. But now some more thougts on that: So this system is based on 2 criteria: 1) recent form and 2) "similar" teams. In my experience "recent form" in its own is a very weak criteria for it is not accounting for the strenght of opposition. And it looks like Dankez realises this and thats why he included another criteria "teams history against similar teams as their opponents in the league based on position". This is quite a plousable attemt to make a stron criteria, but the problem is how Dankez describes "similar team". It looks like "similarity" is based solely on league position. So, if I understand correctly, it means that Dankez considers teams as "similar" if they at some time in the past shared the same league position (relative or absolute) with the teams in question (teams going to play and Dankez going to bet on them). The problem is that league positioning has notthing to to with the "similarity" of teams. Thats why I see no logic in those two criteria. Previous "historical" performance of Dankez system makes no impression for me at all, for it is only 18 games and it is way to small sample to make any conclusions. At least after 100-200 games one could make any reserved conclusions about efficiency of the system. Anyway, it would be interesting to see how it will shape. So please go on with your system Dankez:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 Re: All in the value for footy Cheers mulkis, my system is slightly more detailed than I explained as I only explained some of the main areas. I have previously met and taken advice on a few professionals with this system so as they say the proof will be in the pudding... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 Re: All in the value for footy Back GAIS @ 1.42 back Kalmar @ 1.62 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 Re: All in the value for footy Back Gais...+4.2 back kalmar...-10 Profit this time= -5.8 total stake= 90 Total profit = -13.2 total yield = -14.67% strike rate= 5/9 = 55.56% Plus historical Total stake = 270 total profit = 33.8 total yield = 12.52% strike rate = 19/27 = 70.37% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted August 2, 2011 Author Share Posted August 2, 2011 Re: All in the value for footy tomorrows games Back Haugesund @ 1.6 Back Brann @ 1.96 :hope:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted August 3, 2011 Author Share Posted August 3, 2011 Re: All in the value for footy Back Haugesund @ 1.6...+6 Back Brann @ 1.96...+9.6 Profit this time= 15.6 total stake= 110 Total profit = 2.4 total yield = 2.18% strike rate= 7/11 = 63.64% Plus historical Total stake = 270 total profit = 49.4 total yield = 18.3% strike rate = 21/29 = 72.41% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted August 4, 2011 Author Share Posted August 4, 2011 Re: All in the value for footy saturdays Lay HJK Helsinki @ 1.92 :hope:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted August 7, 2011 Author Share Posted August 7, 2011 Re: All in the value for footy Lay HJK Helsinki @ 1.92...-10 Profit this time= -10 total stake= 120 Total profit = -7.6 total yield = -6.33% strike rate= 7/12 = 58.33% Plus historical Total stake = 280 total profit = 39.4 total yield = 14.07% strike rate = 21/30 = 70% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted August 11, 2011 Author Share Posted August 11, 2011 Re: All in the value for footy Friday Lay IFK @2.92 Lay JJK @2.44 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted August 12, 2011 Author Share Posted August 12, 2011 Re: All in the value for footy Lay IFK @2.92...+5.21 Lay JJK @2.44...+6.94 Profit this time= +12.15 total stake= 140 Total profit = +4.55 total yield = 3.25% strike rate= 9/14 = 64.28% Plus historical Total stake = 320 total profit = 51.55 total yield = 16.11% strike rate = 23/32= 71.88% __________________ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 Re: All in the value for footy For today Lay Kalmar @3.35 for tomorrow FC Inter @1.44 Back JJK @1.79 :hope:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 Re: All in the value for footy Lay Kalmar @3.35...+4.26 Profit this time= +4.26 total stake= 150 Total profit = +8.81 total yield = 5.87% strike rate= 10/15 = 66.67% Plus historical Total stake = 330 total profit = 55.81 total yield = 16.91% strike rate = 24/33= 72.73% Im away now for five days, so will aim to post again Friday/Saturday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted August 20, 2011 Author Share Posted August 20, 2011 Re: All in the value for footy Sunday Lay JJK @ 2.98 Lay VPS @ 2.36 Lay Rosenborg @ 2.88 Back Stabaek @ 1.76 Back Tromso @ 1.76 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: All in the value for footy Lay JJK @ 2.98...+5.05 Lay VPS @ 2.36...+7.35 Lay Rosenborg @ 2.88...+5.32 Back Stabaek @ 1.76...-10 Back Tromso @ 1.76...+7.6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: All in the value for footy Profit this time= +15.32 total stake= 200 Total profit = +24.13 total yield = 12.07% strike rate= 14/20 = 70% Plus historical Total stake = 380 total profit = 71.13 total yield = 18.72% strike rate = 28/38 = 73.68% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: All in the value for footy Monday Back Molde @ 1.65 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 Re: All in the value for footy Back Molde @ 1.65...+6.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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